Everything you need to know about Semi - Final 1, and you were afraid to ask

 

The latest edition of 'Everything you need to know about the Semi Finals, and you were afraid to ask' is here to give you some insight about the numbers and stats regarding the participants.

This post can be used as a reference guide for the participants of Semi - Final 1.

Image: Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU

The stats are focused on historical data of Semi - Final Televoting for the Double Semi - Finals era (2008-2022) and of the Running order under the producers' era (2013-2022).

This is going to be a long post so prepare your coffee/tea/drink and enjoy

1. Norway

Qualifying Record: 11/13 ('08-'22) - 8/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 6.6 ('08-'22) - 6 ('13-'22)

Wins: 2 ('09, '19)

Top-3 Results: 3 (2-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 8th-3rd-1st-8th-4th

Running Order Record: 10/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 9.4

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)

A few words about the play: Norway is one of the Eurovision power houses. Most of the Televoting qualifications (7) were achieved with a Top-5 result. 

They currently hold the second-best qualifying record for the Double Semi - Finals era. Have not failed to qualify in their last 5 attempts.

Opening the Semi-Final could potentially cost a Top-3 finish for Norway but should be near there. There has not been a winner or runner-up yet performing in the opening slot in producers' era...

2. Malta

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 4/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11 ('08-'22) - 11.6 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 18th-18th-10th-2nd-16th

Running Order Record: 2/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 13.3

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 0

A few words about the play: Malta is the country that has elevated the Jury saves to a state of art. Now that the juries are missing, they need to dig deep to save themselves, especially after performing in slot #2.

The last qualifier from slot #2 remains Poland back in Semi - Final 2 in 2016...

3. Serbia

Qualifying Record: 10/12 ('08-'22) - 6/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 7.6 ('08-'22) - 8.3 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 11th-8th-7th-9th-1st

Running Order Record: 6/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 11.9

Running Order Wins: 1

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (1-0-1)

A few words about the play: Serbia performing a second year in a row in slot #3. Last year they won the Semi - Final (tie with Sweden). Can they do the same?

Probably not. Serbia is the definition of a borderline qualifier that usually makes it to the Final. 

4/6 qualifications have happened in the last 7 Semi-Finals which is good news. Producers' have slightly changed their approach altering strong with not so strong entries to balance things a bit.

4. Latvia

Qualifying Record: 3/14 ('08-'22) - 1/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 13.9 ('08-'22) - 13.2 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 17th-15th-16th-16th-15th

Running Order Record: 8/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 10.9

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-1-3)

A few words about the play: The country that has struggled the most from the ones participating this year. Avoiding the last place would be their best result in the last 7 years!

The problem is that their entry is jury-based, and the running order does not help either.

5. Portugal

Qualifying Record: 7/11 ('08-'22) - 4/6 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.1 ('08-'22) - 7.3 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 1st-x-12th-5th-6th

Running Order Record: 12/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.8

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-1-3)

A few words about the play: #5 is the first strong slot for televoting friendly entries with 2 wins and 6 podium results in the producers' era. 

Portugal has a decent record and the combination of the two could secure the qualification.

The paradox is that the last five non qualifications out of the six in total since 2013 have happened in the last 5 Semi - Finals, currently the longest standing non qualification streak...

6. Ireland

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 3/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.4 ('08-'22) - 11.9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 0 

Recent Form ('17-'22): 12th-6th-17th-15th-11th

Running Order Record: 11/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 3 (2-1-0)

A few words about the play: Not much to say here. Ireland has been struggling a lot in the last two decades. It's one of the three countries that have not had a Top-3 result with the Televoters in the Double Semi - Finals era and the one with the worst best result of all 31 participants. 

Has finished 6th three times and that is it.

The running order per se has a decent record but like #5, it is used lately as a filler. Had not been Ukraine last year performing in #6 to break the NQ streak, it would be similar to #5, with 4 non qualifications in the last 5 Semi - Finals.

7. Croatia

Qualifying Record: 5/12 ('08-'22) - 4/ 7('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11 ('08-'22) - 10.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 0

Recent Form ('17-'22): 5th-17th-12th-9th-12th

Running Order Record: 10/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.2

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-3-1)

A few words about the play: The other country in the Semi - Final after Ireland with no Top-3 result in Televoting since '08. 

The nature of the song and the running order suggest that Croatia will make it this year. Most of the qualifications in this slot have happened with a Top-5 result. Not suggesting that Croatia will have one, but the slot will help increase the qualifying chances a bit.

Even though #7 has no win so far, it has a better ranking average than slots #5 and #6 that have 2 wins each.

8. Switzerland

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.1 ('08-'22) - 10.1 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 10th-15th-3rd-3rd-16th

Running Order Record: 11/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 9.5

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

A few words about the play: Switzerland was able to turn the ship around since 2019. The problem is that apart from 2019, all the other entries were relying on the Juries for a good result and the trend continues this year.

Switzerland might struggle being sandwiched between the chaos of Croatia and the Israeli Unicorn. This is the reason I currently have Switzerland as a borderline qualifier.

Apart from Iceland's second place in 2021 from that slot, all other qualifications finished 6th-10th. Something to keep in mind. 

9. Israel

Qualifying Record: 7/12 ('08-'22) - 4/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 10 ('08-'22) - 9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 4th-4th-x-5th-13th

Running Order Record: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 6.3

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-3-1)

A few words about the play: Israel got a similar treatment to Norway, being the first up tempo entry of the half that it was drawn. 

