Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Albania

 

Zjerm - Shkodra Elektronike

I have waited for a while before posting Albania's review just to make sure that my enthusiasm and bias will settle down. 

'Zjerm' is my personal favourite entry for the season and coming from a nation that has not had great success in Eurovision makes things more complicated. I will try to be as much objective as possible but you have been warned. 

I loved the entry since its audio release before Festival I Kenges and never looked back. It is an interesting mix of electro/dance music with traditional music instruments that manages to blend them nicely offering an authentic and filling experience. 

The song progresses nicely after grabbing your attention from the very first second and Beatrice is a true performer. The break in the middle with Kole's lyrics does add to the song's value but it is very clear that Kole does not feel 100% comfortable and this is something that needs to be addressed for Eurovision.

I do have the suspicion that Albania could have an impact with both constituencies, ticking boxes and oozing authenticity. Albania by numbers has a secured amount of points coming from diaspora and friends (50-80) and adding 20-30 points with each constituency might be enough to secure them the Top-10 place that they have been missing for 13 years! This is the first Albanian entry after a very long time that will be getting points in Public vote outside of their diaspora deservedly.

In my opinion, the actual result does not matter that much for Albania because this is the kind of entries they should be sending to Eurovision, representing their culture and tradition but showing some ambition as well. 

I do believe that Albania has a unique chance to create some hype after the Semi - Final and fight/contend for a spot in the Top-5 but this might be a tough ask for them. I believe they will land somewhere in the middle being 8th-10th. 

 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Albania cruising to the Final and most probably cracks the Top-5 in the Semi - Final. The hype will get traction and Albania will secure its first Top-10 result since 2012 finishing 8th-10th. I will not be surprised if they finish in Top-10 with both constituencies. 

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 42/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 1%

Best case scenario:

6th-8th

Worst case scenario:

14th-17th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 75-105

F: J: 75-100 - PV: 75-125 - Tot: 150-225

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Albania capable of pulling a 'Shum' and crack the Top-5?

You can hear my thoughts about Albania in the 1st episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Albania

 

First Thoughts:

Albania is probably the trickier mystery to solve. Before the revamp, the song was a classic Albanian entry with a few western elements. 

After the allocation draw for the Semi - Final with Albania having almost all of its diaspora and friends voting to the same Semi - Final, I moved them to my qualifiers list.

Then we have had the revamp and the announcement of the running order and Albania went back to the borderline list.

The main problem with the revamp is that it is in English and Besa risks alienating herself from the diaspora risking for some extra points.

The running order is not a big problem for them because it is the diaspora that will decide for its fate. If they are behind Besa, the 45-55 points needed could be found. 

Albania is traditionally a borderline country when it comes to qualifications with the last five all coming in the 8th-10th threshold and I expect a similar result if they qualify. 

I do have have them in my NQ list but I have to wait for the Jury show to call this one.

If they make it to the Final though, a mid-table result could happen with a a decent amount of points coming from the Juries as well. 16th-22nd in that case.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 32.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Mid-table result in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-55

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 25-75 - Tot: 50-125

What do I see in my crystal ball?

I still cannot decide for Albania but I will go for the 11th-12th in the Semi - Final, paying the price of a very loaded Public vote oriented Semi - Final.

I am open to reconsider my position though by next week.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression - Albania

 

First Thoughts:

I have not watched FiK so there are not many things I can say regarding Albina and Familja Kelmendi's win.

Duje is a typical Albanian/Balkan dirge that will have some appeal in the region and the Albanian diaspora. I guess that we will have the traditional revamp so it might be a bit early to judge this version, but it does seem a weaker entry compared to the ones that Albania has recently sent in the Contest.

Rallying 100% in diaspora and neighbours is its biggest problem though...North Macedonia and Montenegro which are responsible for the biggest chunk of points for Albania (1st and 5th respectively for the 2014-2022 period) are no longer here to give their support.

That means that Albania will need at least two of Italy, Greece, and Switzerland in its Semi-Final and/or a high score from the rest of the world televote to have some hopes for the Final. 

Albania will need approximately 55-60 points to secure the qualification and that could prove tricky with a bad running order as well. Slots #2 to #4 and #10 and #11 could kill their chances. 

Resuming, Duje is an entry that will depend on the Albanian diaspora and a good running order. I fail to see how they can reach the threshold having a minimal impact in western audiences.

It reminds me of...

Albania '07, '11, '19

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 28/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.10%

Best case scenario:

Marginal qualification and then finish 18th-22nd

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify and a Bottom-3 finish

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question

Not to Qualify 60%-70%

What do I see in my crystal ball?

A bad running order in the Semi - Final and a clear non qualification place and score.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 1 - 1. Albania has a...Sekret

 

1. Albania

Qualifying Record: 9/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 3 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q