After months of speculations that Justyna would represent Poland, it was Luna in the end the one that was chosen with her song 'The Tower' and she will try to extend Poland's qualifying streak to three consecutive years.
Poland is still flying under the radar, most probably because fans were expecting Justyna, but it does have all the elements that could secure a respectable result in May.
Luna is very unique and able performer, the song is catchy enough and accessible to both Eastern and Western ears and Poland does have its diaspora to help as well.
The Semi - Final draw has been tough for Poland being sandwiched between Ukraine and Croatia but Televote has never been the problem for them, especially in a Semi - Final with many friends and allies.
It remains to be seen what could Poland do in the Final when they get there. In theory a Top-10 result with the Juries is probable and if diaspora backs 'The Tower' as well, I would not be surprised to see Poland reaching the Top-10.
A mid table result feels a safe option for the moment and we are waiting to see if and how the staging could boost the entry.
It reminds me of...
Czechia '22 (Q),
Televoting Potential: 7.5/10
Jury Potential: 7.5/10
Staging Potential: 8/10
Momentum: 7/10
My Opinion: 8/10
Total: 38/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1%-0.5%
Best case scenario:
Top-10
Worst case scenario:
Bottom-5 in Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 80-120
Final: Js: 50-125 - TV: 50-125 - Total: 100-250
What do I see in my crystal ball?
This is a tough one for the moment as it has a wide range. My feeling says that is should be near the Top-10 but for the moment flies under the radar, so I will settle with the definition of mid table and say 13th-14th.
If in Top-10 with Juries though, anything could happen.
You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 03
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