What's another year? Rehearsals will begin in a few days, and it is time for the Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings.
Last year I had 9/10 correct qualifiers for both Semi-Finals in my pre-rehearsals that turned to 8/10 and 7/10 when the time for the actual prediction came so you better bookmark these posts.
Semi - Final 1 is the shortest one since 2014 with just 15 participants and at the same time one of the fullest in terms of quality.
Three of the Top-4 favourites are performing here and if we believe the current odds, 4 or 5 entries will make it to the Top-10, with the other 4 coming from the direct qualifiers and 1 or 2 from Semi - Final 2.
There is a big chance that Finland will win the Semi-Final because of the 100% Televoting scoring system and then have a reverse in Grand Final with Sweden winning the Contest.
It has happened in the past, so we need to be open-minded. Clicking on each country's name, you will be able to read my first thoughts for each one.
So here we go...
1. Finland
What I think it will happen: Performing in the Pimp Slot will give a massive boost to Finland that is also the big favourite to win Televoting in the Final. The last Pimp Slot entry that won Televoting in a Semi - Final was 'Fuego' back in 2018 when 'Toy' finished just 4th! with the televoters but managed to win the contest. Maybe that is an omen for Sweden.
Finland's win is currently @1.59 which I find very short, but this is the hot favourite.
I would be shocked if: Finland does not finish in Top-2.
2. Sweden
What I think it will happen: Loreen is the one to beat and she will set the tone from the Semi - Final. For those thinking that Sweden just waits for Saturday 13th May to be coronated as Eurovision winner, the Semi - Final win @ 3.60 is the only Swedish odd this year that has an actual value. Cannot see a way Sweden will fail to be in the Top-2. If that happens - we will find out after the Grand Final - then winning the contest will be out of question.
I would be shocked if: Sweden is out of the Top-2.
3. Israel
What I think it will happen: One of the biggest X-factors so far for the year. The one though with the most potential. Noa Kirel has star quality and Israel does know how to stage a song. Winning the Semi - Final @ 70 has some excellent value, and the same goes for finishing in Top-3 @ 2.4.
It has a better running order than Norway (#9 has 4 podium finishes including 2 wins since 2014 while #1 has only 2 third places), no juries are involved, and the Nordics will have to split the high scores among themselves leaving someone short.
I would be shocked if: Israel does not deliver in staging and fails to finish in Top-4.
4. Norway
What I think it will happen: It is very possible for Norway to finish in the same position in the Final as well. Eurojury results so far imply that Norway could be a potential Top-5 with Juries and the same could happen with Televoting as well. Opening the Semi - Final might be tough in terms of getting a Top-3 and a good draw in the Final. Will fight with Israel and Czechia for the third spot though.
I would be shocked if: Norway fails to finish in Top-5.
5. Czechia
What I think it will happen: Czechia has lost the momentum it gained in early February, that now feels like ages ago. However, Vesna have improved a lot during the pre-parties and if the staging offers a part of the epicness of the video clip, then Czechia could be back in the Top-10 discussion. It will get some support from the Ukrainian diaspora/supporters as well, we still do not know in what extent.
I would be shocked if: Czechia does not qualify easily.
6. Croatia
What I think it will happen: Croatia is the biggest winner of the rule change. They have taken the right decision to go all-in or go home. They might struggle a bit and finish in a lower position but missing the Final is not a very probable scenario. There it will be a different story but for sure they will not leave the Contest unnoticed.
I would be shocked if: They fail to qualify placed 12th or worse.
7. Moldova
What I think it will happen: I must admit that I cannot read this entry so far. I am aware of its Televoting potential; however, I do find it extremely repetitive and very lazy. It gives me France '22 vibes and it is sandwiched between Israel and Sweden and could be completely forgotten when people start to vote. Had it as a borderline non qualifier but now in my Top-10 but I do find its qualifying odds @ 1.11 extremely short.
I would be shocked if: Moldova finishes in Top-3 or Bottom-3.
8. Serbia
What I think it will happen: We are officially entering in the grey area. Serbia is the definition of a borderline qualifier, always near the very last qualifying spot. The tradition will continue this year as well. The entry has lots of potential and needs to be better than in the national final but even that might be enough.
I would be shocked if: Serbia could enter Top-2.
9. Portugal
What I think it will happen: Another entry that could go both ways. I have it among the qualifiers just because it does have a Televoting appeal. Will not be surprised though if it fails to qualify. One to watch in rehearsals not per se but to see if it sits down well with the entries next to it.
I would be shocked if: Portugal enters Top-5 or finishes in Bottom-3.
10. Switzerland
What I think it will happen: A potential Top-5 with the Juries in Grand Final which might not make it there. Every Semi - Final since 2014 has at least one entry that was saved by the jurors and qualified to the Final. Switzerland might pay the price for the rule change, but I do think it has enough quality to make it and send Netherlands to the dark side. If Iceland made it last year, why not Switzerland?
I would be shocked if: Switzerland makes it to the Top-3.
11. Netherlands
What I think it will happen: The song feels like something is missing and the same could be said about the vocal abilities and chemistry of the duo, at least in the pre-parties. AVROTROS seems to be in panic and these are not good signs. They have time to turn it around, but I highly doubt it.
I would be shocked if: They finish 8th or higher.
12. Latvia
What I think it will happen: Latvia is the last entry that does have a decent chance to qualify in the Final. It will be a struggle though because they need to put Serbia, Netherlands, Switzerland and or Portugal behind them. An introvert song that might find an audience to vote for it.
I would be shocked if: Anything better than 10th it will be a surprise.
13. Malta
What I think it will happen: Malta will try to avoid the last place and it has a decent chance to make it. Qualifying to the Final is out of reach in my opinion.
I would be shocked if: Malta makes it to the Final.
14. Ireland
What I think it will happen: Avoiding the last place is the only goal.
I would be shocked if: Ireland makes it to the Final.
15. Azerbaijan
What I think it will happen: Instant karma for Azerbaijan which was the main reason that the voting rule changed.
I would be shocked if: They finish higher than Bottom-3.
And that concludes my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1.
There is a group of 6 certain qualifiers: Finland, Sweden, Israel, Norway, Czechia, Croatia followed by a group of 6 countries that fight for the 4 remaining tickets: Moldova, Serbia, Portugal, Switzerland, Netherlands, Latvia.
I will be posting my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 2 in the next few days and will do the same with my betting book as well. You might find the first bet of the season as well there...
Rehearsals start in a few days, and it will be interesting to see how the new reality will look like.
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