Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 1. Lithuania

 

1. Lithuania

Qualifying Record: 8/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Lithuania will be the first Eurovision song that we will hear exactly 2 years after the last one. Discoteque is aiming high this year flirting with the best result ever (6th). Ideal opener for that favourite heavy first half of the Semi.

We already know the dynamic of the song live and the vocal abilities of the band so there won't be any surprises there. 

As you can see on the above chart, Lithuania tends to score better with PV thanks to its diaspora ( Ireland, I'm talking to you...)

Will qualify because... is one of the better quality songs of the semi. Has qualified back in 2015 opening the semi again.

Will not qualify because... since 2015 only one of the two opening songs qualifies every year...San Marino or Lithuania 😕

Realistic expectations for the Semi: 3rd - 6th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order?: Cyprus 19', Sweden 17' both qualified

Interesting Facts about the Running Order: No song placed higher than 3rd on Televoting in the 50/50 era

What happens next...: One way or another I think that Lithuania will qualify to the final. The thing is how high will it finish. I think that a left table finish is almost certain, Top-10 is within reach. Opening the semi might affect its ranking and possible momentum. It is still very early though.

A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: 6th -12th 

Some More Data: Lithuania's points are balanced on the wider field of the Final. PV again slightly better because of the diaspora but nothing extreme ( call me Poland). Discoteque is well balanced and can get points from both territories.