Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Italy

 

Voglio Essere un Duro - Lucio Corsi

San Remo '25 was not the stronger edition of the last few years, but still had enough depth to provide a number of entries that could finish in Top-10 in Eurovision. 

Lucio Corsi was the pleasant surprise of the '25 edition coming out of nowhere to contend for the San Remo trophy. He finished second but Olly's rejection to represent Italy in Eurovision made Lucio's dream come true and become the Italian representative.

'Voglio Essere un Duro' is a beautiful piano ballad that could have been in the soundtrack of an indie film. A feelgood song with some beautiful lyrics that Italy should find a way to project them in different languages like they did back in '18 and finished Top-3 with the public vote. Less is better is the motto of the staging and this could work in a year where most countries are throwing the kitchen sink in the staging and structure of their songs.

Lucio Corsi is a very talented artist that can win the crowd with his warm personality. He is the definition of the guy from next door.  Italy does tick the jury boxes and has the potential to finish in the Top-5 with them, possibly a bit higher, and also secure a three digit score with the public vote that could be enough to propel them in the Top-5/6. Corsi overperformed in San Remo with the public beating the established names and surprised many people. The field in Eurovision is more stacked and there are more televote magnets that are basically non-existent in San Remo.

Italy has a great record of doing better than expected when it is not considered a favourite or an underdog. They did it back in '11 when they finished 2nd after winning the Juries when the majority expected them to finish outside the Top-10. They have done the same thing in '18, finishing 5th with a Top-3 public vote result and Mengoni in '23 was the most recent case, again projected to finish outside or near the Top-10 and he finished 4th. 

I do think that Italy's floor is 7th/8th and they have all the ingredients to work their way to Top-4/5 which will be a great result for them. Just a reminder that Italy has not finished lower than 7th since 2017 and no male Italian artist finished lower than 7th since their return to the Contest in 2011!

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Italy overperforming as usual when it is considered an underdog and finish in Top-5 doing well with both constituencies but a bit better with the Juries. If the perfect storm hits, Italy could become a serious dark horse. 

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 41.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1%-3%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

Not in Top-10

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 150-250 - PV: 100-175 - Tot: 250-425

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think that Italy is an underestimated dark horse or just a Top-10 contender?

You can hear my thoughts about Italy in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Italy

 

First Thoughts:

Another edition of San Remo Festival is over and it has been a tense one.

The battle of the sexes had the first woman winner since 2014 and Angelina Mango will represent Italy with 'La Noia'.

San Remo has a very particular and rather complicated scoring system and Angelina was trailing Geolier the whole week just to win rather comfortably the Top-5 super final.

Italy had  three or four entries that could get a Top-5 result in Eurovision and 'La Noia' is one of them.

An interesting mix of Latin/pop/electro sounds and a charismatic performer are the recipe for success.

Of course Angelina will need a staging concept for Eurovision and a proper choreography to bring out the party elements of the song.

I do have a feeling that Italy will do really well with the Juries and could be in Top-5 with them. My main concern is how this entry will perform with the Televoters and I have more than one reasons to be a bit skeptical.

First of all the televoting performance in San Remo. Of course there was the Geolier phenomenon with people from Napoli and the South voting like crazy for him, but Angelina failed to secure a convincing televote support even in the third night of the show where only half of the entries were performed and she was just 2% ahead of the second in a lineup that was completely empty from favorites and contenders.

 The second reason is that since Italy's return in 2011, the three worst results that Italy has had were all with women artists. (Emma 21st/2014, Francesca Michielin 16th/2016, Nina Zilli 9th/2012). 

There is a notion that San Remo is a place where women struggle to win but the same could be said for Italian women in Eurovision as well.

Add to these factors the televote magnets that will be coming from the Semi - Finals this year and you have a perfect storm against Italy's chances for another Top-5 result.

We need to know the whole field of course and for the moment Italy feels like the second best entry, but I feel that stronger entries will be in contention this year.

Angelina will need to create a momentum during the Contest like she did in San Remo to stand a chance.

For the moment I have Italy somewhere between 4th-8th 7th or 8th is closer to reality and the song's chances. 

I would not be surprised if they miss Top-10 and will be even more surprised if they finish in Top-3.

It reminds me of...

Nothing really comes in mind...

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 40/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

11th-13th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

Final: Js: 125-200 - TV: 75 -125 - Total: 200-325

What do I see in my crystal ball?

'La Noia' staged and performed beautifully, achieving a Top-5 Jury result and lower Top-10 Televote result securing the 7th place for Italy.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Italy

 

First Thoughts:

San Remo's quality is high enough to produce a Top-10 caliber song even in a weak or average year and this is the case for San Remo 2023 and 'Due Vite'.

Marco Mengoni was the big name this year and never lost the hot favourite tag since the artist's names were revealed earlier this season.

This is going to be a Jury bait, finishing definitely in Top-5 in that constituency. The red flag will be its Televoting appeal. Mengoni has been in the Contest in '13 and has its own fans and Italian diaspora will be active in certain countries, but will that be enough?

