Call it perfect timing, I call it Divine!

 

Eurovision 2026 Grand Final: The Market Is Finally Cracking

Eurovision 2026 has saved all the drama for the very end.

A season that has been defined by Finland sitting at the top of the betting market since late January suddenly feels far more unstable than the odds are implying. Finland still lead the market, but momentum has shifted dramatically since Thursday night and especially after Friday’s jury rehearsal, with Australia and Bulgaria timing their surge perfectly.

And for the first time in months, this Contest genuinely feels open.

I do think we are heading towards an extremely close result tonight. Despite what the outright odds suggest, there are realistically four countries with a genuine winning path and the margin between victory and heartbreak could be razor-thin.

Australia Have Peaked At Exactly The Right Time

Australia have gained the momentum and Delta’s performance is simply operating on another level.

“Eclipse” feels like the complete package now. The vocals are flawless, the staging has scale without becoming chaotic and, most importantly, she looks like a winner on camera. Eurovision juries love credibility and star quality, and Australia suddenly have both in abundance.

I expect Australia to win the jury vote.

The key question is not whether they win it, but by how much.

If they land somewhere in the 250-point range with juries, the televote probably settles around 140-160 and suddenly things become dangerous. But if the juries really go all in and push them closer to 275 points, then we are talking about a potential 180-200 televote score as well.

There is almost always one entry every year that creates an unusual level of agreement between juries and televoters. This year, Australia feel like that entry.

And once that happens, they become the country everyone else has to chase.

Finland’s Winning Path Suddenly Looks Much Narrower

Finland are still leading the market and their pre-show metrics have been solid throughout the season, but their post-Semi dynamics simply do not scream “convincing Eurovision winner”.

There is also a risk that the perceived EBU favouritism ends up creating resistance among casual viewers rather than support.

I am still not fully convinced this is an entry that the wider Saturday-night audience will embrace heavily in the televote. That has been my concern for weeks and nothing during the live shows has really changed that feeling.

The biggest issue for Finland tonight is simple:

How close can they stay to Australia after the jury vote?

Because I always believed Finland’s route to victory relied on either winning the juries outright or staying extremely close to the top. Australia may have blocked that path entirely.

If Finland are sitting somewhere around 200-225 jury points, they could easily find themselves already 30-50 points behind Australia before televoting even begins.

And that is where the uphill battle starts.

Can Finland realistically finish 50+ points ahead of Australia in the televote while:

• Greece
• Israel
• Moldova
• Bulgaria
• Italy

are all competing for similar televote territory?

The Nordic and Baltic support will absolutely be there for Finland. But I am far less convinced about their access to the Eastern televote where diaspora and regional voting patterns could heavily fragment the scoreboard.

Right now, Finland feel more like a 5th-7th place televote entry than a runaway winner.

And that may simply not be enough.

Greece Remain Massively Underrated

Greece have had a fascinating week in the betting markets.

The odds halved on Monday, drifted again after the Semi-Final and have since pushed back out into the middle-to-high teens. But I still think the market is underestimating them because it has failed to properly account for one of the biggest structural changes in this year’s Contest:

The younger jurors.

The EBU’s attempt to bring jury and televote results closer together could significantly benefit entries with stronger emotional accessibility and broader modern appeal.

That matters enormously for Greece.

I still believe Greece will perform substantially better with juries than the market expects and I would not be surprised at all if they either win the televote outright or finish extremely close to the top.

Yes, the Balkan and Eastern bloc entries may dilute each other somewhat in the public vote. But Greece should still score heavily enough across multiple regions to remain fully competitive if the winning threshold lands somewhere around 430-450 points.

Maybe it is overthinking.
Maybe it is bias.

But Greece feel like a locked Top-3 result to me and if an opening appears tonight, they are absolutely capable of taking it.

If Greece hit 180+ jury points, then the game truly begins.

Bulgaria Have Become The Chaos Candidate

Bulgaria are the dark horse that exploded into contention on Wednesday and completely changed the complexion of this Final.

The staging elevated the entry several levels.
Dara has undeniable charisma.
The song works both East and West.
And crucially, it feels accessible to both juries and televoters.

That combination is rare.

