Qualifying Record: 2/11
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/6
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 10/14
Current Country Streak: 4 NQ
Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ
Montenegro is back after missing a year and hopes to improve its qualifying record.
The odds are against them, being sandwiched between two jury baits like Poland and Belgium and with Sweden following...
EBU tried to help giving them a late slot but that does not seem enough.
They have Serbia and North Macedonia in the Semi-Final to guarantee some points, but I struggle to find the 100+ points that they will need to qualify.
Montenegro is not completely written off, but they are looking for a small miracle.
If odds for qualification reach double digits, there will be some value for a fun bet.
They will receive 48pts from Serbia and North Macedonia and collect the 1-3 pts here and there with both constituencies.
Will not qualify because...
With Belgium, Sweden and Czechia following, and Poland proceeding, Montenegro is the most suitable non-qualifier.
Realistic Expectations...
12th-15th
Montenegro '16 (NQ), Romania '15 (Q), Montenegro '14 (Q)
Interesting Facts about the Running Order:
The second-best slot (10/14 Qs), four podium results (1-3-0).
Impressive results for both constituencies (Juries 2-0-1, Televoting 3-1-0)
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)
Ranking: 13.3 (Js:11.8 - TV:12.8)
Points: 70.7 (Js:39.7 - TV:31)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.28
What happens next...
Montenegro most probably will miss the Final once more. In case they do qualify though will be a perfect candidate for a Bottom-3 result. Serbia will get the higher points leaving a few points here and there from the other ex-Yugoslav countries.
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)
Ranking: 18.5 (Js:15.5 - TV:18)
Points: 79.5 (Js:46 - TV:33.5)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.37
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