A Revolution happened indeed in Melfest '25 and KAJ will be the ones representing Sweden in Eurovision.
'Bara Bada Bastu' is the definition of a 'joke' entry tailored-made to have an appeal with all Eurovision demographics, being funny and slick enough to keep everyone happy and no-one offended.
I do consider it a lock Top-2 with the Public vote, but I have not decided yet if it is the type of entry that could reach or surpass the 300 points threshold or it will have a Norway '19, Serbia '22 result.
The main argument for my indecisiveness is that there many public vote magnets in its region (Finland, Estonia, even Norway) that would do not guarantee all the 12s and maybe some 10s there.
Additionally, I am not 100% certain that it will have the same appeal in some parts of Southern and Eastern Europe. It will get points there for sure but maybe not all will be top marks.
And finally, the most important reason of all. Sweden has branded themselves as a Jury oriented country and struggles traditionally with the Public. They have not received a single set of 12 Public vote points in the 20's despite having won and finished 4th in that span.
For all these reasons a 250-290 points score feels closer to reality than a 325+ points score.
The hit or miss point for Sweden will be their jury appeal, where they will need to score a minimum of 175 points to keep themselves in contention without hoping for an abnormal Televote score.
The staging and vocals are there and jurors should be able to acknowledge and award them for that. They are a powerhouse as well and know all the tricks to get the points they need. The song is not divisive or aggressive to force jurors to blank them but there is still some uncertainty whether Juries will underestimate its artistic merit and treat it as joke that cannot award.
I feel more comfortable estimating their Jury score in the 125-150 points region and I fear that this will not be enough to secure them the win.
They can still overperform with both constituencies but for the moment I prefer to take a more cautious approach.
I am 100% certain though that Sweden will finish in the Top-3 no matter what.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Sweden finishing Top-2 with the Public vote but coming a bit short with the Juries and finishing 3rd overall.
Televoting Potential: 9.5/10
Jury Potential: 7.5/10
Staging Potential: 9.5/10
Momentum: 7/10
My Opinion: 10/10
Total: 43.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
10% - 20%
Best case scenario:
Winner
Worst case scenario:
4th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 140-175
F: J: 100-175 - PV: 225-300 - Tot: 325-475
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Sweden winning Eurovision the Finnish way?...
You can hear my thoughts about Sweden in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
No comments:
Post a Comment