I will start my analysis not from the first national final taking place tonight but from the last one.
San Remo it is. I have watched the whole show in all four nights and what a roller coaster it has been. Annalisa and Loredana Berte' were the ladies that opened the Festival bringing a moment from the season and the pre-listening of the songs. However from la Prima Serata it was obvious that we have two true contenders named Geolier and Angelina Mango.
Geolier won la Seconda Serata in packed with contenders line up and Angelina boosted her chances playing by herself in Terza Serata. Annalisa was solidified as third and Irama and Mahmood are the ones that have survived the big names drop in the scoreboard (Il Volo, Diodato, Berte')
Angelina Mango became the favorite on Thursday night however last night showed that Geolier is unstoppable. Angelina presented a song that her late father was meant to perform back in San Remo 2002 but unfortunately passed away before he was able to perform it. Angelina's performance was the most touching of all yesterday and her vocal abilities were highlighted. I considered that performance to be a career highlight and even that was not enough for her to win the night.
Which brings us to Geolier the winner of last night that somehow is still #2 in odds. He won last night and the rumors about his televote numbers suggest that he wins it by a landslide. The main concern is how could the juries harm his chances for the win.
I do think that the Televote will be more than enough for him to win San Remo and I can't see how the jurors can really affect his chances.
He represents Napoli and the South and he does get a televote boost from them but let's not forget that jurors as well come from these areas and I don't think that they would try to harm him in any way.
Angelina is still the favorite to win in odds but I do think that they only way for the win to happen is to get the whole female support and this seems a bit out of touch.
Annalisa faces the same problem and in my opinion has the weakest entry from the three to surpass both of them,
Mahmood feels like a certain Top-5 contestant but third is the absolute best he could do and that leaves Irama that steadily hovers around Top-4/5.
He has the only ballad/slow tempo entry from these five and that could give him an advantage and make the big surprise.
I do believe the only path possible for someone else to take the win from Geolier is if we have only one female in Top-5 between Annalisa and Angelina Mango but that does not seem very possible.
My Top-5 for tonight is
1. Geolier
2. Angelina Mango
3. Annalisa
4. Mahmood
5. Irama
Geolier to win San Remo @2.75 (betfair) is my tip for tonight.
UMK2024 in Finland is the second most important final tonight with seven acts taking the stage in Tampere.
I have not followed this year closely but Sara Siipola should be the winner tonight. Michael Gabriel and Nublu is the second act in odds and Cyan Kicks the third.
I am not involved in this market at all. I do think Sara Siipola will win but her odds have no value at all.
The third final is Supernova 2024 in Latvia is the weakest final of the night. The last time Latvia has qualified to the Eurovision final was back in 2016.
This year they do have an entry that could finish the course and send them to the Final and that is Dons with 'Hollow'.
His performance in the Supernova semi-final needs some polishing but it is the only entry that could send them in the Final.
At 1.10 to win of course there is not value and I do struggle to find anything decent that could surprise us and take the ticket.
Tonight there is also the second Heat in Melodifestivalen in Sweden with Liamoo and Maria Sur being the certain qualifiers in my opinion. Both of them have no value at all whatsoever.
My focus will be San Remo tonight and I will be commenting in twitter.
I wish good luck to all for favorites tonight and may we have the strongest possible line up for Eurovision this year.
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