Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Lithuania

 

Tavo Akys - Katarsis

Lithuania is quietly building a great qualification streak (currently 4 Qs) in the '20s, which is also the longest in their history.

'Tavo Akys' is one of the most interesting entries of the year serving a genre (grunge indie) that we rarely see in Eurovision but it definitely has an audience and could do well throughout the continent.

Qualification is not in question here. The main goal for Lithuania is to reach the Top-10, something that they have achieved only 3 times in their 24 participations. The Lithuanian diaspora is always there to support their country and the few allies could give them the ammo that they need to reach the 150+ points to get there.

In my opinion, Lithuania will be a Top-10 entry in the Public vote and I do believe that a mid-table to Top-10 result with the Juries is also achievable. The song is not aggressive to be marked down and the vocals are in place as well. This is a genre that could perform really well in Eastern and Central Europe. 

Lithuania has been the country whose televote score was supressed the most by the Ukrainian inflated numbers and maybe this is the time to get back some of these points.

8th to 12th is where I currently have Lithuania in my rankings.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Lithuania finishing 4th-5th in the Semi - Final, which is full of friends and diaspora and then achieve a left hand-side result finishing 10th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 39.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

17th-19th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-110

F: J: 40-70 - PV: 60-120 - Tot: 100-190

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Lithuania be the shocker Top-10 entry of the Final? 

You can hear my thoughts about Lithuania in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Lithuania

 

First Thoughts:

Lithuania's best result in Eurovision was back in 2006 when they finished 6th.

Silvester Belt's 'Luktelk' will try to beat that record.

This is a Eurovision ready entry already from its national final with a very slick and catchy vibe.

The fact that is in Lithuanian actually adds to its value. The song grabs you from the first second and does not let you take a breath until the end.

It is missing the great moment though and it gets a bit repetitive by the end that hurts its chances to be considered a contender, having a ceiling at Top-4/5 but I have a feeling that the Lithuanian delegation would have been more than happy with that.

The Semi - Final will not be a problem for them in a Televote only voting system, with UK, Ireland, Ukraine, Poland in the same semi.

'Luktelk' has a nice package for Juries as well to appreciate and the same could happen with the western ears.

Lithuania finished 11th and 14th in the last two years with entries that were far more average than this one so a Top-10 result is more than probable next May.

And then it remains to be seen if Lithuania has enough fuel to enter the Top-5.

It reminds me of...

 Belgium '15 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 45/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

12th-14th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-150

Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 100 -225 - Total: 175-400

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Lithuania finishing in Top-3 in the Semi - Final getting a decent allocation draw for the Final and finish 5th-6th.

It is one my favorite entries this year and would be very happy to see them do well. 

Will be surprised if they miss Top-10 somehow.

You can hear some thoughts about Lithuania in the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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The one for the Baltics and the Northern Europe

 

By Saturday night we will know more than half of the songs that will be competing in Malmö next May.

Germany tonight, Moldova, Estonia, Denmark and Lithuania have their national finals in the busiest weekend of the season so far, with Sweden and Iceland also having their Semi- Finals at the same time.

Let's start with Germany where nine songs will compete for the win.

The odds suggest an one horse race with Ryk being the heavy favorite to represent Germany currently at 1.35-1.38. I do find these odds very very short and with no value whatsoever, especially because we are talking about Germany with 50% of the votes coming from the German public. 

The public has been unpredictable in the past and the nature of the majority of the entries being slow tempo might affect Ryk's favoritism. 

Betting wise there are three strategies that someone could use in this particular National Final:

1. No bet: If you think that Ryk is the clear favorite and one way or the other will win the final. 

2. Lay Ryk: If you have access to Betfair exchange this is the best way to go. With the current price at 1.38, laying means you get approximately 4 times your money if any other artist wins.

3. Invest 5 units divided as following: Bodine Monet x 2 (4.2), Max Mutzke (8), Marie Reim (40), Isaak (27) x 1, investing a small amount of money that could bring a large profit if an outsider wins.

I will personally use a combination of the latter two but will not invest a big amount of money either way.

The first Final on Saturday is Etapa Nationala in Moldova. I have nothing to say here as this is a country that I have not watched/followed at all this year. Natalia Barbu is the favorite at 1.25 and I do not have any comment or recommendation for this one.

Eesti Laul in Estonia is the one that will grab my attention early in the evening. 5miinust & Puuluup were trading at 2.50 6 weeks ago and were the second favorite to win Eesti Laul and their price is currently at 1.10-1.20.

Any thoughts for opposing the favorite are just wishful thinking in my opinion. The format to decide the winner is a 50/50 split between a jury and the public voting, leading to a super final between the three best acts with a 100% televote which is the reason why I think that 5miinust & Puuluup is a done deal.

For those that are eager to bet on something, some bookies offer a Top-3 result, Daniel Levi at 1.50 feels like a safe option. I have also placed a fun bet on Ewert and the Two Dragons at 20.

Dansk Melodi Grand Prix will be the third Final of the day and things there are a bit more open. It feels like a two horse race between Saba at 1.95, opening the Final, and Aura Dione at 3.50, closing the Final.

This is not a particularly strong final and these are the two entries that slightly stand out. The voting system is 50/50 juries and public vote, with half of the jurors coming from the last five Eurovision Winner countries. Then there will be a super final for the Top-3 with the same format to decide the winner. 

Between the two, my personal preference is Aura Dione at 3.50 and this is my bet on the Winner market.

Stoiximan in Greece and Cyprus offers a few interesting  side markets. Aura Dione and Saba to finish in Top-3 at 1.40 feels like money in the bank.

The other option that has some value in my opinion is Saba and RoseeLu to finish in Top-3 at 3.00.

For those thinking that Denmark will once again peak the boy band, Ublu to Finish in Top-3 at 3.40 is an option.

This is a very average national final and the differences between the second and the fifth song will not be huge. Televote awards only one vote per artist and that could minimize the margins as well. 

This is the reason why I have chosen to risk a bit.

Again my investment is not huge, trying to have a nice profit but not risking any of my profits during the national finals season.

The last final for the weekend is Eurovizija.LT in Lithuania. Another two horse race here with Silvester Belt currently leading the odds at 1.35-1.45 followed by Roop at 2.10-2.35.

'Luktelk' is by far the best Lithuanian entry of the last decade and should be the winner, competing against the weakest of the three songs that Roop have submitted for Eurovision. 

Silvester Belt even at 1.45 still has some value.

Good luck to your favorites this weekend and don't forget to tune in this Tuesday to the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Lithuania

 

First Thoughts:

'Stay' is a stereotypical safe Eurovision entry. Will not crash, it might qualify to the Final and be used as a filler for other entries.

Lithuania is incredibly lucky that they are in Semi-Final 2 and the chances are on their side.

It will be marginal and some of their voting allies like Latvia and Ireland that could guarantee minimum 18-20 points are on the other Semi.

They might not need them though. There are still a few friendly faces, and some 1-5 points here and there could be enough for the 50-60 points threshold.

The entry still gives me Melfest reject vibes though. 

If in the Final, they will need all the help they could get to avoid Bottom-5.

It reminds me of...

15-20 entries just in the last decade

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 5.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 26.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.1%

Best case scenario:

19th-22nd

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

55% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Lithuania qualifying 7th-10th and then get a first half draw, performing third and finish in Bottom-5.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 1 - 3. Lithuania...is Sentimental

Qualifying Record: 9/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 1. Lithuania

 

1. Lithuania

Qualifying Record: 8/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