Two hundred plus posts later, this will be the fifth contest that I will be covering and the first one with an Online Media Accreditation so I am curious to see if something will be different this year when it comes to my estimations and predictions.
I have checked my track record in both fields (estimations/predictions, betting tips) to check my progress through the years and these are the results.
Semi - Final Qualifiers
I will start my analysis of the past with my Semi - Final predictions regarding the qualifiers.
'19: 16/20 (7-9)
'21: 16/20 (8-8)
'22: 16/20 (9-7)
'23: 19/20 (10-9)
There is an improvement here that mostly has to do with the voting system, making it easier to predict the Top-10 with just one constituency instead of two.
I always set as a minimum for myself to get 8/10 correct qualifiers and I can say that I am overall satisfied with the outcome.
I was very close last year to have a perfect 20/20, having Estonia 11th on my list and Greece qualifying!
The total score is 67/80.
Winners
We will always have Ukraine '22 to remind us/me that we can get it wrong. A bizarre year that will always be used as a case study.
I am proud for the other three calls, especially with my analysis for Italy '21 win where I predicted the point margins for both constituencies and total as well.
Score: 3/4 and I highly anticipate this year where things are more complicated and interesting so far.
Top-3
This one was a surprise for me having 2/3 correct predictions in all four editions so far. The main reason for this one, that is also apparent in my betting tips and will try to resolve this year (see below to resolution), is that I do overestimate the power of a country emerging after the Semi - Finals (Switzerland '19) or the power of some Jury magnets (Malta '21, Spain '23).
I think I have found the solution to that problem in my Know your Numbers 2024 Edition where it is obvious that the Top-3 consists of two Public vote magnets and just one Jury and not the other way around.
Total Score: 8/12
Top-5
There has been some improvement here as well, starting with 2/5 back in '19 and getting 4/5 in the other editions.
is it time for a 5/5? Maybe...
Total Score: 14/20
Top-10
There have been some ups and downs in this one.
'19: 7/10
'21: 9/10
'22: 8/10
'23: 7/10
Overall is not a bad result with the ones missing out being most of the times just outside the Top-10. I do set as a minimum though getting 8/10 so I am slightly below my average.
Total Score: 31/40
And now the most interesting part, my betting tips analysis!
Units invested and ROI
I will start with the bigger picture which is the total amount of units invested in the previous four years and the ROI.
Units Invested: 4132.7
Units Returned: 5330.8
ROI: 29%
Betting Tips: 19/64 29.7% (19/56 33.9% if fan bets are deducted)
Average odds per winning betting tip: 2.72
The good news is that there is 29% ROI with a very mediocre 29.7% of successful tips. The average odds per winning betting tip is also higher than I expected at 2.72 with just nine tips having odds lower than 2.00.
Breaking down the investment on a yearly basis gives the following results
'19 Units Invested: 629.4 - Units Returned: 487.4 - ROI: -22.6% - Betting Tips: 5/16
'21 Units Invested: 1191 - Units Returned: 1344.1 - ROI: 12.9% - Betting Tips: 5/15
'22 Units Invested: 1226.7 - Units Returned: 1328.7 - ROI: 8.3% - Betting Tips: 6/21
'23 Units Invested: 1085.6 - Units Returned: 2098.6 - ROI: 93.3% - Betting Tips: 3/12
It is very obvious that last year was the most profitable of all and that is thanks to a change that I have made on my betting strategy. The most impressive stat in my opinion is that last year I have almost doubled my investment having only 25% accuracy on my tips, but these winning tips did have the majority of the units invested on them.
Last year I have decided to reduce the amount of bets and invest more units in odds that do have the higher value.
And now the breakdown that astonished me. I have checked my performance based on the Semi - Final 1/2 tips and the Grand Final and there is an elephant in the room.
Semi - Final 1: Units Invested: 500 - Units Returned: 861.9 - ROI: 72.4% - Betting Tips: 8/16
Semi - Final 2: Units Invested: 590 - Units Returned: 89.4 - ROI: -84.8% - Betting Tips: 2/16
Grand Final : Units Invested: 3042.7 - Units Returned: 4379.5 - ROI: 43.9% - Betting Tips: 9/32
The difference between Semi - Final 1 and Semi - Final is mind blowing. In fact the only two successful tips date back to 2019!
Is there a reason behind that huge discrepancy? I do think that there is. Semi - Final 1 usually takes more focus and attention before and during rehearsals while Semi - Final 2 it gets a bit lost/forgotten, especially when rehearsals kick in with almost a week between their second rehearsal and the dress rehearsal.
The other explanation is that my tips for Semi - Final 2 tend to be a bit more riskier.
My betting strategy for 2024
After examining my data I have decided to change some things again to improve my performance and my ROI.
Compared to my personal books, which are open for two to three months every season, the ROI of my betting tips is almost half. My twenty year average ROI on betting in Eurovision is approximately 65%, having six seasons with 100%+ and only two losing seasons back in 2010 and 2011.
The first major change is about the number of tips per Semi - Final and Grand Final. I have decided to reduce them further aiming for a maximum of three per Semi - Final and a maximum of four for the Final.
My aim is to have a 50% accuracy that would automatically increase my ROI to 100%+ There were many tips in the past years that did have some value of course but were more of a stretch.
I will try to minimize the risk and opt for safer bets, reducing the bets with very long odds that have not been that successful in the past.
I mentioned before that I have tipped only nine bets with odds shorter than 2.00, with the shorter odds being 1.61.
I do not intend to go for shorter odds, unless there is no value elsewhere in a Semi - Final.
The Book for 2024
The format of my book will be the same as in previous years. 1000 units, 100 per Semi - Final, with the returned units invested again in Semi - Final 2 and/or Final if necessary, and 800 units allocated for the Final.
There will be a small change in my strategy in the Semi - Finals. I have decided that there is no reason to push my luck if I do not find value in any of the Semi - Finals, so there might be a case that I will not use the full 100 units allocated to each Semi and invest them straight in the Final.
Having a press pass this year will also allow me to go after bigger values during the dress rehearsals and the Jury shows, so watch out for any updates during the Eurovision week.
I have also noticed a bias I had towards entries that gained some traction after the Semi - Finals and before the Final and overestimated their potential, placing them higher than their actual position (Switzerland '19, Ukraine '21, Israel '23).
The focus this year will be the accuracy.
Next week I will create a post with my book with all my tips for the season, that will be updated every time there is a new tip. There will be tweets to inform you about it.
Do not forget to follow my X account for all updates and the coverage of the Eurovision week.
Good luck!
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