This first part will be dedicated to the Jury results and like Panos says in the intro of each episode, take it away.
A few words about the Prediction Project. Every year we are bombarded with polls and prediction models and simulations that try to predict the outcome of the Contest, some times with success and sometimes not.
Instead of launching another poll, or create a model that combines poll results, odds and historic data we decided to take a different approach and ask the people that analyse Eurovision professionally and/or are involved in covering the Contest in social media.
We have formed a panel of 16 Eurovision analysts/experts from various parts of Europe and Australia and gave them some very simple instructions:
Please prepare 2 separate rankings of the following countries - one would be your Grand Final Public Vote prediction and the other your Grand Final Jury Vote prediction: Israel, Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Sweden, Norway, Australia, Finland, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France, Italy, Czechia, Poland, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Slovenia, Serbia, Albania (26) * As you can see, we will only be ranking countries that have an objectively realistic chance of a left hand side finish with at least one of the two constituencies in the final - no point in ranking every single one of them. * Individual responses/rankings will not be posted.
We are NOT voting as jurors. We are NOT voting based on personal taste/preference. We ARE trying to PREDICT how the jury and televote will vote in May. * We will only present the final totals - one for Grand Final Public Vote prediction and one for Grand Final Jury Vote prediction.
The 16 members of the panel are:
(Greece) (UK) (Cyprus) Shae (Israel) Rob Furber from (UK) Steef Van Gorkum from (Netherlands) (Ireland) (Greece)Alex Panayi (Cyprus)
Davide Maistrello (Italy)
(Portugal)
(Denmark)
(Netherlands)
(Slovenia)
(Estonia/Indonesia)
from (Australia)
I would like to thank all the members of the panel for their contribution and time dedicated to this project.
Now it is time to dive in in the results trying to give more context. To calculate the results, we have added the rankings from 1-26 of all members of the panel, but I have also analysed their responses splitting them in two sub-groups:
a. The professional bettors/analysts that are actively involved in the betting aspect of Eurovision with 7 members (Matt Rickard, Panos Zannettos, Rob Furber, CDbjerg, Villu Veedla, Escbetting and myself).
b. The Eurovision experts (bloggers, content creators, former Eurovision participant, analysts not involved in betting) with 9 members.
The reason for dividing the panel is to check for discrepancies between the two groups and to verify if some entries have more gravitas with an individual group. For clarity, I will call the first group from now on Analysts and the second group Experts.
I will start my analysis with the countries that did not make it to the Top-10 of the Jury vote, mentioning only the ones that could add some value when trying to predict the final outcome.
The lost and forgotten
There are only two countries in the list of the 26 that failed to be included in the Top-10 ranking of all members and these two countries are Poland and Serbia. Poland's best result was 18th and Serbia's 16th.
Germany, Cyprus, Slovenia and Azerbaijan were included in just a single person's Top-10.
Estonia, Lithuania and Luxembourg were included in 2 Top-10s and Norway in 3.
The low tier discrepancies
In this section we might have some indications about the fate of some countries next week. The countries I am referring to are Belgium, UK and Finland.
Belgium and UK had some low-mid Top-10 rankings among the Experts but Belgium got only a 10th ranking among the Analysts and UK was blanked by all of them!
Finland on the other hand had a perfect balance (3/7 - 3/9) mentions but all of them in the low Top-10 region leaving Finland in the middle of the table.
The almost made the Top-10 list
Israel, Greece and Belgium are the countries that barely missed the Top-10. Israel would be happy with a similar result next week, that would translate to a score near the 60-90 points threshold, meaning that the Juries might be softer with them this year.
Greece should be happy as well with a similar result and Belgium is the one that underperformed, having in mind that Belgium's path to a Top-10/left hand side table results passes through the Juries.
The Lower Top-10/ 3rd Tier group
Australia, Albania and Malta is the last group of countries that was not included in the majority of Top-10s and were very close to a 3 countries' tie. Australia and Malta had more mentions in the Analysts' group and Albania was balanced between the two but the high scores came from the Analysts' group as well.
The Solids but with not high enough scores
Czechia finished 7th in the Jury Prediction and had 10/16 Top-10 mentions, but only a Top-3 mention coming from the Experts group. It is indicative as well that 7/10 mentions come from that same group and only 3 mentions from the Analysts.
There are some solid indications that Czechia is more of a fans' entry and could struggle to find points with both constituencies in real life. I will jump ahead of the game and say that Czechia performed really bad in the Public vote predictor with just 2/16 very low Top-10 mentions both of them coming of the Experts group and this is an entry that has to compete in a Televote only Semi - Final.
I do believe that the Predictor is a good tell for Czechia's chances in the Semi - Final and I would not be surprised if they fail to qualify.
