Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Azerbaijan

 

Run With U - Mamagama

Has the time to end the non-qualification streak come? Azerbaijan is finally sending a competitive entry that might have some appeal to the Public vote.

'Run With U' is an up-tempo entry with some traditional elements that if performed/staged adequately could secure a spot in the Final.

The structural problem that the Azeri NQ entries had was that they were missing a call for action/they were very in the middle of the road. We might have a similar situation this year as well, but the good news for Azerbaijan is that they have their chance to showcase their quality on stage on a head to head battle versus Belgium, performing before them, and San Marino that is performing after them. If they can steal some of the spark of the other two entries, the ticket is theirs.

They are still a borderline entry but now leaning towards the qualification. If they make it to the Final, I do not expect anything ground-breaking but they could secure a mid-table score with the Juries to avoid finishing in the Bottom-5. 

The good news for them is that after 2 non-competitive years they have shown some signs of life in Eurovision.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan qualifying to the Final finishing 9th-10th and then grab 30-40 Jury points from friends and a few Public vote points from some neighbours to finish 19th-21st.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 34.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-55

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 15-40 - Tot: 40-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Azerbaijan hopeless for qualification or have we jumped the gun too fast?

You can hear my thoughts about Azerbaijan in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Azerbaijan

 

First Thoughts:

I have to admit that I do not remember a country being so low-key in Eurovision like Azerbaijan is in the last two years.

I do get the sense that they do not care about Eurovision at all. 

There is no PR, no promo tours and everything is on auto-pilot until they get tired and withdraw.

'Özünlə Apar' is a very weak attempt to create an entry with Azerbaijani traditional music elements present. 

It is not a bad song but it feels like something that was made in a hurry. Its main problem is that there is no audience for this particular entry.

It is very middle on the road without a call for action. I would be more surprised to see Azerbaijan qualifying than finishing last in Semi - Final.

It reminds me of...

Armenia '18 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 25/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001%

Best case scenario:

Qualifying to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 5-35

Final: Js: 10-20 - TV: 10-20- Total: 20-40

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan getting on the first plane back to Baku on Wednesday morning. Not the worst song in the Semi - Final but most probably the one with the smallest target group. 

Would be a worthy fun bet for Last Place in Semi - Final if that market is available somewhere.

You can hear my thoughts about Azerbaijan in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Azerbaijan

 

First Thoughts:

Azerbaijan! The country, the Eurovision myth! The main reason of the voting system changes in Semi - Finals after last year's fiasco.

Not only it was one of the six nations that tried to fix the jury results and exchange points between them, but they were also the first country in history to qualify in the Final without getting a single televote point and of course finishing last in that constituency in their Semi - Final, a record that cannot be broken anymore with a different voting system in place...

It feels like Azerbaijan is throwing a towel this year, sending an entry that is destined to be doomed, unless they have a budget for Sim cards in place...

The only realistic goal for 'Tell me More' is to avoid the last place and that will be a tough battle squeezed between Sweden and Czechia.

Avoiding Bottom-3 in Semi - Final will be mission completed. Qualification though, if it happens, will be one of the biggest surprises of all time.

It reminds me of...

Georgia '21, '22

Televoting Potential: 2/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 18/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001% - 0.001%

Best case scenario:

Avoid Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi-Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

95+% not to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan saving Ireland from the third last place in the last four years...

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 4. Azerbaijan...will the lights fade or shine brighter?

 

Qualifying Record: 11/12*(10/12 if 50/50 rule is applied in 14'-15') 

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/7* (5/7 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/14

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 14. Azerbaijan

 

14. Azerbaijan

Qualifying Record: 10/11*(9/11 if 50/50 rule is applied in 14'-15') 

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/6* (4/6 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q