Four finals and three semi-finals will all take place this Saturday and eurofans will have a hard time choosing which show to watch.
I will take a closer look to the four finals and the Melfest Heat-1 and leave the Baltic semi-finals for a future post.
So let's start with Vidbir which is the first show tomorrow night. This is a one horse race in my opinion. The song that stood out from the first day is 'Teresa & Maria' that feels like the certain winner and the market agrees with its current price being 1.10.
This is the only entry from everything that we have heard so far that has a Top-5 potential and could finish even higher depending on the field.
Ukraine has a clear advantage with the Televoting because of its diaspora and the on-going war and 'Teresa & Maria' does not give any reason for the Juries to punish it. This is the ideal entry for them to remind Europe that the war is not over.
'Palala' and 'Tsunamia' are the outsiders that will complete the podium. I am not very confident that we could have an upset win in Vidbir, but if it happens, it will be any of these two.
Moving to Norway and Melodi Grand Prix 2024. After three not that exciting, in terms of suspense, Heats it comes down to Gate vs KEiiNO vs Super Rob/Erika Norwich.
Gate became the favorite just after the end of Heat 2 and they remained there since today. KEiiNO were close but drifted a bit when the running order was revealed and we found out that they are opening the Final.
Running order was the reason that 'My AI' is third favorite being the entry that will close the Final at #9. Gate perform at #8.
There are three more entries that could possibly sneak in Top-3 or even be runner-ups. These are Gothminister at #3, Miia at #5 and Margaret Berger at #6.
My estimation is that 'Ulveham' is the one to win MGP 2024, signing the change of direction from NRK that had some very decent results recently based on the Televoting but struggled with the Juries.
'Ulveham' is the only entry that could find a balance between the two constituencies and aim for a very good result.
'Damdiggida' misses the epic and pagan elements that lifted 'Spirit in the Sky' back in 2019, elements that 'Ulveham' does have. Opening the Final was another hint that NRK does prefer someone else and they have strong competition for the televotes.
'My AI' could get a part of those votes but it does not offer a strong enough package for the jurors as well.
'We Come Alive' has a better and funnier stage presence to sneak in Top-3. At prices over 25 it is worth a fun bet to win MGP (I have them @55 pre-Heats)
Gate to win @1.50 have no value being traded @2.75-3.50 two weeks ago.
MESC 2024 will give us the third song for the night. Not much to say or comment here. Matt Blxck with 'Banana' is the grand favorite to win @1.35 and whoever has not seen the video-clip is in for a treat.
I do have a feeling that Malta might choose a different direction than go bananas. There are a few options that do present some value and these are Ryan Hili with 'Karma' @5.00, Sarah Bonnici with 'Loop' @15.00 and Lisa Gauci with 'Breathe' @ 80.
'Karma' is the best slow tempo entry in their Final and 'Loop' is the bop entry that is not a parody of a song.
I am not sure that there is an entry that could save them and guarantee a qualification to the Final next May. But the three mentioned above might give them a fighting chance.
The tenth entry for Eurovision 2024 will come from Benidorm Fest late at night. What a week full of drama it was!
The winner of the Televote from Semi-Final 1 did not qualify because it finished last with Juries. Nebulossa won that Semi-Final just by producing a great staging and party atmosphere with their song 'Zorra' and the two favorites, Angy Fernandez and Sofia Coll, finished second and third in a very non-competitive Semi-Final.
And then came Semi -Final 2 with the bar raised a bit. St Pedro with 'Dos Extranos' won easily and is getting ready to represent Spain next May.
Maria Pelae and Jorge Gonzalez were second and third and I do have a feeling that this will be the Top-3 in the Final with a small twist between Maria Pelae and Jorge Gonzalez.
It is safe to say that St Pedro will be the jury winner and Maria Pelae will finish second. Jorge Gonzalez struggled there finishing just sixth but I feel that the judges will not be that harsh with him today.
If he manages to somehow sneak in Top-3 he might have a chance if he wins both Televote and Demoscopic Jury. Jorge Gonzalez to win Benidorm @8.00 has still value being the most probable runner up (got him @40 pre-Xmas!)
Maria Pelae can be a solid second to fourth in all constituencies and secure a Top-3. I have backed her to finish Top-3 @2.66 at stoiximan (for those in Greece and Cyprus).
St Pedro current odds have no value. He was trading @1.85-2.50 just a few days ago. I do have the feeling that he will be the winner but the voting will be tense and the difference smaller than the odds suggest.
And now that the Finals are gone, a quick look at Melodifestivalen Heat-1. Having heard the one minute snippet of the six songs, it is safe to say that there is not a single entry that will stand out from this Heat.
All entries feel very generic which is the problem with Melfest the last few years. Smash Into Pieces feels like a certain qualifier performing at #6 but there is no value at their odds(1.03-1.08).
My suspicion is that the low bar could help one of the underdogs to secure the direct place at the Melfest Final and that entry is Lisa Ajax with 'Awful Liar'.
She performs at #5 which is a tell of how producers perceive the song and she could totally surpass Adam Woods that is the second favorite and opens the Heat.
Lisa Ajax to qualify @3.00 is a risk worth taking.
Good luck with your favorites tonight and let's hope that we will have a strong line up for Eurovision, hopefully with no bananas...
In the next few days the first episode of our new podcast 'Talk About Things' will be aired! Stay tunned...
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