I personally find 'Due Vite' a bit repetitive to be considered a favorite and Italy has the perennial problem of cutting their entries under the 3 minutes mark and sometimes the editing has not worked for them.

If they opt for cutting the intro, the climax will be lost, if they opt for the chorus, Mengoni will lose some of his momentum and the result might be bizarre.

There were also some rumours that he might go with a different song that makes things more complicated....

Overall Italy is a solid Top-10 country that might finish in Top-4/5 if they score well with both constituencies.

It reminds me of...

Italy '13, 

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 39/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 2%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

12th-15th

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Italy could do well with Juries, but I am not sure about its Televoting potential. If they win the Jury voting they might stand a chance, but this is an exceptionally long shot.

7th-10th seems about right.

Eurovision 2022 - Final - Italy...back-to-back wins will give me chills

50/50 Split Era Performance ('14-'21)

Wins: 1 (2021)

Podium: 3 (2015-2nd*, 2019-2nd, 2021-1st))

Top-10: 5 (2015-2nd, 2017-6th, 2018-5th, 2019-2nd, 2021-1st)

Bottom-5: 1 (2014-23rd)

Buonasera Signore e Signori!

 

This has been a very intense year indeed and tonight will be no exception.

Since the rehearsals started, we have seen numerous changes on the lead with Malta, France and Italy being up there followed by Switzerland and Iceland.

We have lost Bulgaria that was among the favourites and Ukraine has emerged as a dark horse and currently sits fourth in odds.

Now to the Million Dollar question! Who's going to win? This is a tough one! This year has been the most open since at least 2011. All songs in Top-5/6 have their vulnerabilities and that makes things very very interesting for tonight. Some of them are strong with Juries, other are strong with Televoting and some are average with both constituencies but could emerge in case someone else flops.

When I started writing about 2021, I had the feeling that in this post-covid Eurovision people are looking for a reason to party, forget for a night all the problems and difficulties of the past year and have fun. The SF results gave me the same impression with lighter, fun songs qualifying.

If there is one thing, I'm sure about is that tonight, we will have the smallest winning margin of the 50/50 voting era (currently 23pts - 2016). 

I have spent the last few days watching the different metrics (YouTube views, like-dislike ratio, charts, social media mentions ) and have taken in consideration all those numbers in my prediction/estimation for the Final.

Without further ado this is my 1 -26 prediction/estimation for tonight. Just a note for the points. The numbers might be inflated as I'm estimating the best-case scenario with each constituency

1. Italy 480 - 540 pts

J: 4th/ 180-210 pts - TV: 2nd/ 300-330pts

Currently the big favourite. Maneskin have conquered the top from the first rehearsal and have stayed there for the longest part of this week. They are performing in 24, surrounded by some jury magnets that highlights their televoting quality. 

Ukraine is now challenging their No1 status there, but the big question mark is how they will perform with Juries. They need a minimum of 180-200 pts there to feel safe. If they reach that threshold, win is theirs. The song might seem a bit aggressive, but Damiano is vocally perfect and there is no reason for Juries to punish them.

The win is currently @ 3.20. There may be a better timing to find a better price during the Jury voting if they are 3rd - 5th.

For those that feel confident for their Televote win the odds are in the 2.25-2.50 area.

2. Malta 430 - 510 pts

J: 1st/ 230-280 pts  - TV: 4th/ 200-230pts

Currently the third favourite @ 6.40. Will fight with France for the Jury win (@4.10 and has a big chance for the win if it makes it to the Top-4 with Televoting. That is Malta's biggest problem in general and starting in slot 6 does not help at all. 

Juries are ok to give the win to an entry that start early in the show, but Televoters are not that keen. Only Russia in 2019 managed to finish in Top-4...

The other tell that the running order suggests is that Malta has not won the Televoting in the SF and was not even second, otherwise the producers would have given them a better spot.

If they nail the Televoting though, there are in for the win, but it can equally flop and drop a few spots.

3. Switzerland 430 - 490 pts

J: 3rd/ 210-240 pts - TV: 3rd/ 220-250pts

The potential default winner. Switzerland has done its full circle in and out of the hot favourites circle. Currently is fifth in odds @ 13.00.

Juries will highly rank this one and will get some Televoting love. I might have overestimated its Televoting power, but it will be up there. If the winning threshold drops below 500 pts with four countries over 400pts each, Switzerland could benefit and win. 

Running order (11) suggests that did very well in SF.

Top-4 finish @ 2.10 - 2.25 is a safe bet.

4. Ukraine 410 - 470 pts

J: 8th/ 110-120 pts - TV: 1st/ 300-350pts

Our dark horse. During the SF on Tuesday Ukraine was trading @30-36! It has come a long way and the main reason is that it is charting everywhere, and the YouTube views and likes are massive. 

If the Jury score is better than the one above, brace yourselves for a surprise winner!

