One of the most anticipated entries of the year with Mustii being the first artist that was announced back in August to represent Belgium.
Belgium will try to extend its current qualifying streak to four, setting the record for the Semi - Final era.
'Before the Party's Over' is a very interesting composition with a very slow build up, trying to balance the different elements that happen simultaneously.
The build up lasts almost two minutes and then we have a very nice climax that lasts for a few seconds and then the song becomes repetitive.
Although I do like the song and I do find it interesting, there are so many red flags there that cannot go unnoticed.
The most important for me is that it feels very Eurovision by numbers. Two of the composers and lyricists have participated in the Contest multiple times both with mixed results. I am getting the impression that they are trying too hard some times to create a vibe in the song and they fail to do so.
I had to listen to the song many times before I was able to remember a part of it.
There is a fine line between an artistic entry and a pretentious pseudo-artistic one and this one is balancing right in the middle.
I do think that Belgium released its song on the perfect timing, just when Ryk's fans were looking out for their new savior.
We need to see the full lineup and of course the staging and the song performed live, but this is far from a guaranteed Top-5 with Juries result and I am very pessimistic about its Televoting power.
It takes very long to lift and might be off putting for many viewers. It might struggle in the Semi - Final as well and that could be enough to hurt its chances for a great result in the Final.
For me this is a mid-table entry that could maybe reach Top-10 with the perfect storm but does not feel like a 100% safe qualifier at the same time.
Belgium has two recent examples that we should have in mind, back to back. In 2018 with Sennek that was fourth favorite to win the Contest pre-rehearsals and did not qualify in the end with a 50/50 voting system as well.
Next year Eliot, whose entry was co-composed by one of Mustii's composers, had one of the dullest and most uninspiring stagings of all time, failing again to qualify.
All things said, Belgium is looking for a mid-table result.
It reminds me of...
Belgium '18 - '19 (NQ), Australia '22 (Q)
Televoting Potential: 6/10
Jury Potential: 8/10
Staging Potential: 8/10
Momentum: 6/10
My Opinion: 7/10
Total: 35/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1% - 1%
Best case scenario:
6th-8th
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 45-75
Final: Js: 50-150 - TV: 20 -75 - Total: 70-225
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Belgium struggling to qualify, finishing 8th-10th in the Semi- Final and then finishing mid-table, 14th-16th.
This is an entry that I am looking forward to see how they will stage it but not very confident for its chances yet.
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