What if I told you that Israel's only Top-3 result since '08 is not Netta in 2018 (4th) but 'Golden Boy' back in 2015?

Israel is the only Eurovision Winner that finished outside Top-3 with a constituency in a Semi - Final.

Slot #9 has the best qualifying record and ranking average, but you need to remember that most of these times was used as the pimp slot of the first half. 

10. Moldova

Qualifying Record: 8/14 ('08-'22) - 4/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.6 ('08-'22) - 8.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 3 (0-3-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 2nd-2nd-13th-4th-2nd

Running Order Record: 8/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 10.2

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)

A few words about the play: Moldova has a very impressive recent record with the Televoters, having finished 2nd three times in the last five years! 

This is a good omen for Pasha unlike the performing slot which is among the worse of the second half and in total. If the current streak of a NQ followed by a Q continues, Moldova should make it.

If there were thoughts about Moldova making it to the Top-3, the running order hints that this will not be an easy task.

11. Sweden

Qualifying Record: 10/12 ('08-'22) - 7/7 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 5 ('08-'22) - 4.4 ('13-'22)

Wins: 4

Top-3 Results: 5 (4-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 4th-6th-6th-10th-1st

Running Order Record: 6/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 11.3

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 0

A few words about the play: An obvious attempt from the producers to balance the running order giving some room for Sweden to breathe between Israel and Finland. 

The country with the most Semi - Final wins (4) since '08 and we are talking about Televoting only. Two of them have brought the trophy back home. 'Tattoo' is currently the second favourite in the Semi - Final and it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Sweden needs to finish 4th or higher to become the best performance from slot #11. No win, no Top-3 and interestingly no last place either has come from here so far.

12. Azerbaijan

Qualifying Record: 9/13 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 7.2 ('08-'22) - 9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 4 (0-3-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 8th-12th-5th-6t-18th

Running Order Record: 13/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.7

Running Order Wins: 1

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (1-3-0)

A few words about the play: The sim cards era is now far away from Azerbaijan and EBU has ditched the latest Azeri hobby of doing shenanigans with the Juries as well. 

Azerbaijan was the first and probably the last country for some time that qualified to the Final getting 0 Televoting points and of course finishing last with Televoters last year.

Azerbaijan is struggling with Televoting since 2013 and they need to pull a miracle to make it this year, especially coming after Sweden.

The slot is ideal for a televote driven entry that unfortunately Azerbaijan is not.

13. Czechia

Qualifying Record: 4/9 ('08-'22) - 4/7 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.6 ('08-'22) - 9.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 18th-2nd-6th-17th-3rd

Running Order Record: 12/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.8

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (2-0-0)

A few words about the play: It is truly amazing what Czechia does with its entries. They are either jury-driven or televote-driven but never balanced. My guess is that we have another Televote-driven entry that will sail to the Final. 

Most of the qualifications from #13 finished 4th-6th and this is where Czechia will land as well.

14. Netherlands

Qualifying Record: 6/13 ('08-'22) - 6/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 10.6 ('08-'22) - 7.5 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 9th-12th-2nd-x-7th

Running Order Record: 13/18 / Second Last: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6 / Second Last: 6.7

Running Order Wins: 3 / Second Last: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-0-1) / Second Last: 3 (2-0-1)

A few words about the play: Netherlands is currently a borderline entry in terms of its qualification. In every Semi - Final since 2014 there was an entry that was saved by the Juries and the bell is ringing either for Switzerland or Netherlands. 

The good thing for Netherlands is the penultimate slot that has a 16/18 qualifications record. Many of these qualifications were ranked 6th-10th and that is also good news meaning that they got the boost they needed to qualify. 

Despite the underwhelming rehearsals, I still believe that Netherlands has a chance based on statistical facts.

15. Finland

Qualifying Record: 9/14 ('08-'22) - 7/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 9.2 ('08-'22) - 9.2 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 10th-7th-17th-1st-6th

Running Order Record: 12/18 /  Last: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.1 / Last: 4.9

Running Order Wins: 3 / Last: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-1-0) / Last: 8 (2-2-4)

A few words about the play: Finland is aiming for its second Semi - Final Televoting win in the last 3 years. There is some heavy competition in the Semi - Final and remains to be seen if they can get their momentum going in the Final as well.

Finland could not have asked for a better draw with Pimp Slot securing a podium finish in half of the qualifications and an impressive 14/18 Top-5 results!

Tomorrow I will be posting Semi - Final 2 and you can also the Pre-Rehearsals Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1 here and for Semi - Final 2 here plus some general statistics about all 31 participants and the running order here.

Eurovision 2023: Semi - Final 2: Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 

If someone asked you to compare this year's Semi -Finals' quality with a football team, Semi - Final 1 would have been Manchester City/ Real Madrid, Semi - Final 2 would have been Sheriff Tiraspol/ Maccabi Haifa...

Odds wise, there is a possibility to have just a Top-10 entry from this Semi to the Final and that sums it up.

Even to that poor field however there are some clear favourites to proceed and a few entries that do not stand a chance.

Before starting the rankings, a reminder that you can find the post for Semi - Final 1 here and the post for the winning paths of the odds' leaders here. You can also click on each country's name for the first thoughts.

1. Armenia

What I think it will happen: Still flying under the radar, missing all pre-parties, and having just a few bits of information about the presentation. I am not sold in Austria, and I do think that Armenia has more staging potential. The early draw is a disadvantage as well, but I do think that Armenia is a locked Top-3 in Semi- Final and could bring a similar result to Russia '15, Australia '16, Belgium '17.

