Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 14. Poland...wants to wash the Jury failures to the River...

 Qualifying Record: 5/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 10/14

Current Country Streak: 3 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q

Poland is the country that intrigues me the most every year when I update their stats.

There is not a country that has a bigger discrepancy between Juries and Televoting. 

Poland for every Jury point receives 2.66 Televoting points in the Semi-Finals and hold your breath, 8.61 in the Finals!!!

That makes 'River' a case study for this year to solve the mystery finally. Do Juries have a problem with Polish entries or diaspora makes the discrepancy look massive?

Poland has never made it to the Top-10 of the Juries in the 50/50 era, but I reckon this will change shortly.

A few months ago, Poland was trading as low as 6.00. The uninspired national final staging made the price drift, being currently at 50. The major concern was Ochman lack of connection with the camera. 

That is the reason the Polish rehearsal is one to watch out.

If staging is good, they could threaten Sweden for the win and get the best slot for the Final.

If it is a hit and miss, qualification will not be in jeopardy but the chances for a Top-5 finish in the Final will become very slim.

Will qualify because...

One of the two-three entries that stand out in this Semi-Final.

Jury and Televoting appeal.

Will not qualify because...

Juries prove that they have something personal with Poland and they rank them last. Even then, Poland could rely on Televoting to qualify.

Realistic Expectations...

1st-4th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Latvia '18 (NQ), Ukraine '16 (Q), Netherlands '14 (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

Great slot both with Juries and Televoting (10/14 - 11/14).

Televoting has four podium results (3-0-1) and Juries two (1-0-1).

The current second longest qualifying streak with four. 

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 9.6 (Js:13.4 - TV:6.9)

Points: 111.4 (Js:30.4 - TV: 81)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.38

What happens next...

Poland will qualify to the Final in flying colours. The point is if to finish as high as possible to get a great slot for the Final. 

Diaspora will be there to help, no matter if they draw first or second half and Juries are not that affected by the running order. 

This is one to watch during rehearsals to see if the staging will be improved from the national final. Ochman needs to connect with the camera to have a chance to break in Top-4/5. Otherwise, it is a safe Top-10 entry.

If we follow the trend of the Polish entries, Poland will finish 8th! (Look below)

Most probable outcome for the Final...

4th-8th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 15 (Js:24.5 - TV:8.8)

Points: 128.8(Js: 13.4 - TV: 115.4)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.11