Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 11. North Macedonia...is doing circles trying to qualify

 

Qualifying Record: 6/17

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q

Last year we had North Macedonia performing before Ireland, this year the table has turned, and it performs afterwards.

'Circles' is a decent entry, could tick with the Juries and being in a weak Semi-Final still stands a chance to qualify, a long one though.

There are some friends in the Semi-Final that could secure them a decent number of points and then is a matter of luck. 

The Juries might award some low points that could be enough to save it. 

I still have it on my non qualifying list but, there is some value in the qualifying odds (currently @5.00).

Will qualify because...

Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, Malta could guarantee a good amount of points to boost its score and make qualification happen.

Will not qualify because...

Bad running order.

North Macedonia's bad track record in staging.

Realistic Expectations...

10th-13th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Georgia '19 (NQ), North Macedonia '18 (NQ), Poland '17 (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

The worst slot of the second half with 6/14. The ranking of the six qualifications: 8, 9, 8, 8, 9, 10...

#2 and #11 are the only slots without a podium finish.

Juries tend to perform better with 8/14 Top-10 and Televoting has only 5/14.

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 12.4 (Js:11.7 - TV:12.6)

Points: 86.4 (Js:51.4 - TV:35)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.47

What happens next...

North Macedonia most probably will miss the Final once more. In case though that they qualify, they might get some points from neighbours to avoid a Bottom-3 result.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

65% NQ, 21st-25th if in Final