The dust is finally settling for Croatia a few weeks after Baby Lasagna settled in pole position for the Winner's market.
The first reaction in the Dora Semi - Final was a bit underwhelming and the market remained confused whether 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' should be considered a favorite or not.
Too much was happening on the stage at the same time, the camera shots were a bit all over the place and Baby Lasagna was probably a bit nervous appearing on a big stage for the first time.
The Dora Final, two days after, cleared the air with Baby Lasagna being more confident and controlled and he never looked back. It took Croatia three days to reach #1 in odds.
Since then Croatia's odds are somewhere between 4.20-5.80 and it lost the lead momentarily during the Songvakeppnin Final before Bashar's flop.
'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' is a brilliant entry that oozes freshness and originality. There is a deeper meaning in the song but I am not sure how it could be communicated during the three minutes on stage without affecting the fun concept.
The staging could use a few changes to make it more coherent and relatable. Baby Lasagna teaming up with Kaarija's stage producer is a good sign but there is always the danger to be perceived as a Kaarija copycat which is not the case here.
I am confident that Croatia could be the Televoting winner or finish very close to the top and the million dollar question that will seal its fate is how well it can perform with the Juries.
They will need to be near the 175-200 pts threshold to keep the hopes for a win alive. I do think that 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' could be bought easier from Juries than 'Cha Cha Cha' that was a tad more aggressive.
My thinking is that Juries become softer and softer with this genre with the likes of Konstrakta, Go_A, Kaarija paving the way for the entries to come. It is not impossible for Croatia to reach that threshold.
The fact that we have very few Jury bait entries help its cause as well, with some of the Televote magnets covering the gap and getting these 3s-6s that are necessary.
In conclusion, Croatia deserves to be considered one of the favorites and will most probably get the best result in their history as an independent nation, but this is not a done deal yet.
It reminds me of...
Genre wise Finland '23, energy wise Italy '21
Televoting Potential: 10/10
Jury Potential: 7.5/10
Staging Potential: 10/10
Momentum: 9/10
My Opinion: 10/10
Total: 46.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
5%-15%
Best case scenario:
Winner
Worst case scenario:
5th-6th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 160-180
Final: Js: 125-225 - TV: 225-325 - Total: 350-550
What do I see in my crystal ball?
This is my favorite entry for the year and I do wish Croatia to be the winner for various reasons ( alternative entry, originality, a country that has not won yet, a region that needs some boost to come back to the Contest).
However analysis and sentiment are not a very productive combination and I still think that Croatia has a bumpy road again.
The first Semi -Final will be ground zero for Croatia's chances.
Not sure this is the winner yet, but I fail to see Croatia finishing outside Top-3.
You can hear some thoughts about Croatia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 04
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