Sweden is here once again to claim its usual Top-5 place. Things are slightly more difficult this year with them opening the Grand Final after the draw that happened a few days ago.
There is a change this year with the televoting lines opening from the start of the first song that could potentially reduce the handicap but Sweden has still a mountain to climb.
The host nation will be represented by two Norwegians, the safest way to secure its first televoting set of twelve points in the 20's! That's right! Sweden has not received a televoting set of twelve since '19, even though they have won last year and finished fourth the year before!
'Unforgettable' won Melfest in style and does provide one of the most impressive stagings we have seen in recent years.
The main issue is the song itself. It is so lightweight that feels like a parody. There are some parts there that remind me of Faithless and the end is very Daft Punk but does fail to connect with the audience.
Melfest and the Swedish audience are two different fruits compared with the average European audience and the question here is if Sweden will continue to squeeze as many Jury points possible based on its staging excellency.
The Contest is heading for a more original, authentic and vulnerable direction but Sweden insists sending more formulaic and plasticky entries.
If Juries reward them with the usual Top-5 spot, they will need a lower Top-10 score with the Televote as well to end up in Top-5.
I do think that Sweden might have just enough to secure a Top-10 spot but 6th-8th feels like the ceiling for this one.
I do expect a Benjamin Ingrosso score with a lower Jury score and a bit higher Televote score.
It reminds me of...
Sweden '17, '18 (Q)
Televoting Potential: 6/10
Jury Potential: 8/10
Staging Potential: 10/10
Momentum: 8/10
My Opinion: 4/10
Total: 36/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1%-1%
Best case scenario:
Top-5
Worst case scenario:
13th-15th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
Final: Js: 100-200 - TV: 30-100 - Total: 130-300
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Sweden has not been my cup of cake for most part of the last decade, I do recognize thought their ability to create breathtaking stagings that captivate the jurors.
If the staging prevails, finishing 6th-8th feels like the right place for this one. I still think there is a chance to miss Top-10 because of its running order and the handicap that comes with it.
You can hear my thoughts about Sweden in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 06
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