The French Connection

 

We are ten days away from Eurovision week and it is time to have a look at the potential, wannabe, and faux contenders.

Just for clarity, I will include once again my definition of an Eurovision contender to avoid any confusion with the Winner's market leaders. 

Contender is an entry that does stand out of the crowd, has a USP and it does offer a moment during the three minutes. That moment could be visual, sentimental, musical perfection, anything that will call the viewer/juror to action. 

This is the first half of my definition and the second half is more boring and it is about maths.

A contender is an entry that could potentially reach 500 points which is the threshold that, most of the times, secures the win. The easiest way to reach to that threshold is to score approximately 300 points with the Televote and 200 points with the juries, that has been reversed in the last two editions and could potentially happen this year as well.

The only country in the 50/50 era ('16-'24) that won without scoring 200+ points with both constituencies is Ukraine in '22 that scored 192 points with the Juries. The second lowest score with a constituency were Italy's 206 Jury points in 2021.

It is probable to have an entry this year that could win by missing the 200 points threshold with a constituency but I felt the urge to point out that this is not something that happens very often.

I will use the Tier 1-2 system to categorize the countries that I have on my list. 

Tier 1 includes the two entries that I feel that they have a winning path depending on their performance alone and that path is open with both constituencies.

My Tier 2 includes one more entry that could find a way to carve a winning path, but it could either fall short with one of the constituencies or simply do not have enough to beat both entries of Tier 1. 

Fasten your seat belts and here we go!

France never led the market and I do think that this is good news for them. They are currently trading at double digits (13.5) but this is the song to beat in my opinion.

The bar was set really high from the French and the song release did not have a great response among the fans and the market. 

There are reasonable doubts regarding its Public vote appeal but I strongly believe that this more of a fans overreaction because fans traditionally prefer the up-tempo/divas/televote magnet entries and France is not ticking these boxes.

If there is one country that has built a momentum for themselves and is contending this year, that is France! They are actively trying to win since 2016, with some decent results in that span (2nd - '21, 4th - '24, 6th- '16) and some hits and misses as well. They have tried different approaches and they might have found the recipe for success aiming to win the Juries, which is always a good head start.

They have finished 2nd twice ('21, '24) in the Jury vote, both times losing to Switzerland and maybe the third time is a charm! They have some decent results with the Public vote as well and they are the only country that is ranked in Top-3 with both constituencies in different years that has not won the Contest yet.

A Big-5 country, that has not won for 47 years, is EBU's best case scenario when it comes to the Eurovision 2025 winner and they will give them any help they will need for sure.

The reason why I think that France can win is that they have a clear path. They are my favourite to win the Jury vote and I am very confident that they will be over the 300 points threshold, not reaching Nemo and Loreen's heights but 300-325 points are within reach. It does not matter if they finish 2nd as long as they are near the 300 points psychological margin.

When it comes to Public vote I will go against the flow and state that France can score the 175-225 points that will need to contend for the win and my main argument is backed by the numbers. The 50/50 era voting patterns suggest than when an entry is voted by 33+ countries in the Jury vote, it will receive points from a similar number of countries in the Public vote as well, a pattern that secured Switzerland the win last year. 

There are always one or two Jury bait entries that end up in the Public vote Top-6 ( Switzerland/France in '24, Sweden/Italy '23, UK/Sweden '22, France/Switzerland '21, Netherlands '19 etc) and France could easily end up there. There is no reason for this rule not to apply this year and France is my main candidate to secure that spot. A Top-6 spot secures approximately the 175-180 points which are the minimum to stay in contention but I will  be bold in my prediction and state that France will be over the 200 points line.

Pros:

-The big favourite to win the Juries or be at least Top-2 with them and could score a score in the 275-325 region.

- EBU/producers will do anything in their power to boost their chances.

- France has built a momentum with both constituencies getting Top-3 results with both of them.

- The competition is less fierce for the Jury oriented entries and France will not suffer any points dilution or cannibalisation. 

