Ireland's format for their National Final with six entries competing inside a late night show with a small stage is a recipe for disaster and it reflects the nation's recent results.
I am not sure what happened this year. Was it a reverse psychology effort or were Irish people fed up sending the same type of entries and decided to send something different?
With their last qualification dating back to 2018, Ireland decided to send 'Doomsday Blue' a quirky entry with gothic elements and a theatrical staging.
Bambie Thug is an interesting persona and I am very curious to see what could Ireland do with this one in a big stage.
Staging and vocals need a lot of work to make the entry competitive and odds are not on their side but I do remain open-minded on its chances to qualify.
It will stand out from the other entries but will need ideally a second half draw in a friendly Semi - Final.
Ireland will at least have some media coverage that did not have in the recent past and there is definitely a niche audience for this one to help it reach the qualification threshold.
This is a very interesting case study for Eurovision as this is a hybrid genre entry tested for the first time.
For the moment I have Ireland on the 50/50 list to qualify leaning on qualification. We need to see them on a big stage with proper entries to see if 'Doomsday Blue' does stand out. Most probably it does.
It reminds me of...
Romania '19 (NQ)
Televoting Potential: 7/10
Jury Potential: 1/10
Staging Potential: 7/10
Momentum: 2/10
My Opinion: 5/10
Total: 22/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001%
Best case scenario:
Borderline qualifier, Avoid Bottom-3 in Final
Worst case scenario:
Last in Semi - Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 20-60
Final: Js: 0-5 - TV: 10-25 - Total: 10-30
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Ireland finally qualifying to the Final and then ditched at #2 or #3 and finish in Bottom-3 but who cares? They finally made it to the Final.
After all this is the reason EBU changed the voting rules for the Semi - Finals.
Update: You can hear some thoughts about Ireland in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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