There's no Going Back! (Meow)

 

This has been the wildest week in Eurovision history for sure. 

The last 48hrs have been the absolute madness and there hasn't been a single hour without a new drama unfolding.

Everything started in Thursday night, just after the finish of Semi - Final 2 and the accidental release of the 'partial'? Italian televote where Israel was land sliding the win.

There was a snowball effect with Israel's price crashing from mid 40s to 4s-5s making Israel the second favorite to win after Croatia.

And then there was another drama unfolding yesterday with the Dutch representative Joost allegedly attacking an EBU employee and just a few hours ago it was decided that Netherlands will not be participating in the Eurovision Grand Final reducing the lineup to twenty five entries. 

Netherlands will be able to vote though, like Serbia and Montenegro did back in 2006. 

In between them, there was the decision for the Running Order of the Final and I do reckon we have witnessed an intervention from EBU to make sure that two things will not be happening tonight:

1. Israel doesn't win and

2. Ukraine does not win either.

Israel got the Malta '21 treatment given #6 and Ukraine got the death slot #2, something that has never happened to a contender in the past. Netherlands was also sacrificed at #5 to reduce the Israeli public somehow but Joost had other plans. The message is we sacrifice the recent winners and give the contenders that have not won for a while the chance to win.

The biggest winners were Croatia #22 now, Switzerland #20 and France #24. Croatia got the most favorable slot just a few spots before the closing which is the optimal place to be and Switzerland is coming first after a not so strong part of the Final. France has the latest draw of all to boost a bit its public vote score where it needs help.

Baby Lasagna had the underdog label for the whole season but he was transformed in stage to a powerful character that can carry the stadium and the viewers with him. The public loves him and I reckon that the televoters and the pure fans of the Contest will unite under his umbrella to save the Contest from the unthinkable that would have been an Israeli win this year.

EBU is trying everything in its power to help him win as well and a Croatian win could signal the return of some Balkan countries back in the Contest, now that the tank is getting empty.

Nemo has been remarkable on stage delivering a faultless performance. He is the most probable Jury winner from last night and the audience poll in the stadium suggested that his public vote appeal is bigger than the one the market suggested, something that I have highlighted in my contender's analysis some time ago.

It all comes down to how the public will react to the possibility of an Israeli win and if they will split the votes between Croatia and Switzerland or will sacrifice some votes to support Croatia. Switzerland is not chanceless yet and could be close to Croatia.

Netherlands' absence might send some regional public votes his way though. 

Israel was always the x factor and it is very surprising that the market was caught off guard  with the fear of missing out spreading fast since Thursday night. 

There was always the speculation that the Israeli public vote would be really high because of the diaspora and pro-Israeli supporters and they have played the 'victim' card really nice. We still do not know the extent of this, but there will be jurors that will blank this one to make sure that they will not win. 

These are the three contenders for tonight in my opinion and it could a close race. There was this narrative floating around the whole season that we will end up with a winner in the 400-450 points threshold. 

Many analyses out there were suggesting that this is the most possible outcome, however with everything that has happened in the last few days, I do expect the opposite. 

My prediction is that we will have a Top-2 in the 500+ close to 600 points area with a third entry way over the 400 points with the rest of the pack following from distance.

Here is my breakdown for tonight and some thoughts about how the night could evolve

1. Croatia

Estimated Points: 545-600 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 225-250)

There was the notion that Croatia would struggle with Juries but Baby Lasagna was more than strong last week and a Top-3 there is more than possible, especially now that some Juries will back him to prevent Israel winning.

Anything above 175 points could be enough.

Metrics to watch out: Croatia needs a 75-100 points headstart from Israel and be less than 100 points behind Switzerland to secure the win.

2. Switzerland

Estimated Points: 520 - 560 (Tv: 240-260 - Juries: 280-300)

Metrics to watch out: It all depends on how high Switzerland can go with the Public vote and how big will be their lead with the Juries. Could be the deciding factor for Israel's loss if the Jury score reaches the 300 points threshold leaving a breathing space to them and /or Croatia. 

If they can reach the 325 threshold, they can actually win.

