Another edition of San Remo Festival is over and it has been a tense one.
The battle of the sexes had the first woman winner since 2014 and Angelina Mango will represent Italy with 'La Noia'.
San Remo has a very particular and rather complicated scoring system and Angelina was trailing Geolier the whole week just to win rather comfortably the Top-5 super final.
Italy had three or four entries that could get a Top-5 result in Eurovision and 'La Noia' is one of them.
An interesting mix of Latin/pop/electro sounds and a charismatic performer are the recipe for success.
Of course Angelina will need a staging concept for Eurovision and a proper choreography to bring out the party elements of the song.
I do have a feeling that Italy will do really well with the Juries and could be in Top-5 with them. My main concern is how this entry will perform with the Televoters and I have more than one reasons to be a bit skeptical.
First of all the televoting performance in San Remo. Of course there was the Geolier phenomenon with people from Napoli and the South voting like crazy for him, but Angelina failed to secure a convincing televote support even in the third night of the show where only half of the entries were performed and she was just 2% ahead of the second in a lineup that was completely empty from favorites and contenders.
The second reason is that since Italy's return in 2011, the three worst results that Italy has had were all with women artists. (Emma 21st/2014, Francesca Michielin 16th/2016, Nina Zilli 9th/2012).
There is a notion that San Remo is a place where women struggle to win but the same could be said for Italian women in Eurovision as well.
Add to these factors the televote magnets that will be coming from the Semi - Finals this year and you have a perfect storm against Italy's chances for another Top-5 result.
We need to know the whole field of course and for the moment Italy feels like the second best entry, but I feel that stronger entries will be in contention this year.
Angelina will need to create a momentum during the Contest like she did in San Remo to stand a chance.
For the moment I have Italy somewhere between 4th-8th 7th or 8th is closer to reality and the song's chances.
I would not be surprised if they miss Top-10 and will be even more surprised if they finish in Top-3.
It reminds me of...
Nothing really comes in mind...
Televoting Potential: 7/10
Jury Potential: 8.5/10
Staging Potential: 8/10
Momentum: 8/10
My Opinion: 8.5/10
Total: 40/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
1% - 3%
Best case scenario:
Top-3
Worst case scenario:
11th-13th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
Final: Js: 125-200 - TV: 75 -125 - Total: 200-325
What do I see in my crystal ball?
'La Noia' staged and performed beautifully, achieving a Top-5 Jury result and lower Top-10 Televote result securing the 7th place for Italy.
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