Add an extremely favourable running order position and suddenly Bulgaria become the entry nobody wants to ignore anymore.

The market certainly noticed.

Seeing Bulgaria collapse from triple-digit odds earlier in the week into serious contention has been one of the defining betting stories of Eurovision 2026.

And honestly? I am glad I jumped on the bandwagon before the explosion happened.

One additional point worth noting: the voting reveal order strongly suggests that Bulgaria, Greece or potentially both could receive a late scoreboard push from countries like:

• Serbia
• Moldova
• Croatia
• Romania

That could create exactly the kind of dramatic momentum swing that changes perception during the live voting itself.

My Final Eurovision 2026 Predictions

1. Australia

Jury: 250-275
Televote: 180-200
Total: 430-475

Australia have the momentum, the jury appeal and the performance that feels biggest on television. If they win the juries clearly enough, the televote should naturally follow.

The last Eurovision winner to take fewer than 200 televote points was Austria last year in a far weaker field. Australia look much stronger than that profile.

2. Greece

Jury: 180-200
Televote: 225-250
Total: 405-450

If Greece get the jury respect I believe they will receive, then they become a genuine contender because the televote should already be there.

They are far more credible with juries than the market assumes.

3. Bulgaria

Jury: 180-200
Televote: 180-200
Total: 360-400

Could this be the shock winner?

A week ago Bulgaria were trading at absurd prices. Now they suddenly look capable of exploding across both voting groups. If the jury score lands near 200 points, everyone should start paying attention very quickly.

4. Finland

Jury: 190-210
Televote: 160-180
Total: 350-390

For most of the season, Finland always felt like one of two extremes:

• either a 500+ point landslide winner,
• or an entry finishing around 4th with 375 points.

I am leaning much more towards the second scenario now.

They can still absolutely win.
But there are now too many uncertainties to justify the current market position.

The Rest Of My Top-10

5. Israel

Jury: 50-60
Televote: 220-240
Total: 270-295

A huge televote score is coming, but I struggle to see enough jury support to truly contend unless they unexpectedly cross the 125-point jury mark.

6. Romania

Jury: 65-80
Televote: 130-145
Total: 195-225

Could comfortably finish Top-10.
Could also finish 11th.
One of the harder entries to price correctly.

7. Italy

Jury: 70-90
Televote: 120-135
Total: 190-225

Classic Italy. Strong enough to remain relevant everywhere without necessarily dominating anywhere.

8. Ukraine

Jury: 60-75
Televote: 130-145
Total: 190-220

Another reliable Ukrainian Top-10 result feels likely, although the Eastern televote congestion could suppress the ceiling slightly.

9. Moldova

Jury: 30-45
Televote: 150-170
Total: 180-215

One of my favourite positions of the season. I loved the Top-10 value from early April and still think it lands comfortably.

10. France

Jury: 125-140
Televote: 35-50
Total: 160-190

A disappointing rehearsal week overall. Monroe is excellent, but the staging once again feels like France never fully understood how to maximise the entry’s potential.

Top-10 is no longer guaranteed.

11. Denmark

Jury: 100-120
Televote: 35-50
Total: 135-170

Opposing Denmark for a Top-5 result has been one of my core positions since before Eurovision week started and I still believe the market overrated their ceiling throughout the season.

The jury support should still be respectable because of the professionalism and overall package quality, but I struggle to see where the televote explosion comes from in such a competitive Final.

The early Top-10 lays may end up being the cherry on top if the scoreboard becomes crowded around the middle positions.

12. Albania

Jury: 75-90
Televote: 60-75
Total: 135-165

Albania absolutely have a path towards the Top-10 if juries connect with the authenticity and emotional intensity of the performance.

The issue is that they are competing in a very congested area of the scoreboard where several Eastern and Balkan entries could end up cannibalising each other’s support.

Still, this feels like one of Albania’s strongest overall Eurovision packages in years and a Top-15 finish should be comfortably achievable.

13. Malta

Jury: 90-110
Televote: 10-20
Total: 100-130

Malta will always have a special place in my heart for the 2026 season — not because of the entry itself, but because of the market movement around it.

