Eurovision Gods have decided to torture the punters for a second year in a row and apart from Ukraine itself, they have decided to place another pro-Ukraine song in the Contest.
My Sister's Crown would have been the winner if it were the Ukrainian entry for sure.
Representing Czechia makes things more complicated.
The studio version is the only song so far that has some winner vibes, however there are many red flags there.
The live performance is not exactly stellar, and Czechia does not have a great record of staging their songs.
The elephant in the room is whether the televoters will vote Czechia as the unofficial Ukrainian entry or if they will opt to support Ukraine.
Even with all these problems, Czechia is heading for its best or second-best result in the Contest.
Talking about the win though is far-fetched. The absence of other strong entries keeps Czechia afloat for the moment, but the past has shown that you need your momentum in May and not early February...
It reminds me of...
Ukraine '22, Russia '03
Televoting Potential: 9/10
Jury Potential: 6/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 7/10
My Opinion: 8.5/10
Total: 38/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1% - 1.5%
Best case scenario:
Top-4
Worst case scenario:
16th-20th
To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...
80+% to Qualify
What do I see in my crystal ball?
This is a tricky one to predict. We need to keep watching the news in Ukraine. Its Televoting power heavily relies on that. The other unknown factor is its jury power. Will the Eastern European juries go for it? If the answer is yes, Top-4 is within reach.
My gut feeling says 6th-12th.
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