Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 17. Sweden...wants to Hold (the Trophy) Closer...

 

Qualifying Record: 11/12

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 4/10 for #17

 10/14 for penultimate slot

Current Country Streak: 8 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Sweden is the big favourite in this Semi-Final. 

You can copy-paste the above sentence and use it every year and 8/10 times you will be right no matter what.

Cornelia Jakobs is the first woman representing Sweden since 2014 and the first Melfest winner at the post-Bjorkman era.

There is not much to say here as Sweden will be cruising to the Final. They need the win though to secure the best possible running order for the Final.

That will be the most interesting tell when the running order will be revealed. We already know Italy's slot, UK is straight to the Final as well, so no metrics for the producers and Ukraine being the X-factor, leaves some room for speculations about Sweden's performance in the Semi-Final.

Will qualify because...

Is the favourite to win the Semi-Final and contend for the trophy.

Will be Top-3 with bot constituencies.

Will not qualify because...

Only if we are all transferred in a parallel universe where Montenegro and North Macedonia are the Eurovision powerhouses.

Realistic Expectations...

1st-2nd

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

North Macedonia '19 (Q), Ireland '18 (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

#17: The second worst slot with just 4/10 Qs, 2/3 as pimp slot. Just one podium result (0-1-0).

Televoting has 7/10 Top-10 results with no podium, while Juries have 3/10 with a win (North Macedonia '19)!

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 3.2 (Js:2.5 - TV:5)

Points: 251.8 (Js:144.8 - TV:107)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.35

What happens next...

The running order will be crucial for Sweden to compete and that means to win the Semi-Final. 

They will need a second half slot. Sweden's struggle with Televoting hurts their chances and there many songs that could score better there. Currently I have Sweden to finish fifth.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

3rd-7th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 5.7 (Js:5.1 - TV:9)

Points: 335.6 (Js:204.9 - TV:130.7)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.57