If I had to choose a country out of the current Top-5 that could end up there in the Final, Armenia is my pick easily. 

To win Semi @13 and be Top-3 in the Semi @ 1.81 both have some value, especially the second one compared to Austria's odds for the win.

Disclaimer: I do have Armenia already in my book in both markets, plus Winner/Top-4/Top-5/Top-10 in the Final

I would be shocked if: Does not finish in Top-3

2. Australia

What I think it will happen: Having the Pimp slot and an entry that could set the stage on fire. It is the typical Semi - Final 2 pimp slot entry that does finish in Top-3 and then used as an opener for the Final.

Australia does not have a great Televoting appeal in the Contest but has managed to win a Semi - Final twice ('16, '19) and finished second last year, based on its jury appeal though.

I struggle to find a way that 'Promise' finishes lower than Top-4. Another one that goes under the radar and let's not forget that Australia does have some jury appeal that could become handy in the Final.

I would be shocked if: Australia finishes 5th or worse.

3. Cyprus

What I think it will happen: Cyprus is expected to sail through to the Final and it has enough allies in the Semi - Final to do it being part of the Top-3. The entry that starts with a secured threshold of 35-40 points and could get many more. Not sure about its fate in the Final but this Semi is a different beast.

I would be shocked if: Cyprus is not in Top-6.

4. Slovenia

What I think it will happen: Another certain qualifier that depending on the circumstances could land anywhere between 2nd and 6th. Joker Out will also have the chance to win the crowd and secure their spot in the Final. 

Semi Final Top-3 @ 3.20 has value.

I would be shocked if: Slovenia does not qualify.

5. Austria

What I think it will happen: The favourite to win the Semi - Final and I have it 5th? Well...I do like the song in general but there are many red flags there to back it at such a short price, currently @ 1.63.

I am aware that there are no Juries in the Semi - Final but I do struggle to find a decent staging or choreography for this one and not sure how many viewers will relate to or understand the message of the song. 

I think that WTHIE will be the biggest victim of the video-clip effect for 2023 and will under-achieve spectacularly.

I was keeping an open mind for this one with the Eurojury results coming in in case I missed something but if the jurors are not impressed by its video-clip which is its selling point then they are heading for a car crash. 

Top-10 in the Final is not secured in my opinion.

I would be shocked if: Austria wins the Semi - Final.

6. Lithuania

What I think it will happen: I might have underestimated Lithuania at the beginning of the season. 'Stay' is cheesy and generic but there is some kind of serenity that the song brings, the running order and some friends will be enough to secure a place in the Final and there they will meet more friends and diaspora...

A fun bet for the Top-3 in Semi - Final @ 5 and for the Semi - Final Win @ 100 is acceptable.

I would be shocked if: Lithuania fails to qualify.

7. Belgium

What I think it will happen: Another grower during the national finals' season. Belgium is not my cup of tea, and I was harsh when I shared my first thoughts but even back then I have mentioned that the qualification is not out of question. 

Three months after and Belgium is heading to the Final and if you consider Eurojury as a reliable metric, Belgium could be an outsider for the Top-15.

I would be shocked if: Belgium wins the Semi - Final or finishes in Bottom-3.

8. Poland

What I think it will happen: The Top-7 has secured a spot in the Final and Poland is the first entry on my list that could end up the other way around.

Blanka is the guilty pleasure of this year, and it has the Polish diaspora behind it. This will be the key for its success. We need to see the staging to have a better idea, but Poland and Televoting diaspora is the perfect mix.

I would be shocked if: Poland finishes in Top-3.

9. Greece

What I think it will happen: Greece is the fourth entry after Cyprus, Poland and Lithuania that has a head start because of their allies and diaspora. Quality wise is the weakest Greek entry for a while but could still make it to the Final. Failing to qualify would not be a surprise.

I would be shocked if: Greece is placed in Top-5.

10. Georgia

What I think it will happen: Georgia is in trouble and the main reason is the absence of an actual song or its strange structure. It is made to highlight Iru's vocal abilities but there is nothing more than that.

An epic staging could hide some of its weaknesses but if they fail to create one, Georgia will continue the long streak of non-qualifications. 

Lay has the best value of all non-qualification odds in both Semis for 2023.

I would be shocked if: Georgia is near Top-5.

11. Estonia

What I think it will happen: Estonia's qualification will be a coin toss. Personally, I am leaning on the non-qualification side purely because, in every Semi - Final since 2014, there is at least one entry that is saved by Juries and Estonia is the one that fits that criterion. 

Without Juries might be the easy target and despite its quality it might fail to qualify. It will be easier in the Final if it gets there having the Jury boost.

I would be shocked if: Estonia finishes in Bottom-3.

12. Denmark

What I think it will happen: The last country in my list with a chance to qualify but the odds against them. The early slot and Denmark's bad record with similar vanilla songs in recent history suggest that qualifying might be out of reach. They will fight with Greece and Georgia for the last qualifying spot.

Lay @1.78 has value.

I would be shocked if: Denmark finishes higher than 9th.

13. Iceland

What I think it will happen: A generic repetitive song that lacks, at least in national final, any form of choreography that could help it and lift its status.

'Power' ironically is not powerful enough to find an audience that could vote massively for it and send it to the Final.

I would be shocked if: Iceland qualifies finsihing higher than 10th.

