I have not watched FiK so there are not many things I can say regarding Albina and Familja Kelmendi's win.
Duje is a typical Albanian/Balkan dirge that will have some appeal in the region and the Albanian diaspora. I guess that we will have the traditional revamp so it might be a bit early to judge this version, but it does seem a weaker entry compared to the ones that Albania has recently sent in the Contest.
Rallying 100% in diaspora and neighbours is its biggest problem though...North Macedonia and Montenegro which are responsible for the biggest chunk of points for Albania (1st and 5th respectively for the 2014-2022 period) are no longer here to give their support.
That means that Albania will need at least two of Italy, Greece, and Switzerland in its Semi-Final and/or a high score from the rest of the world televote to have some hopes for the Final.
Albania will need approximately 55-60 points to secure the qualification and that could prove tricky with a bad running order as well. Slots #2 to #4 and #10 and #11 could kill their chances.
Resuming, Duje is an entry that will depend on the Albanian diaspora and a good running order. I fail to see how they can reach the threshold having a minimal impact in western audiences.
It reminds me of...
Albania '07, '11, '19
Televoting Potential: 5/10
Jury Potential: 6.5/10
Staging Potential: 6.5/10
Momentum: 5/10
My Opinion: 5/10
Total: 28/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.01% - 0.10%
Best case scenario:
Marginal qualification and then finish 18th-22nd
Worst case scenario:
Fails to qualify and a Bottom-3 finish
To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question
Not to Qualify 60%-70%
What do I see in my crystal ball?
A bad running order in the Semi - Final and a clear non qualification place and score.
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