Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Ireland

 

First Thoughts:

Ireland's format for their National Final with six entries competing inside a late night show with a small stage is a recipe for disaster and it reflects the nation's recent results.

I am not sure what happened this year. Was it a reverse psychology effort or were Irish people fed up sending the same type of entries and decided to send something different?

With their last qualification dating back to 2018, Ireland decided to send 'Doomsday Blue' a quirky entry with gothic elements and a theatrical staging.

Bambie Thug is an  interesting persona and I am very curious to see what could Ireland do with this one in a big stage.

Staging and vocals need a lot of work to make the entry competitive and odds are not on their side but I do remain open-minded on its chances to qualify.

It will stand out from the other entries but will need ideally a second half draw in a friendly Semi - Final. 

Ireland will at least have some media coverage that did not have in the recent past and there is definitely a niche audience for this one to help it reach the qualification threshold.

This is a very interesting case study for Eurovision as this is a hybrid genre entry tested for the first time.

For the moment I have Ireland on the 50/50 list to qualify leaning on qualification. We need to see them on a big stage with proper entries to see if 'Doomsday Blue' does stand out. Most probably it does.

It reminds me of...

Romania '19 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 22/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Borderline qualifier, Avoid Bottom-3 in Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 20-60

Final: Js: 0-5 - TV: 10-25 - Total: 10-30

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ireland finally qualifying to the Final and then ditched at #2 or #3 and finish in Bottom-3 but who cares? They finally made it to the Final. 

After all this is the reason EBU changed the voting rules for the Semi - Finals.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about Ireland in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Slovenia

First Thoughts:

Slovenia has one of the weakest records in the history of Eurovision. 

In 28 participations the nation has finished 7th twice and 10th once and these are their only Top-10 rankings in their history...

The last time they finished in Top-10 was in 2001...

Having these numbers in mind gives you a better perspective of Slovenia's capabilities. 

Veronika has a well produced video clip which is a good sign, meaning that the broadcaster is taking Eurovision seriously, especially after last year's decent result. 

The problem is the song itself. It is not a coincidence that there are so many references to Iru's song for Georgia from last year. The first 35 seconds are promising and from there the song starts spiraling downward.

It lacks emotions, energy and any call for action. If we still had the 50/50 voting system in the Semi - Final, Veronika would have been a borderline qualifier. Now I do consider it a borderline non - qualifier and Slovenia will need an amazing staging and some friendly faces in the same Semi - Final to have some luck to qualify, ideally as many Slavic nations as possible.

If they do qualify in the Final somehow, I do expect a similar result to last year 18th-24th having at least a dozen guaranteed points from their neighbors and some jury ones, just enough to avoid the last place. 

The allocation draw and the running order will be crucial for their qualification.

It reminds me of...

Croatia '10 (NQ), Georgia '23 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Borderline qualifier, 18th-21st in Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-50

Final: Js: 15-40 - TV: 5-20 - Total: 20-60

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is a tough one. I will  have a better idea after the allocation draw. I will go with my instinct and say it will finish 11th in Semi - Final. I still have an open mind about this one.

If both Serbia and Croatia along with at least two of Poland, Czechia, Ukraine and Austria are in the same Semi, things might look better for them.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about Slovenia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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