14. Albania

What I think it will happen: Albania is missing most of its allies and 'Duje' is not the type of entry that will force the Televoters to pick up the phone. Maybe it is time for Albania to try a different recipe.

I would be shocked if: Albania qualifies.

15. Romania

What I think it will happen: Could Romania do it again and qualify solely getting points from its diaspora? The answer is no.

Anything better than Bottom-3 will be tremendous success.

I would be shocked if: Romania qualifies.

16. San Marino

What I think it will happen: If there was a bet for last place in Semi - Finals, San Marino would have been money in the bank.

I would be shocked if: San Marino will not finish last.

And this is a wrap. I have 7 certain qualifiers: Armenia, Australia, Cyprus, Slovenia, Austria, Lithuania, and Belgium.

Poland, Greece, Georgia, Estonia, and Denmark will battle for the remaining 3 positions. 

Of course, rehearsals are on the way and many things could change but I highly doubt that there could be another country to join the battle and make it to the Final.

I will also post my book for the season in the next couple of days which I will be updating until the end of the Grand Final. 

For the following week, the plan is to post some stats for the Semi - Finals and then of course the coverage of the rehearsals and the jury shows here and in twitter.

Stay tunned...

Eurovision 2023: Semi - Final 1: Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 What's another year? Rehearsals will begin in a few days, and it is time for the Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings. 

Last year I had 9/10 correct qualifiers for both Semi-Finals in my pre-rehearsals that turned to 8/10 and 7/10 when the time for the actual prediction came so you better bookmark these posts.

Semi - Final 1 is the shortest one since 2014 with just 15 participants and at the same time one of the fullest in terms of quality.

Three of the Top-4 favourites are performing here and if we believe the current odds, 4 or 5 entries will make it to the Top-10, with the other 4 coming from the direct qualifiers and 1 or 2 from Semi - Final 2.

There is a big chance that Finland will win the Semi-Final because of the 100% Televoting scoring system and then have a reverse in Grand Final with Sweden winning the Contest.

It has happened in the past, so we need to be open-minded. Clicking on each country's name, you will be able to read my first thoughts for each one.

So here we go...

1. Finland

What I think it will happen: Performing in the Pimp Slot will give a massive boost to Finland that is also the big favourite to win Televoting in the Final. The last Pimp Slot entry that won Televoting in a Semi - Final was 'Fuego' back in 2018 when 'Toy' finished just 4th! with the televoters but managed to win the contest. Maybe that is an omen for Sweden.

Finland's win is currently @1.59 which I find very short, but this is the hot favourite.

I would be shocked if: Finland does not finish in Top-2.

2. Sweden

What I think it will happen: Loreen is the one to beat and she will set the tone from the Semi - Final. For those thinking that Sweden just waits for Saturday 13th May to be coronated as Eurovision winner, the Semi - Final win @ 3.60 is the only Swedish odd this year that has an actual value. Cannot see a way Sweden will fail to be in the Top-2. If that happens - we will find out after the Grand Final - then winning the contest will be out of question.

I would be shocked if: Sweden is out of the Top-2.

3. Israel

What I think it will happen: One of the biggest X-factors so far for the year. The one though with the most potential. Noa Kirel has star quality and Israel does know how to stage a song. Winning the Semi - Final @ 70 has some excellent value, and the same goes for finishing in Top-3 @ 2.4.

It has a better running order than Norway (#9 has 4 podium finishes including 2 wins since 2014 while #1 has only 2 third places), no juries are involved, and the Nordics will have to split the high scores among themselves leaving someone short.

I would be shocked if: Israel does not deliver in staging and fails to finish in Top-4.

4. Norway

What I think it will happen: It is very possible for Norway to finish in the same position in the Final as well. Eurojury results so far imply that Norway could be a potential Top-5 with Juries and the same could happen with Televoting as well. Opening the Semi - Final might be tough in terms of getting a Top-3 and a good draw in the Final. Will fight with Israel and Czechia for the third spot though.

I would be shocked if: Norway fails to finish in Top-5.

5. Czechia

What I think it will happen: Czechia has lost the momentum it gained in early February, that now feels like ages ago. However, Vesna have improved a lot during the pre-parties and if the staging offers a part of the epicness of the video clip, then Czechia could be back in the Top-10 discussion. It will get some support from the Ukrainian diaspora/supporters as well, we still do not know in what extent.

I would be shocked if: Czechia does not qualify easily.

6. Croatia

What I think it will happen: Croatia is the biggest winner of the rule change. They have taken the right decision to go all-in or go home. They might struggle a bit and finish in a lower position but missing the Final is not a very probable scenario. There it will be a different story but for sure they will not leave the Contest unnoticed.

I would be shocked if: They fail to qualify placed 12th or worse.

7. Moldova

What I think it will happen: I must admit that I cannot read this entry so far. I am aware of its Televoting potential; however, I do find it extremely repetitive and very lazy. It gives me France '22 vibes and it is sandwiched between Israel and Sweden and could be completely forgotten when people start to vote. Had it as a borderline non qualifier but now in my Top-10 but I do find its qualifying odds @ 1.11 extremely short.

I would be shocked if: Moldova finishes in Top-3 or Bottom-3.

8. Serbia

What I think it will happen: We are officially entering in the grey area. Serbia is the definition of a borderline qualifier, always near the very last qualifying spot. The tradition will continue this year as well. The entry has lots of potential and needs to be better than in the national final but even that might be enough.

