San Remo's quality is high enough to produce a Top-10 caliber song even in a weak or average year and this is the case for San Remo 2023 and 'Due Vite'.
Marco Mengoni was the big name this year and never lost the hot favourite tag since the artist's names were revealed earlier this season.
This is going to be a Jury bait, finishing definitely in Top-5 in that constituency. The red flag will be its Televoting appeal. Mengoni has been in the Contest in '13 and has its own fans and Italian diaspora will be active in certain countries, but will that be enough?
I personally find 'Due Vite' a bit repetitive to be considered a favorite and Italy has the perennial problem of cutting their entries under the 3 minutes mark and sometimes the editing has not worked for them.
If they opt for cutting the intro, the climax will be lost, if they opt for the chorus, Mengoni will lose some of his momentum and the result might be bizarre.
There were also some rumours that he might go with a different song that makes things more complicated....
Overall Italy is a solid Top-10 country that might finish in Top-4/5 if they score well with both constituencies.
It reminds me of...
Italy '13,
Televoting Potential: 7/10
Jury Potential: 9/10
Staging Potential: 8/10
Momentum: 7.5/10
My Opinion: 7.5/10
Total: 39/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1% - 2%
Best case scenario:
Top-3
Worst case scenario:
12th-15th
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Italy could do well with Juries, but I am not sure about its Televoting potential. If they win the Jury voting they might stand a chance, but this is an exceptionally long shot.
7th-10th seems about right.
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