Isaak winning the German national final @27 and laying Ryk @1.30-1.35 have been my biggest wins in the national finals season.
'Always on the Run' is a decent entry that could get a decent jury score, somewhere in the middle, and be enough to propel Germany out of the Bottom-5.
It is performing very good so far in the Eurojury, but I am very dubious that it could be that high next May.
There were also some positive comments about Isaak during the pre-parties but the same could be said for the majority of the entries and could have zero impact in the actual voting.
It is the type of entry that is someone's fifth-eighth song and that might not be enough to grab the phone and vote for it.
The only certainty there is for Germany right now is that it will not finish in the last place and that it could be a decisive factor in the winner race 'stealing' some jury points from the regional favorites (Switzerland, Netherlands).
There are other priorities for EBU/producers when it comes to Big-5 and that might hurt its minimal chances for a mid-table result.
The most realistic goal for them would be to finish in Top-10 with the Juries and avoid Bottom-3 in the Public vote.
I currently have Germany somewhere between 17th-23rd but I am open for a slightly better result than that.
Televoting Potential: 6/10
Jury Potential: 8/10
Staging Potential: 6/10
Momentum: 6/10
My Opinion: 6.5/10
Total: 32.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001%-0.1%
Best case scenario:
Mid-table result
Worst case scenario:
Last place
Pre-Contest estimated points:
Final: Js: 40-125 - TV: 5-25 - Total: 45-150
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Germany finishing mid-table in the Jury vote and get a double digit PV score, enough for them to finish 19th.
You can hear some thoughts about Germany in the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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