Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 2 - 1. Finland...misses Jezebel

 

Qualifying Record: 8/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q

Finland takes the 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' approach and sends another rock entry.

This is what is working better for them, and no one can blame them.

Will 'Jezebel' have the impact that the Dark Side had last year?

It lacks the energy and the impact that it had especially with the Televoters but looks a bit safer with Juries. 

Opening the Semi-Final is a good sign and participating in the weakest Semi-Final of the last ten years makes things easier.

Qualification and a good finish are the only possible outcomes. Remains to be seen if Finland will have a momentum like last year and finish in Top-10

 Will qualify because...

It has enough to score well with both constituencies. 

It's good enough to crack Top-3.

Will not qualify because...

People will be left in owe after what they will have seen by Israel and Serbia! Finland is now a distant memory. Add to that a bit of Georgia, San Marino, Australia just in the first half and Finland could be forgettable, not always for the right reasons.

 Realistic Expectations...

3rd-6th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Armenia '19 (NQ)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

The highest place for Televoting is third (two times).

The only slot from #1-5 that has produced a winner (Norway '18 - SF2)

The second-best slot for Juries after #16!

Finland performed in #1 back in 2016 and failed to qualify (15th)

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 11.1 (Js:11.3 - TV:9.6 )

Points: 105.7 (Js:46 - TV:59.7 )

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.77

What happens next...

Qualifying to the Final is the bare minimum for Finland. There is some potential to reach Top-10 but that would be the absolute ceiling. 

Running order and the Semi-Final placing will play as always, a big part to Finland's success. 

Most probable outcome for the Final...

10th-18th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 13.3 (Js:14 - TV:12.7)

Points: 168.7 (Js:73.3 - TV:95.4)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.77