I would be shocked if: Serbia could enter Top-2.

9. Portugal

What I think it will happen: Another entry that could go both ways. I have it among the qualifiers just because it does have a Televoting appeal. Will not be surprised though if it fails to qualify. One to watch in rehearsals not per se but to see if it sits down well with the entries next to it.

I would be shocked if: Portugal enters Top-5 or finishes in Bottom-3.

10. Switzerland

What I think it will happen:  A potential Top-5 with the Juries in Grand Final which might not make it there. Every Semi - Final since 2014 has at least one entry that was saved by the jurors and qualified to the Final. Switzerland might pay the price for the rule change, but I do think it has enough quality to make it and send Netherlands to the dark side. If Iceland made it last year, why not Switzerland?

I would be shocked if: Switzerland makes it to the Top-3.

11. Netherlands

What I think it will happen: The song feels like something is missing and the same could be said about the vocal abilities and chemistry of the duo, at least in the pre-parties. AVROTROS seems to be in panic and these are not good signs. They have time to turn it around, but I highly doubt it.

I would be shocked if: They finish 8th or higher.

12. Latvia

What I think it will happen: Latvia is the last entry that does have a decent chance to qualify in the Final. It will be a struggle though because they need to put Serbia, Netherlands, Switzerland and or Portugal behind them. An introvert song that might find an audience to vote for it.

I would be shocked if: Anything better than 10th it will be a surprise.

13. Malta

What I think it will happen: Malta will try to avoid the last place and it has a decent chance to make it. Qualifying to the Final is out of reach in my opinion.

I would be shocked if: Malta makes it to the Final.

14. Ireland 

What I think it will happen: Avoiding the last place is the only goal.

I would be shocked if: Ireland makes it to the Final.

15. Azerbaijan

What I think it will happen: Instant karma for Azerbaijan which was the main reason that the voting rule changed.

I would be shocked if: They finish higher than Bottom-3.

And that concludes my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1. 

There is a group of 6 certain qualifiers: Finland, Sweden, Israel, Norway, Czechia, Croatia followed by a group of 6 countries that fight for the 4 remaining tickets: Moldova, Serbia, Portugal, Switzerland, Netherlands, Latvia.

I will be posting my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 2 in the next few days and will do the same with my betting book as well. You might find the first bet of the season as well there...

Rehearsals start in a few days, and it will be interesting to see how the new reality will look like.

Eurovision 2022: Semi Final 2: First thoughts and facts

 

Time to check the second final which could be named the Underdogs SF.

Half of the countries participating (9) have a negative qualifying record in the 50/50 era ('16-'21). 

Three of them will be performing on the first half: Finland, San Marino and Georgia. 

San Marino and Finland have a momentum recently so the unlucky one here is Georgia that has four unsuccessful attempts to qualify to the Final.

The second half will be a battlefield including six countries with a negative qualifying record: Poland, Romania, North Macedonia, Ireland, Montenegro and  Estonia.

This will be interesting...

Let's check now the current streaks and averages

Current Qualification Streak

1. Sweden 10 Qs

2. Cyprus 6 Qs

3. Israel 5 Qs

4. Serbia 3 Qs

5. Azerbaijan 2 Qs

6. San Marino 2 Qs

7. Malta 2 Qs

8. Belgium 1 Q

9. Finland 1 Q

10. Australia 1 NQ

11. North Macedonia 1 NQ

12. Czechia 1 NQ

13. Estonia 1 NQ

14. Ireland 2 NQs

15. Romania 3 NQs

16. Poland 3 NQs

17. Georgia 4 NQS

18. Montenegro 4 NQs

Qualification Record in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Cyprus 5/5

2. Sweden - Israel 4/4

4. Albania - Serbia - Azerbaijan 4/5

7. Malta - Czechia - Belgium 3/5

10. Finland - San Marino - Poland - Estonia 2/5

14. Romania 1/4

15. Georgia - North Macedonia - Ireland 1/5

18. Montenegro 0/4

This is a SF that will have plenty of betting opportunities. The SF looks so weak in paper that will be equally exciting with SF1. Remember last year when we thought that the first SF was the strong one and we ended with seven songs from SF2 finishing on the left hand side of the scoreboard.

Average Total Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Sweden 3.8

2. Israel 4

3. Australia 5.2

4. Cyprus 6

5. Azerbaijan 7.6

6. Malta 8.2

7. Belgium 8.2

8. Czechia 8.4

9. Serbia 9

10. Romania 10.5

11. Estonia 10.8

12. Poland 10.8

13. Finland 11.8

14. North Macedonia 12.2

15. San Marino 13

16. Georgia 13.6

17. Ireland 13.6 

18. Montenegro 15.3

Average Jury Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Sweden 3

2. Israel 3.8

3. Malta 3.8

4. Australia 4.6

5. Czechia 6

6. Cyprus 6.8

7. Azerbaijan 7.6

8. Belgium 8.6

9. Serbia 9

10. Romania 10.8

11. North Macedonia 12

12. Finland 12.2

13. Estonia 12.2

14. Georgia 12.8

15. Poland 13.2

16. Montenegro 13.3

17. San Marino 13.4

18. Ireland 13.8

Average Televoting Ranking  in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Cyprus 5.8

2. Sweden 6.5

3. Israel 7.3

4. Azerbaijan 7.6

5. Australia 8

6. Estonia 8

7. Poland 8.2

8. Serbia 9

9. Belgium 9.6

10. Finland 10

11. Romania 10.5

12. Czechia 11

13. Malta 11.4

14. San Marino 11.8

15. North Macedonia 11.8

16. Ireland 12.8

17. Georgia 13.6

18. Montenegro 14.5

Checking the splits, it is obvious that this is a juries-oriented SF. Malta and North Macedonia that were Jury winners in their SFs last year and '19, rank 13th and 15th in Televoting. 