Their suspicious outright market support earlier in the season allowed me to offset a large part of my Finland exposure at very favourable prices. For that alone, I owe them my gratitude.

As for the result itself, this has “jury appreciation but televote rejection” written all over it.

14. Croatia

Jury: 45-60
Televote: 30-45
Total: 75-105

Croatia already overperformed expectations in the Semi-Final and simply reaching the Final feels like a success story in itself.

The song should collect enough regional support and scattered televote points to avoid disaster territory, but the overall ceiling feels limited in a packed Grand Final.

A lower mid-table result looks like the most realistic outcome.

15. Poland

Jury: 45-60
Televote: 30-40
Total: 75-100

Poland never truly generated momentum during Eurovision week and the staging did not elevate the entry enough to create serious upward movement.

There should still be enough diaspora and regional televote support to remain competitive around the middle of the scoreboard, but this lacks the broader crossover appeal needed for a higher finish.

16. Sweden

Jury: 50-65
Televote: 15-25
Total: 65-90

My biggest anti-market position of the season.

Sweden entered Eurovision week heavily overrated in my opinion and I have been aggressive both in the Top-10 and Top-15 lay markets. The overall package feels far too cold and anonymous to generate meaningful televote traction and I am not convinced the juries will rescue it enough either.

If Sweden miss the Top-10 entirely, it would not shock me whatsoever.

17. Czechia

Jury: 60-75
Televote: 0-10
Total: 60-85

Czechia feels like one of those entries that juries may reward for effort, structure and musical credibility while the public simply ignores it completely.

The televote ceiling looks extremely low and there is a genuine risk of single-digit public points tonight.

Without jury support, this could collapse very quickly.

18. Cyprus

Jury: 20-30
Televote: 35-45
Total: 55-75

Cyprus should benefit from enough regional and neighbour support to avoid the very bottom of the scoreboard, but there is very little evidence suggesting broader appeal outside that lane.

The staging helped somewhat, though not enough to transform the overall trajectory of the entry.

19. Serbia

Jury: 20-35
Televote: 20-30
Total: 40-65

Serbia may pick up scattered televote support across the Balkans, but this feels like another entry trapped in the congestion of similar regional voting patterns.

The jury potential also appears fairly limited, making it difficult to identify a realistic route towards a stronger result.

20. Lithuania

Jury: 10-20
Televote: 5-15
Total: 15-35

Lithuania never managed to create any real traction throughout Eurovision week and now look vulnerable to being swallowed by the scoreboard entirely.

Even the usual regional support may not be enough in such a competitive field.

21. Norway

Jury: 5-15
Televote: 10-20
Total: 15-35

Norway have felt disconnected from the Contest almost from the beginning of rehearsals.

There may still be enough televote goodwill to avoid absolute last place territory, but this looks like an entry that both voting groups simply failed to engage with emotionally.

22. Germany

Jury: 5-15
Televote: 0-10
Total: 5-25

Germany’s biggest issue is not necessarily that the entry is bad — it is that nothing about it feels memorable enough to survive in a Final this crowded.

When casual viewers are overwhelmed with stronger visual and emotional packages, entries like this tend to disappear very quickly.

23. United Kingdom

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-10
Total: 0-20

Another painful year for the UK appears to be on the horizon.

The performance lacks identity, the staging feels disconnected from the song and there is no obvious voting constituency ready to rescue it.

Avoiding the bottom three may already count as success.

24. Austria

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-15

Austria benefited enormously from the specific dynamics of last year’s Contest, but 2026 feels completely different.

This entry has struggled to generate any momentum whatsoever and now looks like one of the clearest candidates for a complete scoreboard collapse.

25. Belgium

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-15

Belgium have quietly become one of my favourite longshot positions for last place.

The performance never connected during rehearsals, the staging feels lifeless and there is virtually no evidence of either jury or televote support emerging.

Betting Time

Disagreeing with the market for a second consecutive year allowed me to structure things very differently and avoid becoming overexposed to a Finland victory scenario.

My key hedge positions were:

• Denmark Top-5 lay
• Sweden Top-10 lay

And the Sweden lay alone may already be enough to protect the outright market completely.