In 6th place is Italy, mentioned by 11/16 panellists in their Top-10 but without any Top-3 mention! Have we all mentioned Italy out of habit or there is something hidden there?
Is Italy capable of getting consistently the 1s-4s from the majority of the countries that could secure a Top-10 result with Juries? The Predictor says they are.
Commercial break before the crunch time!
Before going to the Top-5 of the Jury, it is worth mentioning that the other 21 countries out of the Top-5 received in total 5 mentions for a Top-3 result (Belgium, Czechia, Greece, Lithuania, Australia) and 0 mentions for a Top-2 or a Winner.
All the big rankings are concentrated in the Top-5, which is natural when you ask someone to predict the result and the majority will head to the same more or less direction but cannot be reflected in the actual scoreboard of the Jury vote, because jurors there vote with specific criteria and tastes that broadens their horizons.
And now the time you were waiting for! The Top-5...
5. Switzerland
Top-10 mentions: 13/16 (7/7 Analysts - 6/9 Experts)
Winner mentions: 1/16 (Experts)
Runner up mentions: 1/16 (Experts)
Top-3 mentions: 3/16 (Analysts)
The 'professionals' rate Switzerland higher, however their top rankings came from the Experts, suggesting that Switzerland is a solid Jury entry and will be voted by the majority of the countries. The Top-5 result seems plausible and that could secure a Top-10 finish overall, which is a great result for a hosting entry.
4. Sweden
Top-10 mentions: 15/16 (7/7 Analysts - 8/9 Experts)
Winner mentions: 0/16
Runner up mentions: 0/16
Top-3 mentions: 2/16 (2 Analysts)
Sweden finished just above Switzerland thanks to the two extra mentions, scoring consistently but not in the Top-3 region which is expected. The most common ranking for them is 4th (6 mentions) and 6th (4 mentions). I do think that the prediction has nailed Sweden's Jury ranking which is expected to finish 4th or worst case scenario 5th.
3. Austria
Top-10 mentions: 16/16
Winner mentions: 1/16 (Expert)
Runner up mentions: 6/16 (3 Analysts - 3 Experts)
Top-3 mentions: 4/16 (All Experts!)
Austria managed to get Top-10 rankings from all 16 members of the panel and 11 of them were Top-3 mentions, however there is a significant discrepancy between the two subgroups which is worth mentioning.
8/11 Top-3 mentions come from the Experts group while the more than half of the Analysts have not ranked them there.
Their lower ranking was 8th and there were 3 occasions that it was ranked 7th. These results have strengthened my assessment about Austria, that even though it does tick many boxes with the Jury, it is not everyone's cup of tea because of genre/staging potential/artist's charisma and could be blanked or get low-mid table scores with a number of countries.
It does have a chance to finish 3rd, in accordance with our Prediction, but it could also finish lower having a higher volatility than the other Top-4 countries.
2. Netherlands
Top-10 mentions: 16/16
Winner mentions: 1/16 (Analyst)
Runner up mentions: 7/16 (4 Analysts - 3 Experts)
Top-3 mentions: 2/16 (1-1)
Netherlands had a slightly worse record than Austria in Top-3 mentions (10 vs 11/16), however was more solid in being rated in the Top-5 than Austria that in the end gave them the upper hand in the head to head battle.
The professional bettors/punters have given Netherlands the extra push to overcome Austria. The lower rating that Netherlands received was 10th by an Expert.
And the Jury Winner of the Talk About all Things ESC Prediction is....
1. France
Top-10 mentions: 16/16
Winner mentions: 13/16 (6/7 Analysts - 7/9 Experts)
Runner up mentions: 2/16 ( Experts)
Top-3 mentions: 0/16
France's lowest rank for the Jury scoreboard was 4th! by an analyst and all the other members of the panel rated France 1st or 2nd.
This is an impressive performance suggesting that the market is either underestimating France or overestimates Austria. Our prediction has a very clear winner and that could suggest that France is heading not only for the Jury win but probably for a big Jury score as well.
Only time will tell if our Prediction was successful but there were definitely some results that offered plenty food for thought.
If there was a medal ceremony for the rankings the results would be like this
1. France 13-2-0
2. Netherlands 1-7-2
3. Austria 1-6-4
4. Switzerland 1-1-3
5. Sweden 0-0-2
6. Belgium/Czechia/Greece/Lithuania/Norway 0-0-1
The Talk About all Things ESC team's Jury results
Just for the fun of it, Panos, Matt and myself decided to do a combined result with the rankings of all three of us that are similar to the panel's result with a few exceptions.
The biggest discrepancy between the overall and our prediction is that we have swapped Austria's and Switzerland's places, having an all French Top-3.
The other noticeable discrepancy between the two results is that Czechia is missing from our Top-10 rankings.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments section.
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