- Louane is a strong/experienced performed to own the song and impress with her vocal abilities.

-Jury oriented entries are setting the tone and win since Semi - Finals changed the voting system to Public vote only.

Cons:

- The Public vote appeal of the entry. There is a possibility that France finishes low Top-10 with the Public and anything worse than 5th and marginally 6th might not be enough to maintain their lead after the Jury vote.

Winning Path:

Jury: 275-325 pts - 1st/2nd

Televote: 175-225 pts - 3rd/6th

My take:

I do believe that France will reach the 500 points threshold but my worry is if that threshold will be enough to guarantee the trophy. Anything over 525 will make things tough for then unless they overperform massively with at least one constituency. 

France is the country that has a solid foundation with both constituencies and starts the race with 375-400 guaranteed points that would be enough to be in the Top-3 worst case scenario.

You can read my early thoughts about France here.

The next country and only other country in my Tier-1 is Netherlands. Currently ranked 4th in the Winner's market trading @17, Netherlands had a very quiet pre-rehearsals season trying to avoid the madness and drama of last season.

Netherlands never convinced the market that this is the song, but maybe this is a good sign keeping in mind the variety of countries that marched in the Top with a few exceptions.

Netherlands will be contending for the Jury win along with France and I do have the suspicion that this will be the duo that will make a record for being the first two entries that will reach the 300 points with the Juries in the same year. 

Being close to that threshold will give Netherlands some breathing space and then securing a Top-4 score (225-250 pts) could be enough to keep them in contention and why not hand them the trophy. 

My two co-hosts in Talk About ESC and myself have been the biggest Netherlands supporters and the main reason is that Netherlands has the perfect package to lure points from both constituencies. They have all the boxes ticked for jurors without leaving that sour taste of trying too hard to win or being over fabricated.

The simple structure of the song, Claude's charisma and the storytelling, that I suspect we will see on stage, make Netherlands and Claude the perfect Cinderella story for Eurovision and EBU. 

I mentioned this before and will carry on saying it that Netherlands reflects better, than any other song this year, the psychological state of the Continent that goes through some rough times and needs a glimpse of hope to keep going and Claude offers that hope with his story. 

Netherlands '25 is basically a polished Swedish entry with some heart and without the hate towards the establishment that could work in their favour.

I might sound like the village idiot but Netherlands has all the ingredients to be the highest Jury finisher in the Public vote and go as high as Top-4. 

Pros:

- Netherlands has a path that does not pass through winning a constituency even though they do have a realistically chance to win the Juries. Finishing Top-2 with them but near the 275-300 region is enough for them and then finishing 4th-5th with the Public will guarantee the magic 500 points total.

- Claude is hands down the most charismatic performer of the '25 class and I do suspect that the Dutch staging will be more substance than semblance and that could be their ticket to success.

- Netherlands could be the perfect redemption story after what happened last year.

Cons:

- There is a chance that Netherlands fails to catch fire with the Public and fail to capitalise their strong Jury performance.

Winning Path:

Jury: 250-300 pts - 1st/2nd

Televote: 175-250 pts - 3rd-5th

My take:

If there is one entry that the market is still sleeping about that is Netherlands. The main reason for that happening is that the market/fans fail to assess correctly the entries that are Jury oriented but are also capable of creating emotions and are oozing authenticity. They do prefer the louder and more style over substance entries that usually fail to compete and under perform with both constituencies.

Netherlands is a true contender and a lock Top-3 entry because it is the only entry that could/will finish in Top-4 with both constituencies.

You can read my early thoughts about Netherlands here

And that completes my two entries from Tier 1 and moving to Tier 2, there is only one entry.

Now moving to the actual market leader @2.08 currently. KAJ are aiming to win the Public vote and hope/expect that their slick and vocally fine entry will have an appeal on jurors that will not stand on their way.

This is the X factor of the year and the make it or break it element for Sweden's winning chances. 

Assuming that Sweden will be near/slightly over the 300 points mark with the public, they will need to secure 200 points with the Juries which is a stretch. 