Outside the winner market, Moldova Top-10 and Albania Top-15 were probably my favourite early-week value positions.

But the real story has been Bulgaria.

Getting involved before the market correction with:

• Top-10
• Top-5
• Top-4
• Top-3

positions created some enormous upside and Top-10 alone now covers the overall Bulgarian exposure.

As for tonight’s outright positions:

• Australia to Win — 400 units @4.1
• Greece to Win — 50 units @17.5
• Bulgaria to Win — 50 units @16.5
• Bulgaria Top-4 — 300 units @3.4

If any of Australia, Greece or Bulgaria win tonight, this will comfortably become my most profitable Eurovision ever.

And honestly, after a season this chaotic, dramatic and unpredictable, that would feel very fitting.

Good luck with your bets tonight — and get ready for one of the most exciting Eurovision voting sequences we have had in years.

Bring It!

 

 The judgement day has finally arrived and tonight the big guns will have to put every card on the table. With Semi-Final 1 shaping up to be comfortably the weakest Semi of the last decade, the spotlight shifts almost entirely towards one question: who leaves tonight with the momentum — Greece or Finland?

For the first time in months, Finland’s grip at the top of the market looks slightly vulnerable.

Yesterday belonged to Greece.

The Greek delegation finally unveiled the full staging concept and the reaction across the arena, fandom and betting markets was immediate. Akylas and Fokas have delivered a performance that feels less like a Eurovision entry and more like a three-minute cinematic experience, divided into chapters and packed with visual moments.

The market reacted aggressively. Greece opened yesterday around 7.00 to win Eurovision, crashed into the 3.65 range during the evening and eventually stabilised around 4.00-4.20.

That kind of move is never accidental.

The key question now is whether Greece can fully steal the narrative tonight after the Semi-Final result. Momentum matters enormously in Eurovision betting and this feels like the first genuine attack on Finland’s long-standing position at the top.

Finland, to their credit, remain extremely solid. The performance works, the audience is fully engaged and they still possess the cleanest televote package in the competition. However, for the first time in three months, we have finally seen the market blink.

Finland drifted from the 2.10-2.20 region into 2.50-2.60 after rehearsals, a sign that traders are starting to question whether this is still a runaway favourite or simply the market leader in a very open year.

Thursday could complicate matters even further if France and Australia land properly.

The other major winner from yesterday was Moldova. The fandom has finally jumped on a train that sharp bettors boarded weeks ago. Moldova’s Top-10 odds have collapsed from the 3.25-3.50 range into 1.80 and that move feels entirely justified.

This has comfortably been my strongest pre-rehearsal position of the season.

The televote ceiling is massive and in a weak Semi-Final they suddenly have a realistic path towards a Top-3 finish tonight.

There will be plenty of time after the show to dissect the winners, losers and market overreactions, but for now it is time for the traditional Semi-Final 1 projection.

1. Greece

Jury: 110-125
Televote: 130-145
Total: 240-270

Akylas delivers vocally, Fokas once again proves why he remains one of Eurovision’s elite staging minds and Greece suddenly feels like the entry everyone will be talking about after tonight.

This is not simply “artsy” Eurovision. It is accessible, emotional and visually memorable while still offering enough sophistication for juries to reward it heavily.

The final minute in particular feels tailor-made for jury appeal.

The Semi draw is also favourable, with enough allies to support both voting components. Greece to win Semi-Final 1 around 4.10 looks like clear betting value.

2. Finland

Jury: 120-130
Televote: 100-110
Total: 220-240

No real concerns for Finland.

The performance lands exactly as expected and the crowd response remains huge. However, yesterday’s audience poll — where they surprisingly finished behind Moldova among a heavily western crowd — is at least worth monitoring.

Tonight’s scoreboard will tell us far more.

The issue from a betting perspective is purely price-related. Finland winning the Semi around 1.91 offers very little value considering the growing competition around them.

3. Moldova

Jury: 75-85
Televote: 120-130
Total: 195-215

Can Moldova overtake Israel and sneak into the Top-3?

I believe they can.

Israel traditionally overperforms in western televoting markets but their eastern support historically has not been nearly as dominant, opening the door for Moldova to capitalise in this specific Semi.

