'Europapa' has been one of the most anticipated entries of the year and the result has not disappointed Netherlands' fans.
Currently is the fifth favorite in Winner's market, however the first reaction has not been that positive, drifting all the way to 200+ a few hours after its release.
The number of streams convinced the market that we might have something here.
'Europapa' delivers exactly what we were expecting from Joost Klein as an artist. It should not be considered a joke entry, with a political pro-Europe message and a personal love letter to his late father. The 90's techno nostalgia bonds very well with the last 30 seconds of the piano that lands the viewers back on earth.
We are in for a great show and this is a given. Netherlands is heading for a Top-10 result that has not had since its win back in '19 but I am very skeptical about its contender status.
The main reason that Netherlands' odds have shortened is the number of streams that is impressive but I do suspect that it comes from a very specific region (Benelux with a bit of Germany, Austria and the Baltic). Not sure that this one will perform very well in Eastern and Southern Europe and this is a problem since its win path demands 325+ Televote points.
The other concern is the Jury appeal. I am not sure that the jurors will get behind this one and award its artistic merit or the hit potential. Even though it is not a joke entry, many might consider it one and that is a deal breaker.
For the reasons mentioned above I do think that Netherlands should have enough to finish 8th-10th but would not be surprised to see it finishing mid-table 12th-15th.
Top-5 feels like its ceiling if everything goes its way.
It reminds me of...
Moldova '22 (Q), Finland '23 (Q)
Televoting Potential: 8.5/10
Jury Potential: 6/10
Staging Potential: 9/10
Momentum: 7.5/10
My Opinion: 8/10
Total: 39/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
.2%-1%
Best case scenario:
Top-5
Worst case scenario:
14th-17th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 90-120
Final: Js: 25-125 - TV: 75-175 - Total: 100-300
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Netherlands finishing 11th like they did back in '16 and '17. They do have a very difficult task to stage this one in the best possible way to maximize the televote points without compromising any Jury points.
I am still dubious of its pan-European appeal.
You can hear my thoughts about Netherlands in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05
No comments:
Post a Comment