In order to feel secure for the win, Sweden will need a score near the 350 points mark which is not a given for three reasons.

1. Sweden traditionally struggles to secure high scores from certain regions.

2. There are too many televote magnets in the area (Finland. Estonia, Norway, Israel) that could dilute their score.

3. 'Bara Bada Bastu' is a great entry but still a novelty one and that might be ok for someone that will enjoy the song that night but will not feel the urge to pick up the phone and vote for it.

The other unknown for Sweden is how the Juries will react to their entry. 150 feels the limit for this type of entries and could add 20-30 points because this is Sweden, but there will be jurors that will blank them and that will affect their score. 

I might be wrong but I fail to see how Sweden can score more than J:175 - PV: 300. They could reach 500 points but not more than that. They are an Estonia catching fire or juries mark them down because of novelty away to end up finishing 3rd.

Pros:

- A locked Top-2 entry in the Public vote near or slightly over the 300 points mark.

- Perfect track record with Juries.

- They are currently leading the market.

Cons:

- There is a possibility that they finish 5th or lower with Juries and that might not be enough to secure the win even if they score 350 points with the Public.

- Sweden has won recently and that could tempt some juries to look for other options and reward other countries that are also aiming for the win.

- The current odds have no value for the risks and unknowns that the Swedish entry carries with them in Basel.

- There is a chance that Sweden has peaked too early before it really matters.

Winning Path:

Jury: 150-200 pts - 4th-6th

Televote: 300-350 pts - 1st-2nd

My take:

Sweden needs to exceed expectations with both constituencies to stay in track for the win regardless of its current price that is very short. For the reasons mentioned above, I do think that Sweden has a path but it will be very tough to pass all the hurdles along the way unharmed. They are the perfect runner-ups that would leave everyone happy, especially if they win the Public vote. 

You can read my early thoughts about Sweden here.

Trust the Process

These are the three countries that have a path for the win in my opinion. They are the only ones that can finish in Top-6 with both constituencies. I do think there will be a close race between the three of them and it is a matter of who will catch fire when it matters. 

When it comes to choosing my winner, apart from my instinct I prefer to trust some tangible numbers that most people don't pay attention to but are the ones that make the difference and hide lots of essential information.

The reasons why I strongly believe that either France or Netherlands will be the Eurovision 2025 winner are:

a. We never had a winner in the 50/50 voting era ('16-'24) so far that managed to receive less than 4 sets of 12 points with the Juries (Italy '21 - 4) while we have had a country that won receiving 0 sets of 12s in the Public vote (Sweden '23), a country that got only 1 (Switzerland '24) and a country that was awarded 2 (Netherlands '19).

France and Netherlands are the only countries that fit that description. 

b. Again in the 50/50 voting era ('16-'24) there is always an entry that finished in Top-3 in the Jury vote that finishes in Top-3 in the Public vote as well. I fail to see Sweden climbing all the way to Jury Top-3, therefore Netherlands is my pick to tick that box as well.

c. With the exception of Ukraine in '22 that scored 192 points with the Juries, we never had a winner that managed to score less than 200 points with a constituency (Italy '21 - 206 J pts the lowest) and again I struggle to see Sweden hitting that mark with the Juries.

d. When a country is voted by a minimum of 33 countries in the Jury vote, it is voted by the same number of countries in the Public vote as well. Sweden does not fit that criterion either while Netherlands and France do. It is the same thing that happened last year with Switzerland and France that ranked 5th and 4th respectively but got voted by all countries and easily passed the 200 points benchmark.

France @13.5 and Netherlands @ 17 currently in the Exchange are my picks for the winner.

Tomorrow I will post my book with the mentioned tips for the Eurovision 2025 and my betting resolution and of course stay tuned for the exciting Talk About Things/ESC Prediction project. A panel of 16 Eurovision market analysts/tipsters/experts predicted the outcome of Eurovision 2025! There will be a special podcast episode and more in depth analysis in the coming days!

Photo: Tim Buiting