Vidbir loves drama and 2024 was no exception. A broken voting app was the reason it took almost 20 hours longer to confirm that Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil will represent Ukraine to Eurovision with 'Teresa & Maria'.
It has been the favorite since the day we have heard the songs and won televote by a landslide.
This is the first entry of the year that is considered a contender and currently leads the market, dropping as low as 3.15, now hovering around 4.00.
There is not much to comment on the Vidbir performance because I am sure that Ukraine will have a different and better staging for the contest.
Based on what we have seen this Saturday this feels more like a Top-3/6 song than a real contender.
But as I mentioned before, if there is one country that knows what to do on Eurovision stage that is Ukraine and they do need this entry to remind Europe that they are still in a war and need their help.
'Teresa & Maria' does provide the ground for a big moment on stage that could be decisive for a Eurovision win.
Ukraine has the televote power to be in Top-3 or higher, provided they improve their staging and if they can be inside or very close to Juries' Top-5 then anything could happen.
We are still very early in the season and none of the powerhouses has a song yet, but for the moment this is the one to beat, but does not shout winner yet.
I would be surprised if they fail to finish lower than Top-6, especially when they did that last year with an underwhelming entry.
Winning is a tough ask but I reckon they would be happy with a Top-3 result either way and this is probably where they will be in the end.
It reminds me of...
Ukraine '16 (Q) - (Win)
Televoting Potential: 9.5/10
Jury Potential: 7/10
Staging Potential: 9.5/10
Momentum: 8/10
My Opinion: 8/10
Total: 42/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
5% - 10%
Best case scenario:
Winner
Worst case scenario:
7th-8th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 140-170
Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 175 -300 - Total: 250-475
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Ukraine will be the elephant in the room for a third year in a row. Last year they have chosen music over politics and they managed to finish sixth with an entry that before the war would have finished 12th-18th.
The diaspora and the allies will be there to secure enough Televote points to be in Top-3 and the big question mark are the Juries.
The song has nothing that would force them to punish it, but they might be tempted to ignore them just to balance things out and make sure that we won't have a second Ukrainian win in a three year span.
3rd or 4th feels like the place they will land.
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