Moldova now looks extremely well positioned for a Top-10 finish in the Final and potentially even a Top-5 televote result overall.

Liquidity remains poor in the speciality markets, but anything above 2.50-2.75 for Moldova Top-3 tonight still looks playable.

4. Israel

Jury: 55-65
Televote: 105-115
Total: 160-180

The growing attempts to control or suppress Israel’s televote narrative feel mistimed and potentially counterproductive.

If anything, making Israel the central talking point only increases public mobilisation.

The more interesting question tonight concerns the juries. In a Semi-Final environment where qualification is relatively safe, jurors may feel freer to score this entry naturally without broader strategic considerations.

The Semi mix is not especially friendly though, which could leave Israel vulnerable to a lower-than-expected placement.

5. Croatia

Jury: 50-65
Televote: 80-100
Total: 130-165

This was an entry I was looking to oppose ever since Dora, but the delegation has improved steadily throughout the season.

The girls are performing better with every rehearsal and the staging adds the extra impact the package needed.

Qualification looks comfortable and the bigger question now is whether Croatia can build enough late momentum to threaten the Final Top-10.

6. Sweden

Jury: 70-80
Televote: 45-55
Total: 115-135

Sweden are fortunate to be competing in this particular Semi-Final because a stronger draw could have created genuine danger.

This entry feels heavily “Melodifestivalen-coded” — something that works domestically but loses impact on the Eurovision stage.

Felicia’s personal story resonates in Sweden, but internationally the styling choices, mask concept and dark staging create unnecessary barriers for viewers and juries alike.

The market has finally started adjusting. A Top-10 finish in the Final now feels increasingly unrealistic, especially with Finland and Denmark offering much stronger overall packages.

My average lay at 1.64 remains one of my best positions of the year. The market now trades around 2.08.

7. Poland

Jury: 65-75
Televote: 40-50
Total: 105-125

Potentially the biggest grower of the Semi.

My main concern pre-rehearsals was Poland’s historic jury weakness, particularly with a jury-oriented entry. However, the staging has elevated the package considerably and qualification now feels more likely than not.

Still not fully safe — but definitely moving towards qualification territory.

8. Serbia

Jury: 35-45
Televote: 50-60
Total: 85-105

We have officially entered the danger zone.

Serbia traditionally thrives in borderline qualification scenarios and there are enough regional connections here — particularly Croatia and Montenegro — to provide a foundation in the televote.

At the same time, this absolutely could miss out.

There may be slight value opposing Serbia, but this is not a market I am eager to attack.

9. Estonia

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 85-105

Another genuine coinflip.

The running order helps and credibility matters enormously in the chaotic second half of this Semi. Estonia at least feels professional and coherent, which could prove decisive.

Lithuania, Finland and Sweden also provide useful voting connections.

I backed Estonia pre-rehearsals above 2.50 and the market now trades around 3.20. The more interesting angle might actually be Top Baltic Entry at 6.00-7.00, which still retains value even if qualification is missed.

10. San Marino

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 85-105

Every second year I find myself chasing a San Marino qualification ticket. Previous attempts came in 2022 and 2024.

Could this finally be the year?

Pre-rehearsals I had San Marino dead last in my rankings, but the staging has transformed the entry entirely. Boy George’s involvement feels deliberately designed to generate commentator buzz and casual audience attention.

If San Marino can activate their traditional “jury dark arts” through countries like Greece, Montenegro and Italy, qualification around 4.70 is worth the gamble.

A bet I am always happy to lose.

11. Portugal

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 15-25
Total: 60-80

The return of juries to the Semi-Finals theoretically keeps Portugal alive, but I still struggle to construct a realistic qualification path.

This is an entry almost entirely dependent on jury support and even there, I am not convinced the ceiling is high enough. To qualify comfortably, Portugal probably needs a Top-5 or Top-6 jury result and I simply do not see enough standout moments for that to happen.

The televote outlook is weak, the running order does not help and the overall pace of the Semi could leave this entry completely exposed.

I would not be shocked if Portugal sneaks through, but from a betting perspective I cannot find any value in the current qualification price.