Nemo does deserve to finish up there and Top-3 is a lock in my opinion. 

3. Israel

Estimated Points: 390 - 440 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 60-80)

Performing at #5 suggests that their potential public vote lead is controllable. I do think that their televote estimation is the worst case scenario and I do think that the Juries will try to balance it.

If they end up with the win, EBU will be left with a very damaged product for the '25 edition and Pandora's box will be open. 

Metrics to watch out: 100-125 jury points and people will start sweating, 150+ and Israel should be considered the winner. Assuming that their Jury result will be low, we will know their televote score quite early.

4. France

Estimated Points: 320 - 375 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 220-250)

Metrics to watch out: Slimane relies on his jury score to secure a Top-4/5 result and I do think he will be there in the end.

5. Ukraine

Estimated Points: 310 - 360 (Tv: 190-220 - Juries: 120-140)

Ukraine has been the major victim of the running order but getting a third political win in the last eight years would not be fair for the other participants. 

Could have been a Top-3 contender if later in the draw, and there is a minor chance this still happens if the diaspora backs them. Top-5 should be considered a safe bet.

Metrics to watch out: This will be a case study for the power of the Ukrainian diaspora and how strong that diaspora is in terms of affecting the public vote results. 

6. Italy 

Estimated Points: 250-300 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 150-175)

Italy got a running order in the middle, far away from the other contenders but could also be the entry that will suffer the most from the polarized voting tonight.

Italy could potentially sneak in Top-5 but I reckon it is more probable to be a few places lower than higher from where I currently have them.

7. Ireland

Estimated Points: 210-250 (Tv: 170-190 - Juries: 40-60)

8. Greece 

Estimated Points: 190-235 (Tv: 110-135 - Juries: 80-100)

9. Portugal 

Estimated Points: 165-210 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 125-150)

10. Lithuania

Estimated Points: 160-200 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 60-80)

11. Sweden

Estimated Points: 130-175 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 100-125)

12. Latvia 

Estimated Points: 120-165 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 100-125)

13. UK

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 80-100)

14. Serbia

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 70-90)

15. Georgia

Estimated Points: 85-125 (Tv: 60-80 - Juries: 25-45)

16. Armenia

Estimated Points: 60-100 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 20-40)

17. Estonia

Estimated Points: 55-90 (Tv: 50-75 - Juries: 5-15)

18. Norway

Estimated Points: 40-80 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 20-40)

19. Spain

Estimated Points: 35-75 (Tv: 15-35 - Juries: 20-40)

20. Cyprus

Estimated Points: 45-70 (Tv: 20-30 - Juries: 25-40)

21. Luxembourg

Estimated Points: 30-70 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 20-40)

22. Germany

Estimated Points: 30-65 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 25-45)

23. Slovenia

Estimated Points: 25-60 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 20-40)

24. Finland

Estimated Points: 10-40 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 0-10)

25. Austria

Estimated Points: 5-25 (Tv: 5-15 - Juries: 0-10)

Before getting to my betting tips for tonight a few words about my personal book this season. 

Croatia or Switzerland winning the Contest will be enough to have my most profitable Eurovision season ever, backing them both from the early days of their releases. 

I have a position on Israel just to break even in case they win, having already cashed out the biggest part of my position there.

I have neither backed or laid Italy and Ukraine throughout the season and had a small amount on Netherlands being very happy with that strategy coming with a small amount of dead money the night of the Final. 

I have also backed Croatia in the Top-3/4 market earlier this month and last month in longer odds and have also France in Top-4/5 markets.

Portugal, Greece and Lithuania are my calls for the Top-10 market and have some positions in the Top-15 on Latvia, Georgia, Portugal and UK, all the 2.50-4.50 area.

For the last place contention I have Austria and Luxembourg as my main contenders again at double digit odds.

And now the time you were waiting for...The tips for tonight. My Semi - Final bets have been subpar this year, chasing some values there that did not turn into profit. My only remorse is that I should have had Belgium NQ there as well, but I did mention that it was on my book and also tweeted during the show so I do hope that some of you followed that as well.

Having 0 units returned from the Semi - Finals I have 800 units available for the Final. 

