Thursday, 15 April 2021

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 1. San Marino

 

1. San Marino

Qualifying Record: 2/10 (1/10 if 50/50 system applied in 14')

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/6 (1/6 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ



San Marino, the country that has the biggest dilemma in case they win the Contest. Where to host Eurovision 2022...Valentina's backyard or Senhit's garden?

They are currently riding the wave, hoping for a second straight qualification and most probably their best result ever! Though we must be honest and say that the bar is not set extremely high.

Senhit is coming back and Adrenalina is an ideal opener for the show. The involvement of Flo Rida in the videoclip and on stage has created some positive vibes among the fans. His presence will increase San Marino's chances for a better placing and a better draw for the Final.

San Marino always depends on Televoting for a good result, and they have nailed that part this year. Their best Jury result on a SF so far is 13th but I reckon they will break that record as well. 

Will qualify because... They couldn't have asked for a better slot. Will be Top-3/5 on Televoting and close/in Top-10 with Juries. 

Will not qualify because...Flo Rida decides to damp them, and the staging is a mess. Many countries decide to sabotage televoting and close their lines during voting. They all happen to be at the same region, so EBU has to go 100% Jury for their result...

Realistic expectations for the Semi: 3rd - 5th



Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Cyprus 19'(Q), Sweden 17' (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order: No song is placed higher than 3rd on Televoting in the 50/50 era. Juries have a second and 2 third places...


What happens next...: One way or the other San Marino will be in the Final. And then depending on draw and the number of bangers qualified, will have a fighting chance to sneak in the Top-10. If in second half Adrenalina would be a great closer for the show. 

A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: 12th-18th



Some More Data: If Serhat made it in the Top-10 back in 2019, why not a Top-5 for Senhit? Jury results are a different story. The hype at least pre-rehearsals is there.











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