12. Lithuania

Jury: 25-35
Televote: 30-40
Total: 55-75

This is where the maths start becoming very uncomfortable.

Lithuania is traditionally a weak jury nation, lacks meaningful voting allies in this Semi outside Estonia and Poland and does not benefit from any significant diaspora presence tonight.

Then there is the performance itself.

Vocally, the jury rehearsal was reportedly rough and this is not the type of entry that can survive weak vocals in front of jurors. Add the alien-inspired styling and inaccessible presentation and suddenly the qualification price looks completely disconnected from reality.

Trading around 1.50 to qualify makes absolutely no sense to me.

Lithuania not to qualify at 3.00 is, in my opinion, the standout value bet of Semi-Final 1.

13. Montenegro

Jury: 20-30
Televote: 35-45
Total: 55-75

Can neighbours and hardcore fans drag Montenegro across the line?

Possibly — but I remain highly sceptical.

The delegation has staged this entry in an oddly aggressive way, trying so hard to create impact that they may have alienated both jurors and casual viewers in the process.

This feels like a classic fandom bubble entry. Eurovision fans may appreciate the chaos and intensity, but regular viewers often react very differently.

Tonight will be a fascinating test of how influential the fanbase really is in Semi-Final voting.

I have included Montenegro in several non-qualification combo bets alongside Belgium and Georgia.

14. Belgium

Jury: 30-45
Televote: 15-25
Total: 45-70

At this stage there is very little left to analyse.

Belgium simply never recovered from the rehearsal week and the entry now feels completely devoid of momentum. Neither the staging nor the live performance elevated the package and in a televote-heavy environment this becomes extremely dangerous.

The juries may throw a few respectable scores their way, but the televote ceiling looks alarmingly low.

There is still some value including Belgium in non-qualification combinations and that remains the only angle I would consider betting-wise.

15. Georgia

Jury: 10-25
Televote: 15-25
Total: 25-50

Georgia once again feels like a delegation that misunderstood the assignment entirely.

Almost every creative decision surrounding this entry has worked against its qualification chances. The staging lacks identity, the performance feels disconnected and there is no clear televote hook for casual viewers to latch onto.

In a stronger Semi this would have been completely dead on arrival and even in this weaker lineup it still looks comfortably headed for another non-qualification.

At this point, avoiding last place might be the more realistic objective.

Betting Time

If I was entering the market fresh today, these would be the three positions I would want in my book.

Greece to win SF1 — 25 units @ 4.10
San Marino to qualify — 25 units @ 4.70
Lithuania not to qualify — 50 units @ 3.00

As always, I will follow the traditional format of 100 units per Semi and 800 units reserved for the Final.

Good luck with your bets tonight and keep the conversation going on social media.

 

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Finland

 

Ich Komme - Erika Vikman

Finland once again has treated us with a national final of great quality and high standards!

Erika won by a landslide, as expected when the breakdown of the voting is 70% PV and 30% Juries. 

'Ich Komme' is a continuation of Finland's quest to win Eurovision through the Public Vote scoreboard. The staging of the UMK was stunning with three minutes full of sexual tension and climax.

Erika is a very competent and full of charisma artist and lifts the song with her personality and stage show. I reckon that this is Eurovision ready and could do really well in Basel. Knowing already half of the songs and having listened to a few more countries that have not decided yet, Finland is the country that has the most PV potential. This is a great starting point for them and could boost their chances for a great result in May. 

If the goal is to finish in Top-5, Finland has a chance to be in the mix. My biggest concern is their jury appeal. 'Cha cha cha' received 150 jury points mostly because it was considered a favourite and some jurors did not want to shut down Kaarija's path to victory.

I am not going to state that 'Ich komme' is 'Cha cha cha 2.0' but it does not carry the same weight nevertheless. The staging is full of sexual references that will not go well with the majority of the jurors and I struggle to see a path for a three digit score with them. And this is the reason that any discussion about Finland winning Eurovision is more of wishful thinking than a realistic scenario.

Last year I mentioned in my posts and in the podcast that having this type of entries in the line-up will make jurors more open and receptive, awarding the artistry and show that the televote magnets offer and render these entries more credible. Croatia '24 finished 3rd scoring 200+ points with them and Ireland finished 6th over the jury friendly entries from Portugal and Sweden.

