Qualifying Record: 10/11*(9/11 if 50/50 rule is applied in 14'-15')
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/6* (4/6 see above)
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12
Current Country Streak: 1 Q
Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q
Azerbaijan, the country that went a step further when they decided to bring Efendi back for another run, doing the minimum changes possible to recreate the same result as last year.
Mata Hari is one of the many bangers of the year, with some ethno-oriental elements. Cliche's and kitch elements are all over the place making this entry a guilty pleasure. Juries might snob it because of that and then Azerbaijan will be in trouble looking for a Top 4-6 finish in Televoting to qualify.
There a few friends in the SF and Azerbaijan is usually working well with Juries, we just need to see if they are seriously invested in this entry. Azerbaijan has performed better with Juries every single time apart from 2019 that was a draw.
It is a borderline entry and currently I'm leaning towards NQ.
Will qualify because...it is pure fun, the kitchy party song that people will like and could do really well at least in the SF. Has a strong hook.
Will not qualify because...this is not one for the Juries that could easily punish it.
They have already promised to vote Malta (the Juries...)
Quality wise is the second weakest on the second half.
Realistic expectations for the Semi: 9th -12th
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Azerbaijan 16' (Q), Belarus 17' (Q)
Interesting Facts about the Running Order: 14th slot has 8/12 Q but if we count the third last order then the record drops to 7/12. That gets even worse with Televoting with only 5/12 qualifications and that could be the key for a possible Azerbaijani failure. Too many clouds are gathering there.
What happens next...: If they qualify to the final, reaching the left hand side of the board would be the realistic target. This is the wrong year to rely on Juries with an entry like Mata Hari and Public has to choose among many similar and probably better entries.
The allies and some Turkish diaspora are there to guarantee that Bottom-5 is out of the question. We would probably see a repeat of 2014-2017 results.
A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: NQ with a 60-65% probability, if they qualify 14th - 20th
Some More Data: Glory days are gone since 2013 and results are more balanced. Tends to do slightly better with Juries, because of the friendly votes but really struggles with Televoting.
2019 is a good proof of that, where it actually performed worse with PV despite being a clear televoting bait.
It will definitely need PV to qualify and do well and that might not be the case.
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