Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 5. Austria

 5. Austria

Qualifying Record: 5/10

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

                                                                Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Austria had an amazing streak running between 2014-2018 with 5 participations in the Final, a win and a third place, and ended abruptly back in 2019. That was the best run in their long Eurovision history.

Amen gives me the impression of a hybrid that tries to combine Nothing But You and Running On Air. That religious theme with a classic ballad's elements. Looks like a safe choice for Austria that has gained some credibility with Juries.

The running order is tricky, but the weak level of the SF leaves some room for optimism. 5th place is usually reserved for an up-tempo song and has given some satisfactory results with the 50/50 but this is a different cup of tea.

I think this will be a borderline entry. 

Will qualify because... will get some Jury love (Top-5/8) and is a friendly SF with many western countries that could guarantee the 105-115 points needed. Will attract some religious votes and some Philippine diaspora PV as well.

Will not qualify because... It might be perceived as very blunt and comes after Greece and San Marino.

Realistic expectations for the Semi: 10th-14th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Latvia 19' (NQ), Slovenia 19' (Q), Croatia 16' (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order: Televoting has 10/12 Qs and 5 podium results.

                                                                            Juries have just 5/12...No song has managed to rank higher than 5th with the Juries. 

What happens next...: In case Austria qualifies to the final, the only ambition they can have is a Top-10 result with Juries. It will be one of these entries that will receive just enough points to qualify and then voters will opt for something better in the Final.

A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: 50/50 to qualify and if that happens, 16th-22nd.

Some More Data: The average discrepancy between the two constituencies in the last four years is 14.3 places...

Austria is juror's newest love. It's not the same with viewers though, having two last places both with 0 points...