However, the jury-oriented entries managed to get a wider support from the public vote, that helped widen the gap between the jury and public vote favourites. France and Switzerland finished 4th and 5th in the Public Vote respectively, both scoring 220+ points and both received points from all countries! And this is where Finland's path to be a Public Vote Top-3 gets tricky. 

Add to that the X-factor of Israel's public vote score and Finland could end up finishing anywhere between 6th - 10th which is where I think it will end up in the end. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland finishing 2nd in the Semi - Final, getting a decent running order for the Final and finishing 7th with a J: 50-80 pts - PV: 150-200 split. 

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

Right-hand side result in the Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 160-200

F: J: 50-80 - PV: 150-200 - Tot: 200-280

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Finland has enough to win Eurovision?

You can hear my thoughts about Finland in the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Spotify

Apple Podcasts

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Finland

 

First Thoughts:

'If it aint broke don't fix it' is Finland's moto for Eurovision in the '20s and Windows95man is here to continue Kaarija's legacy!

Juries will hate this one with all their heart and it remains to find out if there is room for one more fun entry to be up there in the Televote Top-10.

The competition is rough and Finland in my eyes could be a decisive factor in crowning the Televote and Eurovision winner depending on the amount of Televote points that will be able to get in the Nordic/Baltic region and the Western Europe. 

I do think it will be somewhere between the 60-100 threshold that will not be enough to secure a Top-10 or even a Top-15 result in the Final.

It could actually do a lot worse if the region gets behind Netherlands or Norway and Finland is left with the crumbs.

I do like Finland on a personal level and I do think that there will a substantial number of viewers that will find this entry funny/hilarious/brilliant and it does have a call for action however I am not sure how many viewers will actually vote this one instead of the stronger packages.

I will not be surprised if this one though finishes in Top-3 in the Semi - Final.

It reminds me of...

 Romania '13(Q) - Austria '03

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 33.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.001%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 100-140

Final: Js: 5-15 - TV: 50 -175 - Total: 55-190

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland will sail in the Final and there is a matter of circumstances and luck. It needs a second half draw and to be far away from Netherlands, Croatia to stand a chance to crack Top-10 or could very well struggle if in first half.

I do think it will land somewhere between 16th-20th for the moment.

You can hear some more thoughts about Finland in Episode 2 of 'Talk About Things' 

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Soundcloud

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Finland

 

First Thoughts:

The big favourite to win Semi - Final 1 and the runner up in odds, chasing Sweden since late February. 

Finland is considered a contender just for the second time in their whole Eurovision history.

The first time they won (2006) and that would be the outcome this year as well, if the 100% Televoting rule was still in place.

'Cha Cha Cha' grabs your attention from the very first second and it is a roller coaster of energy and pure fun. The adrenaline is all over the place and somehow Finnish language feels like the perfect fit. The change of rhythm and the fun kicks in in the second half slowly taking down your heart beats.

I cannot see how Finland could end up with less than 275 Televoting points - my projection is in the 300-350 area - but at the same time, I struggle to find a path where they can end up with more than 125-150 Jury points and this is the biggest obstacle for them to win.

The recent performance of similar entries with Juries is not very promising either.

Serbia last year finished 11th, Ukraine in '21 finished 9th and Finland in '21 as well finished 11th. Back in 2019, Iceland ranked 15th and Norway 18th while Portugal failed to qualify.

The change in EBU's guidelines for the jurors might give it an extra boost but I do not think that it will be enough.

This is the main reason I find Finland's odds way too short, with a fair price being somewhere between 12 and 15.

If, and that is a very big if, manage to be over the 150 Jury points threshold when the Jury vote is over, then and only then we might have a new favourite.

It reminds me of...

Iceland '19, Portugal '19

Televoting Potential: 10/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 9/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 44/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

6.5% - 8%

Best case scenario:

Win

Worst case scenario:

5th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

Winner of the Semi-Final is the answer

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland coming short with the Juries and finishing 2nd-4th in the end, winning Televoting though.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 2 - 1. Finland...misses Jezebel

 

Qualifying Record: 8/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q