Breaking the Winner's Code...

 

We are less than a month away from the rehearsals and it is time to have a look at the Winner's market and the countries that will be contending.

This year appears to be very open and the things have been very tight near the top with countries switching places between first and fifth.

Before I start mentioning the countries that are in my contenders list I will try to give a short definition of what I do consider a contender.

Contender is an entry that does stand out of the crowd, has a USP and it does offer a moment during the three minutes. That moment could be visual, sentimental, musical perfection, anything that will call the viewer/juror to action. 

This is the first half of my definition and the second half is more boring and it is about math. 

A contender is an entry that could potentially reach 500 points which is the threshold that, most of the times, secures the win. The easiest way to reach to that threshold is to score approximately 300 points with the Televote and 200 points with the juries, unless you are Sweden or Australia that is always the other way around.

 There are some minimums to be achieved for an entry to be in contention.

For juries, the bare minimum is the 150 points threshold, that usually corresponds to 4th-6th place and that means that you need to have a super strong televote magnet that could score more than 350 points there and even that sometimes might not be enough (call me Kaarija).

The bare minimum for the televote is 200 points, again assuming that your entry will score 300+ jury points.

Taking in consideration the 2014-2023 split results that are in the producers' era as well, we have had two entries that finished 4th with the Juries and won (Italy '21, Ukraine '22) and also two more winners that finished 3rd (Israel '18, Netherlands '19).

On the other hand, there is only one country that finished 3rd in the televote and won and that is Sweden '15. Needless to say there is no winner finishing fourth or lower with that constituency.

The average jury ranking for the winners in the '14-'23 span is 2.2 and the average televote ranking is 1.6.

The more we are advancing to the season, the more I think that the contenders will reach or will be very close to those thresholds and even though I was tempted to lower them a bit to go down to 450 points, I stick with my guns to the 500 points for the definition of a contender.

I will share with you some thoughts and the pros and cons for each entry. Feel free to agree or disagree with me.

I have a list with three tiers. Tier 1 includes the two entries that I feel that they have a winning path depending on their performance alone and that path is open with both constituencies.

My Tier 2 includes two more entries that they could find a way to carve a winning path, but they could either fall short with one of the constituencies or simply do not have enough to beat both entries of Tier 1. These are my default winners.

My Tier 3 includes a pool of countries that need to land the perfect storm and do great really great with their constituency and achieve a respectable score with the other. Their chances are theoretical and they need to stage something unique and get some hype during rehearsals.

Grab your popcorn and have fun!

Currently trading @3.60 in betfair, is crashing big time since last Saturday when we got the chance to hear Nemo live for the first time and that was a show!

It was clear since its release day that if Nemo can pull the live and the staging is there, Switzerland is the one to beat and the market is heading to that direction. Fredrik Benke Rydman, the man behind 'Heroes' and 'Cha Cha Cha' among others does feel like a great choice and guarantees an amazing staging.

Switzerland is actively trying to win since '19 ( 4th-'19, 3rd-'21) and history implies that when you try, eventually you also win.

Having not won since '88 makes them an ideal winner as well, with the mentions to Celine Dion etc.

There is an interesting statistical fact as well. In the '10s, we have had five winners being internally selected and five winners coming from national finals. The last internally selected winner was back in '19. Maybe Switzerland is the first one in the 20's.

Pros:

- The potential Jury winner, have established themselves in that category the last few years

- Could find the 175-225 televote points that needs to secure the win

- Nemo's charisma and staging presence

- Switzerland's recent streak of good results with both constituencies

Cons:

- There is a chance that their televote score could struggle if in first half and/or appearing before the big televote magnets (Croatia, Netherlands).

Winning Path:

Jury: 250-300 pts - 1st/2nd

Televote: 175-225 pts - 3rd/6th

Croatia is the runner up on the Winner's market currently @5.80, losing the reigns after a month leading the odds. 

Baby Lasagna feels like the televote winner and although I do think that he will not reach 'Cha Cha Cha' numbers, he could be very close to the 300 points threshold. 

The tough part for Croatia are the Juries. I do think that they stand a chance to be the quirky/strange/extravagant entry that could land a Top-5 result with them, like Finland did last year and Ukraine with some aid of course back in '22.

I do think that Juries stretch their limits on accepting/recognizing this type of entries year after year and Croatia could be on the perfect spot to materialize this acceptance into a Eurovision win. 

We have not had a new winner for a long time as well (Portugal '17 the last one) and that could mean something for a region that needs a spark to join the contest again.

Pros:

- Potential televote winner

- Could/Will be the talk of the town during the week of the contest

- Could be the de facto representative of Balkans/Eastern Europe

- They can get a good sum of jury points (50-75) from neighbors and friends and they just need the random 2s-6s here and there to reach the magic number (175).

- There are some countries that could be higher with Juries but will be irrelevant for the win race and could give Croatia some breathing space finishing even 6th-8th there ( Belgium, France, Sweden, Lithuania, UK)

Cons:

- It is all about the Juries. I might be overestimating his chances.

