Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Ireland

 

Laika Party - Emmy

Every artist has a chance to go to Eurovision if they are in the right place in the right time. 

Emmy got lucky when the big names failed to deliver in Eurosong 2025 and got the ticket to Basel. 

'Laika Party' gives me the impression of a MGP reject that tried its luck in a different country and actually made it. 

There is not much to comment about the actual entry, a dance track made for Eurovision Junior talking about a Soviet dog going to space, performed by a Norwegian artist that will represent Ireland...

Ireland has a very thin chance of qualifying and that has to do with its Semi - Final being full of friends (UK, Australia, Malta) and performing in the first part of the Semi - Final that is full of slow tempo entries. 

In order to have a chance, they will need at least a couple of high scores from their friends that I highly doubt they will get and also to receive these 1s-3s from many countries, which is not happening either.

I firmly believe that Ireland is the biggest downgrade from 2024 and something needs to be done with their national selection process that being hosted in a small studio, fails to evaluate correctly an entry with potential for a bigger stage.

I have Ireland in my certain non-qualifiers list for the moment and I reckon this is where it will stay till the end. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ireland finishing last or penultimate in the Semi - Final honouring their pre-Bambie Thug tradition. If a miracle happens and they qualify to the Final, 'Laika' will be the strongest contender for the wooden spoon.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 21.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-45

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 10-25 - Tot: 10-35

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Does Ireland have enough to avoid Bottom-3 in Semi-Final?

You can hear my thoughts about Ireland in the 3rd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Ireland

 

First Thoughts:

Ireland's format for their National Final with six entries competing inside a late night show with a small stage is a recipe for disaster and it reflects the nation's recent results.

I am not sure what happened this year. Was it a reverse psychology effort or were Irish people fed up sending the same type of entries and decided to send something different?

With their last qualification dating back to 2018, Ireland decided to send 'Doomsday Blue' a quirky entry with gothic elements and a theatrical staging.

Bambie Thug is an  interesting persona and I am very curious to see what could Ireland do with this one in a big stage.

Staging and vocals need a lot of work to make the entry competitive and odds are not on their side but I do remain open-minded on its chances to qualify.

It will stand out from the other entries but will need ideally a second half draw in a friendly Semi - Final. 

Ireland will at least have some media coverage that did not have in the recent past and there is definitely a niche audience for this one to help it reach the qualification threshold.

This is a very interesting case study for Eurovision as this is a hybrid genre entry tested for the first time.

For the moment I have Ireland on the 50/50 list to qualify leaning on qualification. We need to see them on a big stage with proper entries to see if 'Doomsday Blue' does stand out. Most probably it does.

It reminds me of...

Romania '19 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 22/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Borderline qualifier, Avoid Bottom-3 in Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 20-60

Final: Js: 0-5 - TV: 10-25 - Total: 10-30

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ireland finally qualifying to the Final and then ditched at #2 or #3 and finish in Bottom-3 but who cares? They finally made it to the Final. 

After all this is the reason EBU changed the voting rules for the Semi - Finals.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about Ireland in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things ESC2024 E01

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Ireland

 

First Thoughts:

Ireland's National Final packed in a weekly show has become one of my guilty pleasures during the NF season, however this format is destined to produce poor/average entries whose only goal is to qualify to the Final.

Ireland will try to break its bad streak (2018 the last presence in Final) and they have a mountain to climb.

Wild Youth could be a thing if we were in Eurovision '92-'95. We Are One is a classic anthemic teenage school band entry and this is not a good sign. There is an audience for this kind of songs but I heavily doubt is one that watches Eurovision.

The Allocation draw has not helped either with Ireland being drawn in the wrong part of the Semi Final (first) in the powerhouse loaded Semi Final (first). UK is also voting in the other Semi Final and assuming that the first half will produce maximum three qualifiers and knowing that Norway already has a stronger entry, Ireland needs to surpass three entries between Serbia, Portugal, Malta, Latvia, and Croatia...

It reminds me of...

Slovenia '22, Ireland '21, Denmark '16

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 25.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Marginal qualification and a Bottom-3 result

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify and finishes last in Semi - Final.

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

Not to Qualify with a 55% - 75% certainty

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ireland drawn to perform at slots #2 or #3 finishing in Bottom-3 of the Semi Final.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 10. Ireland...wants a rich result

 

Qualifying Record: 6/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/14

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 5 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 7. Ireland

 

7. Ireland

Qualifying Record: 6/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q