Australia that has won its SF twice ('16-'19) ranks just fifth as well.

History is not very indicative of what will happen this year, but stats last year got right 8/10 in SF1 and 6/10 in SF2.

The most interesting part of the national finals season is here with new songs revealed every other day from now on. 

The One That Will Drive The Punters Mad...

 

The first Semi Final is already history! No shocker qualifiers or non-qualifiers there! 

Romania was heading for a car crash and Televoting did not save them. 

Croatia was the biggest surprise, thought it failed to lift off even though it started the SF being ahead of Israel and Azerbaijan. 

Regarding Israel, that was the Jury save of the Semi and Azerbaijan must have sailed with Televoting. 

But we are here to check the second Semi Final so let's move on.

The qualifying odds suggest that we have nine certain qualifiers, a 50/50 entry, two outsiders and five hopeless entries. Will be it be that easy? I beg to differ...

1. Iceland (+1)

Juries: 2

Televoting: 1

Estimated Points: 260-305

The contest has already finished for Dadi and Gagnamanid before it has even started. A positive covid test and the dream is over. Will that affect their chances? Probably on Saturday, but I do expect some sympathy votes going their way. 

Winning the SF @.5.50-6.00 has some value if you favour the sympathy vote scenario.

2. Switzerland (-1)

Juries: 1

Televoting: 3

Estimated Points: 245-275

Tough week for Switzerland that came back on track after the Jury show. They are back in Top-4 and Gjon's can definitely with the Jury in this SF. He needs it for a good running order in the Final.

Price too short for the SF Win or Top-3

3. Greece (+3)

Juries: 4

Televoting: 4

Estimated Points: 190-220

Stefania is carrying this song and she has lots of charisma. Not sure if it can make it to the Top-10 in the Final but is sailing there. 

4. San Marino (+1)

Juries: 8

Televoting: 2

Estimated Points: 180-210

FloRida is in RotterDam and Adrenalina is high! This is a certain qualifier and a Top-3 finishing in the SF could be within reach. Currently is @ 3.85 and it has some value.

5. Bulgaria (-2)

Juries: 3

Televoting: 7

Estimated Points: 160-190

The biggest enigma of this SF. Beautiful staging and vocals from Victoria, it is failing on metrics so far. Qualifying won't be a concern and it remains to be seen if this one will be along the contenders, or it will start drifting as of tonight.

6. Finland (-2)

Juries: 7

Televoting: 5

Estimated Points: 155-175

Great running order, has its crowd and is safe as well. There is no value in any of the available bets though.

7. Serbia (+2)

Juries: 9

Televoting: 6

Estimated Points: 120-145

Looking now at the Q price of this one (1.70) just before the rehearsals started and the current one (1.26) and you can see the value that was hidden there. NQ now would be a shock.

8. Portugal (+3)

Juries: 6

Televoting: 12

Estimated Points: 105-125

The biggest improvement of this SF. Great staging, jury friendly and it looks like it's sailing to the Final. 

For those of you who find the song very boring or dated, not to qualify is @ 4.50 and given Portugal's record there is some value there. Just two ago Sweden's NQ was @4 and Sweden had 10/11 Qs when Portugal has 4/13...

9. Austria (-1)

Juries: 5

Televoting: 13

Estimated Points: 105-125

Portugal has taken some of its jury glory, but Austria has a nice simple staging and just before the amateurish Polish entry and Moldova's madness it stands a chance. There is only one case of a country that failed to qualify to the Final, being Top-5 with Juries (Malta) and that makes Austria's odds look attractive.

This one was already tipped @ 2.30 before rehearsals started.

10. Denmark (+3)

Juries: 11

Televoting: 8

Estimated Points: 100-125

Most people have this one written off but...Having the Pimp slot entry @2.50-3.00 is value in the long term. 

Is it amateurish? Yes! 

Is it a bit cheesy? Yes!

But they are having fun on the stage, and they manage to create that 80's-euro pop vibe. This is the year that people need happiness and Denmark has the package.

11. Albania (+3)

Juries: 10

Televoting: 11

Estimated Points: 85-105

Odds suggest that Albania will be among the 10 qualifiers. This is a borderline for me, and I do have a theory for it. Gjon's that represents Switzerland is of Albanian origin and I do have a suspicion that the Albanian diaspora will vote for him. Anxhela was born in Albania but comes from the Greek minority there. 

I'm not trying to create a diplomatic incident or anything, but Gjon's is considered the unofficial Albanian representative.

Not touching this one, but in my opinion, there is some value in NQ.

12. Moldova (-5)

Juries: 13

Televoting: 10

Estimated Points: 75-95

If the producer was any other person in the world, Moldova would be a certain non-qualifier, but we are talking about Kirkorov, and he has the power to move things. They tried to play it safe for the Juries where Natalia failed to deliver and there is not much going on for the viewers. 

Currently Q is @2.00-2.25. I might reconsider and place a bet on this one tonight during the SF. 

