Belgium has decided to use a National Final for its entry for the first time since 2016 and Eurosong has delivered in terms of production.
A big arena with a Eurovision size stage and quality of the production and a strong line up. What could go wrong?
Eurovision history has proved that there are some nations that thrive in the Contest when they opt in for internal selection processes and others have mastered the National Finals formats that guarantee a successful representation almost every year.
Belgium belongs to the first category; however, they have opted for the National Final and the actual result left many viewers dumbfounded.
Gustaph's ' Because of You' was not considered to be among the favorites but managed to clinch the win finishing second in Televoting and third among the Jurors. That is not a good sign come May.
' Because of You' is a rather generic/dull camp entry that emphasizes mostly on Gustaph's appearance. The fact that we have a 100% Televoting Semi-Final might help a bit, but Belgium is in serious trouble this year.
They will need a second half draw in a western Europe-centric Semi - Final, hoping that no other camp/extravagant entries will be there. Gustaph will need to pull a Cezar or a Serhat to stand a chance and the song is not helping that much.
I wouldn't be totally surprised if Belgium qualified but there is a long and bumpy road ahead...
It reminds me of...
Romania '13 and '22, San Marino '16 and '19, Montenegro '17
Televoting Potential: 6.5/10
Jury Potential: 2/10
Staging Potential: 6/10
Momentum: 3/10
My Opinion: 4/10
Total: 21.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001% - 0.01%
Best case scenario:
Marginal qualification and a Bottom-3 result
Worst case scenario:
Fails to qualify and finishes last in Semi - Final.
To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...
Not to Qualify with a 60% - 80% certainty
What do I see in my crystal ball?
All roads lead to Belgium's non qualification one way or the other, unless Gustaph becomes a viral sensation and people give him the sympathy vote.
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