Like every year I will be sharing my Pre-Rehearsals Power Ranking for each Semi - Final, using these posts as a picture of the moment.
Everything we knew so far might be a distant memory in just ten days time.
So let's begin our journey with Semi - Final 1. This Semi is very first half oriented with almost all the competitive entries performing there.
Odds imply that all seven acts will qualify to the Final, something that has never happened before. In fact there has not been a Semi - Final yet where the first four songs all qualified.
On the other hand, if there is a Semi - Final in 100 years that 7/7 qualifications could happen in the first half this should be it.
Currently I am leaning on a 6/7. The drop of quality between the two halves is more than apparent and I struggle to find more than three entries that deserve to qualify from that half.
So here are my Rankings before we see any of the staging.
1. Croatia
Baby Lasagna is entering rehearsals being second in odds and also one of the favorites to win the Public Vote. He was given the best slot of the first half, implying that producers do agree with its favoritism.
To win the SF at 1.47 has no value in my opinion but this is by far the strongest scenario.
Croatia needs a strong performance to create some hype around them. If they can do that the sky is the limit.
2. Ukraine
The other Top-3/5 contender that performs in the Semi - Final. Ukraine has quietly lost some ground during the last two months but nothing is over yet.
Ukraine always delivers and it remains to be seen if they can get back on track to be considered a contender.
Not finishing in Top-2 would be a huge surprise.
Croatia and Ukraine are the first tier of this Semi - Final and I fail to find a country that could sneak into the Top-2.
3. Finland
I could make a case both for Lithuania and Ireland to be in that spot, but having the Top-3 coming from the first half on a 100% Public vote Semi - Final is too much.
Finland could and will be irrelevant in the Final, but could have the time to shine in this Semi. It has happened very often in the past and it could happen again.
I do find the odds for the Top-3 at 1.82 short though.
4. Lithuania
They have lost a bit of their hype and energy that they had two months ago and the Eurojury result did not help either.
However this is one of the slickest entries that could attract votes from all over Europe and the Lithuanian diaspora will always be there to help.
Top-3 in Semi - Final is at 2.54, fair but statistically improbable.
5. Ireland
The first of all witches. Bambie Thug had one of the most successful pre-parties season and is coming to rehearsals with an extra boost of confidence.
If RTE can finally make a decent staging then they are sailing to the Final. Having UK performing after them will give them some additional points.
6. Poland
An entry that is flying under the radar the whole season but could definitely secure a mid-table result in Final.
Diaspora and friends will be there to secure the qualification. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up in Top-3.
Those four countries are my second tier in the Semi - Final and now I am moving in the third tier.
7. Cyprus
The ideal opener for the Semi - Final. Cyprus has mastered their staging in this type of entries and I expect a similar result.
Enough for them to secure the qualification but will struggle in the Final.
8. Luxembourg
The pimp slot and the return after thirty one years could be enough for them to qualify. They are missing the majority of their allies and that could be a problem.
It remains to be seen if Tali is comfortable enough with the revamp version of her song.
The qualifying odds are too short in my opinion.
These are my 8 certain qualifiers and now we are entering tier 3 with three entries that will fight for the two remaining tickets.
9. Australia
One of the few entries that we have not seen live yet and I think that the Aussies will serve us an amazing staging that will secure them the qualification.
Running order will help them and gives them the upper hand.
10. Portugal
My heart and mind says Serbia, but my analyst self cannot process the fact that all seven entries from first half will qualify and for that reason only I give Portugal the last ticket.
'Grito' deserves a place in the Final as well and could do very well with the Juries. Having the penultimate slot is a great advantage for a nation that usually struggles with the Public vote.
11. Serbia
Running order is its main problem. It has some friends in the Semi to secure 12-18 points but they will need to find 30-35 more.
Everything will come down to the staging. If the can offer the wow moment then the ticket could be theirs.
And now moving to the tier 4 with the no-hopers. I will be surprised if any of them makes it to the Final.
12. Moldova
They might get a few low points here and there but not enough to secure a place in the Final.
13. Slovenia
A great performer with a not so great song that will be lost in the the crowd and has no target group.
14. Azerbaijan
Another entry that is made for no one. I think that Azerbaijan has given up on Eurovision and this entry makes it very clear.
15. Iceland
The weakest entry of all stacked after Croatia. The first toilet break of the Semi.
Of course rehearsals might shake things up but I do think we have 11 entries fighting for the 10 tickets.
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