Albania is probably the trickier mystery to solve. Before the revamp, the song was a classic Albanian entry with a few western elements.
After the allocation draw for the Semi - Final with Albania having almost all of its diaspora and friends voting to the same Semi - Final, I moved them to my qualifiers list.
Then we have had the revamp and the announcement of the running order and Albania went back to the borderline list.
The main problem with the revamp is that it is in English and Besa risks alienating herself from the diaspora risking for some extra points.
The running order is not a big problem for them because it is the diaspora that will decide for its fate. If they are behind Besa, the 45-55 points needed could be found.
Albania is traditionally a borderline country when it comes to qualifications with the last five all coming in the 8th-10th threshold and I expect a similar result if they qualify.
I do have have them in my NQ list but I have to wait for the Jury show to call this one.
If they make it to the Final though, a mid-table result could happen with a a decent amount of points coming from the Juries as well. 16th-22nd in that case.
Televoting Potential: 6.5/10
Jury Potential: 7/10
Staging Potential: 7/10
Momentum: 6/10
My Opinion: 6/10
Total: 32.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001%
Best case scenario:
Mid-table result in Final
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 25-55
F: J: 25-50 - PV: 25-75 - Tot: 50-125
What do I see in my crystal ball?
I still cannot decide for Albania but I will go for the 11th-12th in the Semi - Final, paying the price of a very loaded Public vote oriented Semi - Final.
I am open to reconsider my position though by next week.
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