Two years after the brilliant 'Space Man' and one year apart from the flop of 'I Wrote a Song', UK will try to settle the score whether the '22 result was the perfect storm or BBC is really trying to win the Contest.
The announcement of Olly Alexander and Danny L Harle back in December has risen the expectations so much that UK was leading the market at one point trading in single digits.
The release of 'Dizzy' however did not manage to satisfy these high expectations and UK has drifted from the 10's all the way to 50s.
The song per se is a very nice produced 90's pop entry that has many things for the jurors to pick up and appreciate. The talking part near the end is the best part and reminds us of Pet Shop Boys, with whom Olly has co-operated recently.
The biggest problem though is that the song is missing the moment and a climax. I get the impression that the song is used to launch Olly's solo career, giving him a big enough platform to promote himself.
It is radio friendly for sure, but unless BBC creates something very unique for the stage, I would not ruled out a Top-5 result with Juries and a Bottom-5 result with the Televote.
A similar result to the one mentioned above could be enough for UK to finish in Top-10 and that feels the only realistic target for this year.
I do have it a bit lower for the moment hovering between 11th-14th.
Televoting Potential: 5/10
Jury Potential: 8/10
Staging Potential: 8/10
Momentum: 7/10
My Opinion: 6/10
Total: 34/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1%-1%
Best case scenario:
Top-10
Worst case scenario:
16th-22nd
Pre-Contest estimated points:
Final: Js: 100-225 - TV: 15-50 - Total: 115-275
What do I see in my crystal ball?
UK needs a massive Jury score to be in the Top-10 and on paper it is possible. On the other hand the Televoting potential for this one feels limited.
The good thing for UK is that the expectations are currently not very high and that could give Olly some space to breathe and surprise us in a positive way.
I will go for 12th-14th.
You can hear my thoughts about Croatia in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05
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