Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Finland

 

First Thoughts:

The big favourite to win Semi - Final 1 and the runner up in odds, chasing Sweden since late February. 

Finland is considered a contender just for the second time in their whole Eurovision history.

The first time they won (2006) and that would be the outcome this year as well, if the 100% Televoting rule was still in place.

'Cha Cha Cha' grabs your attention from the very first second and it is a roller coaster of energy and pure fun. The adrenaline is all over the place and somehow Finnish language feels like the perfect fit. The change of rhythm and the fun kicks in in the second half slowly taking down your heart beats.

I cannot see how Finland could end up with less than 275 Televoting points - my projection is in the 300-350 area - but at the same time, I struggle to find a path where they can end up with more than 125-150 Jury points and this is the biggest obstacle for them to win.

The recent performance of similar entries with Juries is not very promising either.

Serbia last year finished 11th, Ukraine in '21 finished 9th and Finland in '21 as well finished 11th. Back in 2019, Iceland ranked 15th and Norway 18th while Portugal failed to qualify.

The change in EBU's guidelines for the jurors might give it an extra boost but I do not think that it will be enough.

This is the main reason I find Finland's odds way too short, with a fair price being somewhere between 12 and 15.

If, and that is a very big if, manage to be over the 150 Jury points threshold when the Jury vote is over, then and only then we might have a new favourite.

It reminds me of...

Iceland '19, Portugal '19

Televoting Potential: 10/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 9/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 44/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

6.5% - 8%

Best case scenario:

Win

Worst case scenario:

5th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

Winner of the Semi-Final is the answer

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland coming short with the Juries and finishing 2nd-4th in the end, winning Televoting though.