I am not tipping Croatia, currently at 1.96 just because I think there is no real value there at the moment, but I do think this is our Winner tonight and I wish you have backed him earlier in the season.

In my betting resolution for this year, I have mentioned that I am aiming for the accuracy this year so I will keep my promise and just make three suggestions for tonight 

Portugal To Finish in Top-15 @ 2.60 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units

Greece To Finish in Top-10 @ 1.83 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units

Top-Nordic Sweden @ 2.06 (Bf Exchange) x 150 units

 and will add 50 units for my fun bets

Austria To Finish Last @ 19.50 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units

Portugal to Finish in Top-10 @ 7.60 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units

Good luck with your bets tonight. I do hope that will find my post useful for the long night that is ahead of us.

I wish I could have given you more insight and suggestions about bets but it has been crazy the last few days trying to catch up with all the dramas unfolding.

I will be active on X later tonight to comment on the results and of course, don't forget to listen to the latest episode of Talk About Things with Panos and Matt.

Semi Final 1 - The Pre-Rehearsals Power Rankings...Meow

 

Here we are! The Eurojury results dust has not settled yet and rehearsals are on the way. 

Like every year I will be sharing my Pre-Rehearsals Power Ranking for each Semi - Final, using these posts as a picture of the moment.

Everything we knew so far might be a distant memory in just ten days time.

So let's begin our journey with Semi - Final 1. This Semi is very first half oriented with almost all the competitive entries performing there.

Odds imply that all seven acts will qualify to the Final, something that has never happened before. In fact there has not been a Semi - Final yet where the first four songs all qualified.

On the other hand, if there is a Semi - Final in 100 years that 7/7 qualifications could happen in the first half this should be it.

Currently I am leaning on a 6/7. The drop of quality between the two halves is more than apparent and I struggle to find more than three entries that deserve to qualify from that half.

So here are my Rankings before we see any of the staging.

1. Croatia

Baby Lasagna is entering rehearsals being second in odds and also one of the favorites to win the Public Vote. He was given the best slot of the first half, implying that producers do agree with its favoritism. 

To win the SF at 1.47 has no value in my opinion but this is by far the strongest scenario.

Croatia needs a strong performance to create some hype around them. If they can do that the sky is the limit.

2. Ukraine

The other Top-3/5 contender that performs in the Semi - Final. Ukraine has quietly lost some ground during the last two months but nothing is over yet.

Ukraine always delivers and it remains to be seen if they can get back on track to be considered a contender. 

Not finishing in Top-2 would be a huge surprise.

Croatia and Ukraine are the first tier of this Semi - Final and I fail to find a country that could sneak into the Top-2.

3. Finland

I could make a case both for Lithuania and Ireland to be in that spot, but having the Top-3 coming from the first half on a 100% Public vote Semi - Final is too much.

Finland could and will be irrelevant in the Final, but could have the time to shine in this Semi. It has happened very often in the past and it could happen again.

I do find the odds for the Top-3 at 1.82 short though.

4. Lithuania

They have lost a bit of their hype and energy that they had two months ago and the Eurojury result did not help either.

However this is one of the slickest entries that could attract votes from all over Europe and the Lithuanian diaspora will always be there to help.

Top-3 in Semi - Final is at 2.54, fair but statistically improbable.

5. Ireland

The first of all witches. Bambie Thug had one of the most successful pre-parties season and is coming to rehearsals with an extra boost of confidence.

If RTE can finally make a decent staging then they are sailing to the Final. Having UK performing after them will give them some additional points.

6. Poland

An entry that is flying under the radar the whole season but could definitely secure a mid-table result in Final. 

Diaspora and friends will be there to secure the qualification. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up in Top-3.

Those four countries are my second tier in the Semi - Final and now I am moving in the third tier.

7. Cyprus

The ideal opener for the Semi - Final. Cyprus has mastered their staging in this type of entries and I expect a similar result.

Enough for them to secure the qualification but will struggle in the Final. 

8. Luxembourg 

The pimp slot and the return after thirty one years could be enough for them to qualify. They are missing the majority of their allies and that could be a problem. 

