Qualifying Record: 7/16
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 3/12
Current Country Streak: 2 Q
Current Running Order Streak: 4 NQ
Estonia is currently running its second most successful streak and hopes to extend it. EBU had a different opinion giving them the second slot and making the mission almost impossible.
The Lucky One is an upgrade from last year and has behind it the magic duo of Kirkorov - Kontopoulos. Will that be enough?
The fact that the team is behind three different entries in the same SF might raise some eyebrows...It will be one of the first things to check Saturday night after the results are published...Will they be any Jury shenanigans?
The running order is a sign that this is considered the weakest of the three.
The chances are slim, but this is not written off yet as it has a few good friends in the SF plus the Kirkorov effect than can boost it to the Final.
History shows though that for Estonia to qualify they must present an excellent song. When they do it, they qualify in style. When they don't have something special, they go home.
With the 50/50 system they ranked 3rd, 5th and 4th when they qualified and all three times they were in Top-3 with Televoting...
Will qualify because...Baltic/Scandi/ex-Soviet allies will provide the necessary 75-85 points and will find the rest from random 1-4 points here and there.
Housewives alarm. Krone did it back in 2019 and had a worse voice.
Will not qualify because... Qualifying from the 2nd slot has become impossible with the current producer's logic.
Kirkorov will look after the other 'children'...
Realistic expectations for the Semi: 10th - 13th
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Iceland 18' (NQ)
Interesting Facts about the Running Order: I mentioned the same thing to Slovenia's post, but it is one of the most impressive facts about the SFs.
The only countries that were able to sneak in the Top-10 in PV from the second slot is Armenia SF1-2015 and Poland SF2-2016 😨 both having the diaspora behind them.
What happens next...: If I were the Estonian delegation and someone brought me a piece of paper saying that you will qualify to the Final and then you will finish last, I would ask where I must sign...
I don't think that we will see Estonia in the final, but in case that happens, avoiding Bottom-5 is the only realistic goal.
A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: NQ with 60-70% probability if it qualifies 17th-23rd.
Some More Data: Estonia has one of the most interesting paradoxes back in 2018.
La Forza ranked 7th with Juries and 3rd in Televoting and then in the Final ranked 6th with Juries!!!! and 9th with Televoting!
This is Eurovision's version of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde.
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