Slovenia has one of the weakest records in the history of Eurovision.
In 28 participations the nation has finished 7th twice and 10th once and these are their only Top-10 rankings in their history...
The last time they finished in Top-10 was in 2001...
Having these numbers in mind gives you a better perspective of Slovenia's capabilities.
Veronika has a well produced video clip which is a good sign, meaning that the broadcaster is taking Eurovision seriously, especially after last year's decent result.
The problem is the song itself. It is not a coincidence that there are so many references to Iru's song for Georgia from last year. The first 35 seconds are promising and from there the song starts spiraling downward.
It lacks emotions, energy and any call for action. If we still had the 50/50 voting system in the Semi - Final, Veronika would have been a borderline qualifier. Now I do consider it a borderline non - qualifier and Slovenia will need an amazing staging and some friendly faces in the same Semi - Final to have some luck to qualify, ideally as many Slavic nations as possible.
If they do qualify in the Final somehow, I do expect a similar result to last year 18th-24th having at least a dozen guaranteed points from their neighbors and some jury ones, just enough to avoid the last place.
The allocation draw and the running order will be crucial for their qualification.
It reminds me of...
Croatia '10 (NQ), Georgia '23 (NQ)
Televoting Potential: 5/10
Jury Potential: 6.5/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 6/10
My Opinion: 6/10
Total: 31/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001%
Best case scenario:
Borderline qualifier, 18th-21st in Final
Worst case scenario:
Bottom-3 in Semi - Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 25-50
Final: Js: 15-40 - TV: 5-20 - Total: 20-60
What do I see in my crystal ball?
This is a tough one. I will have a better idea after the allocation draw. I will go with my instinct and say it will finish 11th in Semi - Final. I still have an open mind about this one.
If both Serbia and Croatia along with at least two of Poland, Czechia, Ukraine and Austria are in the same Semi, things might look better for them.
Update: You can hear some thoughts about Slovenia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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