It remains to be seen if Tali is comfortable enough with the revamp version of her song. 

The qualifying odds are too short in my opinion.

These are my 8 certain qualifiers and now we are entering tier 3 with three entries that will fight for the two remaining tickets.

9. Australia

One of the few entries that we have not seen live yet and I think that the Aussies will serve us an amazing staging that will secure them the qualification. 

Running order will help them and gives them the upper hand.

10. Portugal

My heart and mind says Serbia, but my analyst self cannot process the fact that all seven entries from first half will qualify and for that reason only I give Portugal the last ticket.

'Grito' deserves a place in the Final as well and could do very well with the Juries. Having the penultimate slot is a great advantage for a nation that usually struggles with the Public vote.

11. Serbia

Running order is its main problem. It has some friends in the Semi to secure 12-18 points but they will need to find 30-35 more.

Everything will come down to the staging. If the can offer the wow moment then the ticket could be theirs.

And now moving to the tier 4 with the no-hopers. I will be surprised if any of them makes it to the Final.

12. Moldova

They might get a few low points here and there but not enough to secure a place in the Final.

13. Slovenia

A great performer with a not so great song that will be lost in the the crowd and has no target group.

14. Azerbaijan

Another entry that is made for no one. I think that Azerbaijan has given up on Eurovision and this entry makes it very clear.

15. Iceland

The weakest entry of all stacked after Croatia. The first toilet break of the Semi.

Of course rehearsals might shake things up but I do think we have 11 entries fighting for the 10 tickets.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Croatia

First Thoughts:

The dust is finally settling for Croatia a few weeks after Baby Lasagna settled in pole position for the Winner's market.

The first reaction in the Dora Semi - Final was a bit underwhelming and the market remained confused whether 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' should be considered a favorite or not. 

Too much was happening on the stage at the same time, the camera shots were a bit all over the place and Baby Lasagna was probably a bit nervous appearing on a big stage for the first time. 

The Dora Final, two days after, cleared the air with Baby Lasagna being more confident and controlled and he never looked back. It took Croatia three days to reach #1 in odds.

Since then Croatia's odds are somewhere between 4.20-5.80 and it lost the lead momentarily during the Songvakeppnin Final before Bashar's flop.

'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' is a brilliant entry that oozes freshness and originality. There is a deeper meaning in the song but I am not sure how it could be communicated during the three minutes on stage without affecting the fun concept.

The staging could use a few changes to make it more coherent and relatable. Baby Lasagna teaming up with Kaarija's stage producer is a good sign but there is always the danger to be perceived as a Kaarija copycat which is not the case here.

I am confident that Croatia could be the Televoting winner or finish very close to the top and the million dollar question that will seal its fate is how well it can perform with the Juries.

They will need to be near the 175-200 pts threshold to keep the hopes for a win alive. I do think that 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' could be bought easier from Juries than 'Cha Cha Cha' that was a tad more aggressive.

My thinking is that Juries become softer and softer with this genre with the likes of Konstrakta, Go_A, Kaarija paving the way for the entries to come. It is not impossible for Croatia to reach that threshold.

The fact that we have very few Jury bait entries help its cause as well, with some of the Televote magnets covering the gap and getting these 3s-6s that are necessary.

In conclusion, Croatia deserves to be considered one of the favorites and will most probably get the best result in their history as an independent nation, but this is not a done deal yet. 

It reminds me of...

 Genre wise Finland '23, energy wise Italy '21

Televoting Potential: 10/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 10/10

Momentum: 9/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 46.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5%-15%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

5th-6th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 160-180

Final: Js: 125-225 - TV: 225-325 - Total: 350-550

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is my favorite entry for the year and I do wish Croatia to be the winner for various reasons ( alternative entry, originality, a country that has not won yet, a region that needs some boost to come back to the Contest).

However analysis and sentiment are not a very productive combination and I still think that Croatia has a bumpy road again. 

The first Semi -Final will be ground zero for Croatia's chances. 

Not sure this is the winner yet, but I fail to see Croatia finishing outside Top-3.

You can hear some thoughts about Croatia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 04

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