13. Czechia (-3)

Juries: 14

Televoting: 9

Estimated Points: 75-95

I had high hopes for this one, but Benny didn't seem to bother much. I still believe that it will be Top-10 with Televoters but Juries must have buried it. 

There is a huge discrepancy between exchange market and bookies for its Q odds (5.60 vs 3.75). Will be watching the public reactions in social media for this and maybe place a live bet (I strongly recommend checking tellystats, a social media tracker that provides particularly useful information during the live shows)

14. Estonia (-2)

Juries: 12

Televoting: 15

Estimated Points: 50-75

And we are now entering officially to no man's land. The running order of this one has been the decisive factor. Had it been in the second half or slightly later, it would have a chance. Coming after San Marino does not help at all.

There is no value in the NQ odds.

15. Latvia (-)

Juries: 16

Televoting: 14

Estimated Points: 35-55

Samanta is living her dream and is on stage. She kept to herself and went all the way. Can that translate to a qualification? I'm afraid that no.

Last place in SF is @ 3.70 but she has her fans, and she can get some televoting love.

16. Georgia (-)

Juries: 15

Televoting: 17

Estimated Points: 35-55

This song deserves better, but Eurovision is not the correct platform for Tornike and his style. He came to do his thing which is admirable, but he does not connect with the audience or the juries. 

Finishing last @ 2.50 is too short for me.

17. Poland (-)

Juries: 17

Televoting: 16

Estimated Points: 25-45

There is a song every few years that I can't wait to see during the SF just to make sure that this is the last time I will be listening to it ever. This is the one for 2021!

Last place is @ 2.40 currently but there is no value either just in case a part of Polish diaspora decides to vote for it. 

Betting Time

I will start with what happened in SF1. 

These were my bets

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 ( 3.68) - 20 units - Open

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open

Units played: 200

Units returned: 191

Open Units: 25

These 191 units will be added to the 600 units for the Final as there is no reason to add them to my bets today.

For SF2 I have already tipped

Denmark Q - 2.40 - 25 units

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

Austria Q - 2.30 - 50 units

meaning that I have 100 units left. 

I am topping up Denmark Q - 2.50 with an extra 25 units and the new total will be 

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units

I will do the same with Austria adding Austria Q - 1.83 - 50 units and this is the main bet for the day

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units

Czechia stays the same 

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

And finally my last 25 units will go the other value bet that I have mentioned 

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units

Portugal and Denmark have long term value. I am happy to lose them both, knowing though that the odds were both on my side.

Austria is my main bet and has many similarities with Belgium. Quality is always recognized in this contest.

So my book for SF2 looks like this

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units

New Total: 0

Open Units: 200

Good luck with your bets tonight!

 Stay tuned in Twitter  for any live bets

We Got Game!

 

Two years of wait are finally ending tonight! The tougher SF of this year is ready to start, and the Market seems like it has made up its mind.

There are eight certain qualifiers (1.01-1.32), an almost certain (1.65), three nots (2.10-2.22) and four no hopers.

In the past 12 SFs the market always predicted correct 7-9 qualifiers (7x2, 8x3, 9x7). 

Here is my final Power Ranking for the Semi. In parenthesis you will find the change from the pre rehearsal one.

1. Malta (-)

Juries: 1

Televoting: 1

Estimated Points: 300-360

The clear favourite. Had improved after every rehearsal. Is among the contenders for Saturday. Anything less than a landslide victory in the SF will be a surprise.

The win in SF @1.57-1.67 is fair but I don't find any value.

2. Lithuania (-)

Juries: 4

Televoting: 2

Estimated Points: 225-260

Nothing changed here either. Lithuania is a great show opener and could be in the Top-10 in the Final with a decent running order.

A Top-3 finish in the SF @ 2.84 hides some value.

3. Ukraine (+3)

Juries: 2

Televoting: 4

Estimated Points: 220-250

Was never in doubt that Ukraine would stage its song in the best possible way or that there would ever be a possibility to non-qualify. It's sailing to the final and is another candidate for a Top-10 finish.

Top-3 in the SF @ 1.68 is too short for my likings.

4. Cyprus (-1)

Juries: 7

Televoting: 3

Estimated Points: 190-215

Staging is great and this is sailing to the Final. I am still not convinced about Elena's vocal ability, and I reckon the Market has overreacted to this one. Is currently the fifth favourite to win. It has Top-10 potential, but I don't consider it a done deal yet.

Lay the Top-3 @ 1.37 (approx. 3.70) is a fair bet.

5. Russia (-)

Juries: 5

Televoting: 5

Estimated Points: 165-195

This is my dark horse (biased alert), and the staging is impressive. Just ten days ago Q was paying 1.37, the definition of a value bet. 

It has potential do well. Had it been in the second half, Top-3 would be a certainty.

6. Belgium (+3)

Juries: 3

Televoting: 9

Estimated Points: 160-185

Quality is there and in a SF with all these bangers, Belgium looks like an oasis of calmness. Juries will love it and Hooverphonic have the brand name to guarantee some PV as well.

Finishing Top-3 in the SF @ 16 is a fun bet, considering how often a surprise song sneaks in the Top-3 of a SF.

7. Norway (-)

Juries: 8

Televoting: 6

Estimated Points: 130-160

Norway is still a mystery for me. I will be checking its metrics during the SF for any signs of flopping. Will people understand the concept? To be seen...

