Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Poland

Gaia - Justyna Steczkowska

Poland's national final for Eurovision 2025 is another classic example of how the mistakes of last year's selection process can derail the next edition. 

I do believe that Poland had two better options than 'Gaia' (Lusterka, Hold the Light) but the 'cooking; of last year's selection forced the Polish broadcaster to opt for 100% Public vote result and Justyna was playing in home turf. 

I believe that her entry last year was better and this should have been the ideal come back in Eurovision for her after 30! years.

'Gaia' is an powerful ethnic-pop entry that highlights Justyna's vocal and dancing abilities. I find it a bit aggressive but it should be fine in a 100% Public vote Semi - Final. Poland's target group will be its diaspora and it remains to be seen if the diaspora will back her beloved artist and boost her to achieve a middle table result in the Final.

A Top-10 result in the Public vote is within reach (Blanca was 8th in '23) and I would not be surprised if Justyna received a 100+ points score. 

Poland is historically struggling with the Juries and I expect a similar result this year as well that could hurt Justyna's slim chance to finish in Top-10 overall. If they receive more than 30-35 points in Jury vote, things could get interesting when the Public vote points are revealed.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Overall, I think that Poland will secure the qualification and then, relying on diaspora, will secure a mid-table result (12th-19th).

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 29.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 60-90

F: J: 5-25 - PV: 60-120 - Tot: 65-145

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Poland be a contender for a Top-10 result? Will the Polish diaspora back Justyna?

You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Poland

 

First Thoughts:

After months of speculations that Justyna would represent Poland, it was Luna in the end the one that was chosen with her song 'The Tower' and she will try to extend Poland's qualifying streak to three consecutive years.

Poland is still flying under the radar, most probably because fans were expecting Justyna, but it does have all the elements that could secure a respectable result in May.

Luna is very unique and able performer, the song is catchy enough and accessible to both Eastern and Western ears and Poland does have its diaspora to help as well.

The Semi - Final draw has been tough for Poland being sandwiched between Ukraine and Croatia but Televote has never been the problem for them, especially in a Semi - Final with many friends and allies.

It remains to be seen what could Poland do in the Final when they get there. In theory a Top-10 result with the Juries is probable and if diaspora backs 'The Tower' as well, I would not be surprised to see Poland reaching the Top-10.

A mid table result feels a safe option for the moment and we are waiting to see if and how the staging could boost the entry.

It reminds me of...

Czechia '22 (Q),

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-120

Final: Js: 50-125 - TV: 50-125 - Total: 100-250

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is a tough one for the moment as it has a wide range. My feeling says that is should be near the Top-10 but for the moment flies under the radar, so I will settle with the definition of mid table and say 13th-14th.

If in Top-10 with Juries though, anything could happen.

You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 03

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Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Poland

 

First Thoughts:

The guilty pleasure for 2023 is definitely Poland's 'Solo'.

Poland has the national final with the most upset victories and this year was not any different.

'Solo' is considered one of the lowest quality entries of all time and one of the main reasons that Semi - Final 2 will get a place in history for its poor results in the Final, however we should keep in mind a few things.

The song is a big hit in Poland since late 2022 and had enough support to send it to Eurovision. That means that the Polish diaspora could lift this one just enough to make it to the Final.

There Bottom-3/5 seems unavoidable, but qualifying is the realistic goal.

A month ago, I had this one written off as a non-qualifier but the facts that I mentioned above plus the very weak ensemble of this Semi-Final forced me to change my mind and now have it on my qualifiers list.

It reminds me of...

Moldova '21, Belarus '19, 

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 23/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final and avoid Bottom-3

Worst case scenario:

Fail to qualify

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

50%-60% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Poland making it to the Final thanks to the diaspora and then avoiding Bottom-3 thanks to the 25-35 diaspora points from certain countries. 

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 14. Poland...wants to wash the Jury failures to the River...

 Qualifying Record: 5/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 10/14

Current Country Streak: 3 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q