Germany tonight, Moldova, Estonia, Denmark and Lithuania have their national finals in the busiest weekend of the season so far, with Sweden and Iceland also having their Semi- Finals at the same time.
Let's start with Germany where nine songs will compete for the win.
The odds suggest an one horse race with Ryk being the heavy favorite to represent Germany currently at 1.35-1.38. I do find these odds very very short and with no value whatsoever, especially because we are talking about Germany with 50% of the votes coming from the German public.
The public has been unpredictable in the past and the nature of the majority of the entries being slow tempo might affect Ryk's favoritism.
Betting wise there are three strategies that someone could use in this particular National Final:
1. No bet: If you think that Ryk is the clear favorite and one way or the other will win the final.
2. Lay Ryk: If you have access to Betfair exchange this is the best way to go. With the current price at 1.38, laying means you get approximately 4 times your money if any other artist wins.
3. Invest 5 units divided as following: Bodine Monet x 2 (4.2), Max Mutzke (8), Marie Reim (40), Isaak (27) x 1, investing a small amount of money that could bring a large profit if an outsider wins.
I will personally use a combination of the latter two but will not invest a big amount of money either way.
The first Final on Saturday is Etapa Nationala in Moldova. I have nothing to say here as this is a country that I have not watched/followed at all this year. Natalia Barbu is the favorite at 1.25 and I do not have any comment or recommendation for this one.
Eesti Laul in Estonia is the one that will grab my attention early in the evening. 5miinust & Puuluup were trading at 2.50 6 weeks ago and were the second favorite to win Eesti Laul and their price is currently at 1.10-1.20.
Any thoughts for opposing the favorite are just wishful thinking in my opinion. The format to decide the winner is a 50/50 split between a jury and the public voting, leading to a super final between the three best acts with a 100% televote which is the reason why I think that 5miinust & Puuluup is a done deal.
For those that are eager to bet on something, some bookies offer a Top-3 result, Daniel Levi at 1.50 feels like a safe option. I have also placed a fun bet on Ewert and the Two Dragons at 20.
Dansk Melodi Grand Prix will be the third Final of the day and things there are a bit more open. It feels like a two horse race between Saba at 1.95, opening the Final, and Aura Dione at 3.50, closing the Final.
This is not a particularly strong final and these are the two entries that slightly stand out. The voting system is 50/50 juries and public vote, with half of the jurors coming from the last five Eurovision Winner countries. Then there will be a super final for the Top-3 with the same format to decide the winner.
Between the two, my personal preference is Aura Dione at 3.50 and this is my bet on the Winner market.
Stoiximan in Greece and Cyprus offers a few interesting side markets. Aura Dione and Saba to finish in Top-3 at 1.40 feels like money in the bank.
The other option that has some value in my opinion is Saba and RoseeLu to finish in Top-3 at 3.00.
For those thinking that Denmark will once again peak the boy band, Ublu to Finish in Top-3 at 3.40 is an option.
This is a very average national final and the differences between the second and the fifth song will not be huge. Televote awards only one vote per artist and that could minimize the margins as well.
This is the reason why I have chosen to risk a bit.
Again my investment is not huge, trying to have a nice profit but not risking any of my profits during the national finals season.
The last final for the weekend is Eurovizija.LT in Lithuania. Another two horse race here with Silvester Belt currently leading the odds at 1.35-1.45 followed by Roop at 2.10-2.35.
'Luktelk' is by far the best Lithuanian entry of the last decade and should be the winner, competing against the weakest of the three songs that Roop have submitted for Eurovision.
Silvester Belt even at 1.45 still has some value.
Good luck to your favorites this weekend and don't forget to tune in this Tuesday to the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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