Winning the Televoting is currently @ 3.75 - 4.20 and Top-4 @ 1.80-1.95

The Win is currently @ 8.00-8.20

5. France 395 - 485 pts

J: 2nd/ 220-260 pts - TV: 5th/ 175-225pts

The second favourite now, though it has started drifting as of this morning. I have been sceptical about France since the first time that I have heard it. I do get its jury appeal, I do get its televoting appeal with certain demographics, but I do think that having it 5th is the super optimistic scenario for France. 

Being sandwiched between Lithuania, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan it helps it stand out, but people will still be talking about Ukraine when this is on.

It needs a landslide win with Juries to stand a chance.

6. Iceland 290 - 360 pts

J: 5th/ 150-180 pts - TV: 6th/ 140-180pts

Iceland using the live on tape has totally killed their momentum. People know that they are not live on stage and that might be off putting. They may score better with Televoting than my prediction, but 4th place is its ceiling. 

If you are a believer Top-5 is currently @ 2.74

7. Lithuania 190 - 220 pts

J: 12th/ 80-90 pts - TV: 7th/ 110-130pts

Lithuania has lost its momentum. Televoting can guarantee a secure Top-10 finish but wouldn't be surprised if it missed Top-10. 

8. Portugal 175 - 195 pts

J: 7th/ 125-135 pts - TV: 15th/ 50-60pts

The other late bloomer that might end up finishing in Top-10 and no one will be surprised.

Top-10 @ 1.90-2.08

9. Finland 165 - 185 pts

J: 13th/ 75-85 pts - TV: 9th/ 90-100pts

Another charts bloomer. YouTube views and like plus the charting suggest a strong televoting result that might guarantee a Top-10 finish. No value there though.

10. Russia 150 - 180 pts

J: 15th/ 50-60 pts - TV: 8th/ 100-120pts

Mamma Russia has the allies and the televoting power that can secure a Top-10 result.

If you believe in Russian Woman Top-10 is @ 2.75-3.00

I will continue with my 11-26 estimations just for the bragging rights before getting to the betting part of the post

11. Netherlands 150 - 180 pts

J: 6th/ 130-150 pts - TV: 22nd/ 20-30pts

12. San Marino 125 -145 pts

J: 18th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 10th/ 90-100pts

13. Belgium 130 - 145 pts

J: 9th/ 100-110 pts - TV: 19th/ 30-35pts

14. Sweden 120 -140 pts

J: 10th/ 95-105 pts - TV: 20th/ 25-35pts

15. Serbia 115 - 135 pts

J: 16th/ 45-55 pts - TV: 11th/ 70-80pts

16. Bulgaria 115 - 135 pts

J: 11th/ 90-100 pts - TV: 21st/ 25-35pts

17. Cyprus 110 -130 pts

J: 14th/ 55-65 pts - TV: 13th/ 55-65pts

18. Azerbaijan 95 -115 pts

J: 20th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 12th/ 60-70pts

19. Norway 90 - 110 pts

J: 19th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 14th/ 55-65pts

20. Greece 80 -100 pts

J: 17th/ 40-50 pts - TV: 16th/ 40-50pts

21. Albania 65 - 85 pts

J: 22nd/ 30-40 pts - TV: 17th/ 35-45pts

22. Moldova 65 - 85 pts

J: 21st/ 30-40 pts - TV: 18th/ 35-45pts

23. Israel 40 - 60 pts

J: 23rd/ 20-30 pts - TV: 23rd/ 20-30pts

24. Spain 25 - 40 pts

J: 24th/ 15-25 pts - TV: 25th/ 10-15pts

25. Germany 20 - 30 pts

J: 26th/ 5-10 pts - TV: 24th/ 15-25pts

26. UK 15 - 25 pts

J: 25th/ 10-15 pts - TV:26th/ 5-10pts

Betting Time

The SF bets could have been better, especially SF2, but the fact that I had 8/10 in both SFs with the 9th and 10th spots being missed and 11th and 12th making it is a proof that I'm heading to the right direction.

The results so far

SF - 1

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (3.68) - 20 units - Open

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open

Units played: 200

Units returned: 191

Open Units: 25

SF - 2

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units - Lost

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units - Lost

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units - Lost

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units - Lost

Units played: 200

Units returned: 0

So, I have 2 open bets from SF-1 and 191 units to add to the 600 that were reserved for the Final, so 791 units in total.

And here we go

Final 

Ukraine Top-4 Finish - 1.80 - 191 units

Italy Enhanced Win - 3.10 - 200 units

Ukraine Televote Winner - 3.75 - 100 units

Netherlands to beat Spain - 1.61 - 200 units

Russia Top-10 Finish - 2.75 - 50 units

And my fun bets

Israel Last - 10.00 - 25 units

Serbia Top of Region - 3.00 - 25 units

Units played: 791

Open Units: 25

For those following the bet on Italy to win, if you have the patience and wait for the Jury voting, I reckon you will find it at a better price.

Good luck with your bets tonight. Thank you all for your support and trust during the whole Eurovision season!

I will try to beat the post Eurovision depression by posting about the results and my betting outcome.