One of the most open and unpredictable Semi - Finals since the 2nd Semi back in 2018 will taka place tonight and get ready for a bumpy ride, especially if your favourite/country is in that Semi.
With the exception of Georgia and Montenegro, every other country is in the mix for qualification and does have a chance to make it to the Final.
I do not remember a Semi - Final where only 3 or 4 countries were considered safe/certain qualifiers.
Not many things changed compared to the Power Rankings from last week with a notable exception.
So let's take it away!
1. Israel
The elephant is still in the room and, until further notice, their Public vote appeal should be taken seriously. A beautiful song that could be a Top-10 entry any other year, now is elevated in a Top-5 contender.
A RAI leak is not expected this year so I am playing safe here. To win the Semi - Final @1.86 has no value (last year was trading @20-30). If you think that their televote appeal has faded, a lay would be the right call. A no call for me.
Projected points: 140-160
2. Finland
The pimp slot, the epic staging and Erika Vikman's performance are the perfect combo for a great result in a Public vote only environment.
They do have a chance for the Semi - Final win currently @ 3.15 that could create some momentum for the Final. Fair price.
Projected points: 130-150
3. Austria
Not sold in that entry and I do believe that is way more vulnerable as a favourite than people might think. Black and white is not working in my opinion, giving to the performance a forced feeling of making art for art's sake. I'm not impressed with JJ's voice despite being an opera singer and the lack of charisma is evident.
This is the make or break moment for Austria's chances to contend and I am not very confident for their chances. To Finish in Top-3 in the Semi Final is currently trading @1.64 (2.56 to Not finish Top-3) and I do have a strong position built the last month @3.75 plus a fun bet at stoiximan (for those betting in Greece and Cyprus ) for Austria not to finish in Top-5 in Semi @7.
Projected points: 100-120
4. Luxembourg
Luxembourg is creating a school of entries that do the basics very well, go under the radar for the whole season and then they turn up when it matters. Laura Thorn owns the stage and Luxembourg does have a chance to sneak in the Top-3 of the Semi, currently @4.7 has a decent value. It is added in my book, the same with a fun bet to win the Semi @ 361 👀 now @60.
Projected points: 100-120
5. Australia
The other 'winner' of the rehearsals, solidifying its candidacy for a Top-10 spot in the Final. Fun but also credible, traditionally supported by the Juries, Australia could do very well with both constituencies.
Almost certain qualifier but there is no value in these odds.
Projected points: 80-100
6. Lithuania
I had Lithuania a bit higher last week. It is one of my favourite entries of the year. It is oozing quality but could be perceived as too dark for Eurovision. Lithuania has enough friends in the Semi to sail to the Final, but crazier things have happened and for that reason I leave Lithuania alone for the moment.
Projected points: 70-90
7. Malta
The roller coaster with Malta through the season continues. Going all in with the kitch/trash presentation might have been a step too further and could risk their qualifying chances because it is Malta that has traditionally suffered with the public. To qualify @1.23 feels very short and there is value in opposing it.
Projected points: 50-80
8. Armenia
The combination of its staging in a very friendly Semi and the running order, after a bunch of meh entries, is ideal to secure the qualification @2 and was around the 2.5 mark just yesterday.
The current price is fair but I have it in my book @2.45.
Projected points: 45-65
9. Greece
Greece is still borderline but they have done their best to give themselves a chance. I still believe that it will need the diaspora the make the cut and still unsure if they will show up. I have a considerable position in the NQ and I might consider do some trading during the show.
The Q is currently @ 1.36 implying that there is still a chance to miss the Final. If traders smell blood there this could become tricky. Klavdia has been strong vocally yesterday.
Projected points: 40-60
10. Serbia
Serbia loves to send entries that will always be the definition of borderline usually finishing 8th-10th. Serbia has done everything in their hand to increase their chances but they will need once again the diaspora and their friends.
Projected points: 40-60
11. Ireland
Still in the mix for qualification but this is a very bizarre entry and I fail to see who will actually pick the phone and vote for this one. The early draw does not help either. I have a small position on its Non qualification but there is no value in its current odds so I will just leave alone, unless the Irish show up on live and then lay becomes a value bet...One to watch during the show...
Projected points: 30-50
12. Latvia
Another entry that has a decent chance and is still in the mix for qualification thanks to the stunning vocals, the aerial/out of this planet staging and its authenticity.
However, there is no value in its current price. Early draw a disadvantage as well.
Projected points: 25-45
13. Denmark
5 years, 5 Non qualifications and the streak will continue. An underwhelming national final staging that is barely changed for Eurovision and coming after France does not help at all.
Not real value in non-qualification but could be used in combos with other NQs to boost your odds...
Projected points: 20-40
14. Czechia
And here we are! I have laid Czechia as low as 1.15 at one point and been laying throughout the last month. All metrics point to its non-qualification and after Belgium's result on Tuesday and Belgium's result with Mustii last year, we do have a pattern now with songs being snubbed by the public when the song/artist is very self-indulged making the song about them and not the other way around.
This is my biggest position for tonight and one of the biggest positions I have ever had in a Semi Final. The NQ is still @2.38 in bet365.
Projected points: 15-35
15. Montenegro
Projected points: 15-30
16. Georgia
Projected points: 10-20
Betting Time
Semi Final 1 was a mixed bag getting 7/10 correct qualifiers and hit and missed my 2/3 bets. Norway was always a longer shot but I am gutted for Slovenia that I have read wrong.
However there is still an open bet with Estonia to win Semi 1 @9.2 that could be enough to secure a good profit.
100 more units to spend tonight, 800 left for the Final. There are many options for tonight and I had opted for the riskier road which always offers better values.
Luxembourg to Finish in Top-3 @ 4.7 x 25 units (Exchange)
Czechia to Not Qualify @ 2.38 x 50 units (bet365)
Serbia/Armenia/Lithuania/Luxembourg Combo to Qualify @ 5.04 x 25 units
Good luck with your bets tonight!
Don't forget to listen to the 12th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos where we talk about the aftermath of Semi Final 1 and share some thoughts about tonight.
You can find the episode here
Photo: Corinne Cumming
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