Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Poland

Gaia - Justyna Steczkowska

Poland's national final for Eurovision 2025 is another classic example of how the mistakes of last year's selection process can derail the next edition. 

I do believe that Poland had two better options than 'Gaia' (Lusterka, Hold the Light) but the 'cooking; of last year's selection forced the Polish broadcaster to opt for 100% Public vote result and Justyna was playing in home turf. 

I believe that her entry last year was better and this should have been the ideal come back in Eurovision for her after 30! years.

'Gaia' is an powerful ethnic-pop entry that highlights Justyna's vocal and dancing abilities. I find it a bit aggressive but it should be fine in a 100% Public vote Semi - Final. Poland's target group will be its diaspora and it remains to be seen if the diaspora will back her beloved artist and boost her to achieve a middle table result in the Final.

A Top-10 result in the Public vote is within reach (Blanca was 8th in '23) and I would not be surprised if Justyna received a 100+ points score. 

Poland is historically struggling with the Juries and I expect a similar result this year as well that could hurt Justyna's slim chance to finish in Top-10 overall. If they receive more than 30-35 points in Jury vote, things could get interesting when the Public vote points are revealed.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Overall, I think that Poland will secure the qualification and then, relying on diaspora, will secure a mid-table result (12th-19th).

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 29.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 60-90

F: J: 5-25 - PV: 60-120 - Tot: 65-145

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Poland be a contender for a Top-10 result? Will the Polish diaspora back Justyna?

You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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