- I don't think he will have the same staging as in Dora, but if that is the case then it might be a bit chaotic

Winning Path:

Jury: 150-200 - 4th/6th

Televote: 250-300+ - 1st/2nd

This is my Tier 1 and I do think think that it will be a very close race between the two of them. I give Switzerland the upper hand on a 50/50 call just because they could score slightly better with televote than Croatia could potentially score with juries. 

There is the possibility to have a third contender but we need to wait for the rehearsals and the Semi- Finals to find that out.

Now moving to my Tier 2, where I have placed my two default winners.

This is the one entry that it seems I cannot rate the same way as the majority of the market does.

In theory, Italy feels like a Top-3 entry with both constituencies, but I do have the feeling that it could underperform at least with one of the two and that is televote.

There is a list of countries that could score better than Italy in that section, apart from the obvious two (Croatia, Netherlands) that could extend to five or six more ( Ukraine, Switzerland, Greece, Israel, Armenia, Lithuania). 

It is not the most probable scenario but Italy could finish 7th-8th in televote and that is not enough for the win.

My other objection is that Italy is a recent winner, Rai gives the impression that they are not particularly interested in winning and hosting again and EBU I am sure that would not like the contest back to Italy any time soon. 

Back in '22 and even the last year, Italy was giving me the impression that they were sabotaging their own entry to make sure that they will not win.

Pros:

- Angelina's charisma and staging presence

- Italy's proven record with both constituencies recently

- The entry that in theory is in Top-3 with both constituencies

Cons:

- Angelina will need a moment on stage now that the orchestra will not be there to interact with them

- Angelina lost the televote in San Remo hands down by Geolier and in Eurovision she will meet tougher competition with more 'Geoliers' present. She needs to prove herself with the juries as well and prove that she did not win San Remo because the jurors backed her to take the win away from Geolier.

- EBU will prioritize France for sure, UK maybe as well, above Italy. Giving Italy the 2nd half draw and France the 1st half in the Semi - Final is an indication of a reversed position in the Final if in same half. Italy will be the first one to 'sacrifice' for another strong/potential contender.

Winning path:

Jury: 225-275 - 1st/3rd

Televote: 200-250 - 2nd/4th

Four months ago, Ukraine was leading the market and now is a steady fourth, drifting a bit day by day and heading to the double digits for the first time this year.

In theory, Ukraine has 200+ televote points in the bag thanks to the diaspora and friends that could secure a Top-3 there.

The question is how high could they end up with the juries. This is the type of entry where 7th-11th feels its natural habitat.

Will the juries award it more or will they try to secure that a third Ukrainian win is not happening in eight years?

Another recent winner, that was also benefited by the EBU's stance back in '22 and it feels that its hype is fading away. 

It has a very solid 300 points threshold that could be enough for them to finish 4th-6th but I fail to see them going higher than that.

Let's not forget that Ukraine was the runner up in the odds for most part of the season and went back to double digits by the time of the Semi - Finals just because it was the big unknown or the elephant in the room, with a slightly less effective entry to be fair though. 

Pros:

- Diaspora and friends that secure easily 200 televote points

- Could be Top-4/5 with Juries

Cons:

- Juries could/would mark it down if they feel it is a contender

- Is not a priority for producers/EBU to get a good running order

- The momentum is fading away

Winning Path:

Jury: 175-225 - 3rd/5th

Televote: 200-300 - 1st/3rd

Tier 3 has a pool of entries that need an extraordinary result with one of the two constituencies and a great result with the other one in order to create a path for the win. 

Their chances are only theoretical and they all need a major step up in rehearsals to improve their chances for the win.

There is no reason for the moment to get in much detail and I will just mention their winning paths and the major cons and pros just to have the picture.

Slimane needs to win the Juries by a landslide, scoring 325+ and then be Top-4/6 with televote to secure 150-175 points there.

I could see a path for the Juries, but achieving the televote score as well could prove a tough ask. My current projection gives them 50-75 televote points.

France has 200-250 points as a starting point and needs to build from there but is the first one on my list that could very well end up outside the Top-10 if certain things go wrong.

Netherlands is meant to finish Top-2/3 with the televote and there is a chance they could even win there, but I do doubt that they can get more than 300 points there.

That means they need 175+ jury points and this is where things get complicated. Apart from the genre that is not juror's cup of tea and I am open minded about getting past that obstacle, Netherlands has really tough competition in that region alone to get those jury points. 

There are Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, Germany and France that will be competing for the 6s-12s in the same region and Netherlands will lose a great deal of points because of that reason. 

Could see them cracking Top-3 but going higher than that needs the perfect storm.

The 2024 elephant in the room. Israel has a very very narrow path where its diaspora backs them heavily to secure a great televote score of 250+ televote points and the juries award their entry that genre-wise is considered a jury bait and secure circa 200 points with them. 

I could see the televote part happening and a part of the jury love happening, but I am sure that certain jurors will mark this one down and make sure that an Israeli win is not happening this year. 

And this is where my list with contenders, default winners and wannabe contenders ends. 

 My feel is that we are heading for a two horse race, with a pack of countries following from a distance.

I am still open for a third country joining the favorites but we need to wait for the rehearsals.

I am happy to inform you that my Online Media Press Accreditation was approved and I will be covering the rehearsals and the shows online during that week.

You can hear my thoughts about the contenders in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 08

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Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section here and on X as well!