Wednesday 21 February 2024

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Lithuania

 

First Thoughts:

Lithuania's best result in Eurovision was back in 2006 when they finished 6th.

Silvester Belt's 'Luktelk' will try to beat that record.

This is a Eurovision ready entry already from its national final with a very slick and catchy vibe.



The fact that is in Lithuanian actually adds to its value. The song grabs you from the first second and does not let you take a breath until the end.

It is missing the great moment though and it gets a bit repetitive by the end that hurts its chances to be considered a contender, having a ceiling at Top-4/5 but I have a feeling that the Lithuanian delegation would have been more than happy with that.

The Semi - Final will not be a problem for them in a Televote only voting system, with UK, Ireland, Ukraine, Poland in the same semi.

'Luktelk' has a nice package for Juries as well to appreciate and the same could happen with the western ears.

Lithuania finished 11th and 14th in the last two years with entries that were far more average than this one so a Top-10 result is more than probable next May.

And then it remains to be seen if Lithuania has enough fuel to enter the Top-5.


It reminds me of...

 Belgium '15 (Q)


Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 45/50


What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

12th-14th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-150

Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 100 -225 - Total: 175-400


What do I see in my crystal ball?

Lithuania finishing in Top-3 in the Semi - Final getting a decent allocation draw for the Final and finish 5th-6th.

It is one my favorite entries this year and would be very happy to see them do well. 

Will be surprised if they miss Top-10 somehow.


You can hear some thoughts about Lithuania in the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at


Spotify and Soundcloud


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