8. Sweden (-)

Juries: 6

Televoting: 9

Estimated Points: 130-160

There are still people that believe that Sweden might be a shocker non qualifier.  I have also laid it @ 8.00 and yes there was some value there. Currently Sweden non qualification pays 4 times your money and any value is now lost. 

It's not my cup of tea as a song but is definitely stronger than a bunch of other entries that follow.

9. Croatia (+1)

Juries: 9

Televoting: 7

Estimated Points: 120-150

Croatia looks like to be the last secured spot for the Final. Staging is great for Televoting and there are no reasons for the jurors to punish it. There is no value at its current Q price (1.28-1.35)

For those who don't like the song NQ is @ 3.50 and there could be some value there, but this is not me.

And now the headache starts. There is a group of three countries that will be very very close fighting for the last ticket. Wouldn't be surprised if any of the three makes it to the Final.

10. Romania (-6)

Juries: 13

Televoting: 10

Estimated Points: 75-95

I know that Romania will struggle with Juries. Yesterday they had to perform a second time because of technical difficulties. But...the song has an actual message and has appeal to the younger audience. 

Apart from that, we had many cases in the past where shaky vocalists have qualified managing a good result with the Juries. I'm not tipping it because it will be very marginal.

11. Israel (-)

Juries: 11

Televoting: 12

Estimated Points: 75-95

Israel failed to reproduce the videoclip concept on stage and is currently walking on thin ice. Yesterday, before the dress rehearsal, the Q price was 1.70-1.75. This morning is @ 2.20-2.30. 

12. Azerbaijan (-)

Juries: 12

Televoting: 11

Estimated Points: 75-95

Mata Hari is the weakest of all the marginal entries. She did perform better than Romania and Israel with the Juries, but the staging looks empty and the choreography uninspired. And let's face it! There is not much of a song there. It has an audience though and if Romania flops with Televoting, this is the one to qualify.

I have already tipped it as NQ @ 3.25 and currently is @ 2.37. There is still value there for a 50/50 entry.

13. Australia (+2)

Juries: 10

Televoting: 13

Estimated Points: 70-80

The mystery of the night. Can fans save this one? Montaigne is not in Rotterdam and the performance is live on tape. It looked better than someone would expect but is clear that she is not in stage. Will people give her some sympathy votes? 

Juries will be there to help as they always do with Australia, but I think it won't be enough.

14. Slovenia (-)

Juries: 14

Televoting: 15

Estimated Points: 40-55

Running order, staging did not do any favours to Slovenia. Producers proved to be right placing this one second in the running order. She needed some backing singers to recreate the gospel feeling of the song. 

In a better running order, I would be tempted to back her Q @5.00 but now it feels like throwing money in the air.

15. Ireland (-2)

Juries: 16

Televoting: 14

Estimated Points: 30-50

Another missed opportunity for Ireland. A shaky vocalist that fails to deliver live, plus an overly complicated staging. Lesley needs a map on stage to follow all the steps of the choreography. 

Finishing last in the SF is currently @ 3.10. I personally got some @ 5.30. 

16. North Macedonia (-)

Juries: 15

Televoting: 16

Estimated Points: 25-45

North Macedonia did their best and the staging is the best possible they could produce. Unfortunately, their entry is too weak. Anything better than the bottom-3 will be a success.

Let's talk about bets

I have mentioned in my previous posts that my book for this year is 1000 units (200 for each SF + 600 for the F). The returned units from the SFs can be used as well.

Last week I tipped Azerbaijan NQ @ 3.25 - 40 units

That means that I have 160 units left.

My main bet for tonight will be Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units

Belgium is a safe choice with the Juries, and I find it difficult to see them struggling much with Televoting. This is the price that currently has the most value and I'm happy to call it.

I will also top-up Azerbaijan's NQ @ 2.37 - 35 units, so the total will be 

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units

and I'm left with 25 units. 

Unfortunately, my next tips are not available in all betting sites but there is some value there for those who have access.

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (approx. 3.70) - 20 units

Cyprus is currently overpriced and Lithuania, Ukraine, Russia could steal its spot.

And finally, my fun bet Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units

So here are all my tips

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (approx. 3.70) - 20 units

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units

Good luck with all your bets tonight. I will be live on Twitter during the SF 

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 11. Albania

 

11. Albania

Qualifying Record: 8/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 4/12

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 9. Serbia

 

9. Serbia

Qualifying Record: 8/11

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/12

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 15. Ukraine

 

15. Ukraine

Qualifying Record: 11/11

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/3

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/12 for 15th slot, 8/12 for the penultimate slot

Current Country Streak: 11 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 NQ for 15th slot, 4 Q for penultimate slot

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 14. Azerbaijan

 

14. Azerbaijan

Qualifying Record: 10/11*(9/11 if 50/50 rule is applied in 14'-15') 

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/6* (4/6 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 13. Romania

 

13. Romania

Qualifying Record: 10/12

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 12. Israel

 

12. Israel

Qualifying Record: 8/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 4 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 11. Belgium

 

11. Belgium

Qualifying Record: 5/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 4/12

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 10. Croatia

 

10. Croatia

Qualifying Record: 6/13

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/4

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 7. Ireland

 

7. Ireland

Qualifying Record: 6/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 6. North Macedonia

 

6. North Macedonia

Qualifying Record: 6/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 5. Australia

 

5. Australia

Qualifying Record: 4/4

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/4

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12

Current Country Streak: 4 Q

                                                                Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 4. Sweden

 

4. Sweden

Qualifying Record: 10/11

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 5/12

Current Country Streak: 7 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q